Although Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart did provide some excitement racing for the win down the stretch, there wasn't much other drama in Richmond on Sunday afternoon.
|
|
| Kyle Busch has looked vulnerable near the end of the season, but he shouldn't be overlooked. (AP) |
While bubble boy Clint Bowyer had a few stressful moments when he was mired back in traffic around the race's midpoint, David Ragan and Kasey Kahne couldn't make up the necessary ground to break into the Chase field.
So as the fifth edition of the Chase gets ready to unfold, let's take a look at the contenders and pretenders for this year's Sprint Cup crown and a predicted order of finish:
1. Jimmie Johnson (Odds to Win Title: 3-2)
Johnson is doing exactly what he did a year ago on his way to a second straight title, coming off the regular season with a great deal of momentum and confidence. The No. 48 has rolled into victory lane three times in the last seven races and even when Johnson dominated the way he did a week ago in Fontana, crew chief Chad Knaus and company seem to think they can do better. There's no substitute for the experience Johnson and this team have after running for and winning the title the last two seasons and that familiarity -– coupled with the rocket ship of a car at his disposal every week -– seems to add up to a three-peat.
2. Kyle Busch (Odds to Win Title: 2-1)
Suddenly Busch looks mortal, due in part to everyone running into the Johnson buzz saw the last few weeks. But the No. 18 team missed the set-up in Fontana and were way off in Richmond, which led to other problems compounding the matter. Busch can’t afford to play catch-up every weekend or will be behind the Johnson juggernaut in a matter of weeks. This team will definitely make some noise but needs to recapture that swagger from earlier in the year.
3. Carl Edwards (Odds to Win Title: 3-1)
Edwards has a major advantage in the 10-race Chase with the large number of intermediate tracks on the schedule. The No. 99 has been at its best on 1.5- and two-mile tracks this year and that could play into Edwards putting together another one of those hot streaks that punctuated his late summer. Like Busch, Edwards needs to get off to a good start and not fall into a position of a chaser if he wants to come out on top of the Chase.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Odds to Win Title: 12-1)
Junior has put together a very consistent regular season but unless crew chief Tony Eury Jr. can find a way to get the No. 88 into Victory Lane once or twice during the Chase, this team doesn't have enough to run down the top trio. A quick win would help Earnhardt's psyche immensely and that could happen at either Loudon or Dover where he has run well.
5. Greg Biffle (Odds to Win Title: 15-1)
Like his Roush Fenway Racing teammate Edwards, Biffle could have an upper hand at the intermediate-track portion of the schedule. He is capable of winning in bunches, as he did in his breakout season of 2005, and victories during the Chase will be vital to his championship aspirations.
6. Jeff Gordon (Odds to Win Title: 25-1)
Gordon does have the experience of winning championships, but none under the Chase format. Although the No. 24 team seems to have righted the ship in the second half of the season and brought better set-ups to tracks they struggled at earlier in the year, Gordon has not been in contention for a win pretty much all season.
7. Jeff Burton (Odds to Win Title: 30-1)
Burton has hung around the top of the standings all year long and in past Chase appearances stayed near the lead at least in the early going. But the veteran has to eliminate the trend of fading as the playoff runs winds down.
8. Kevin Harvick (Odds to Win Title: 45-1)
Harvick's run at Richmond on Sunday was by far the best of his season. But after running in the lead early and in the lead pack after dropping off the point for a while, the No. 29 slid backward as the race progressed. Harvick and the RCR team need to find a way to sustain their competitiveness to have any shot of pulling off an upset championship.
9. Denny Hamlin (Odds to Win Title: 50-1)
Hamlin should shine at the flat tracks in New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix. But unless the No. 11 runs the table at those three tracks, Hamlin won't be in the title picture because he'll more than likely struggle at the other seven tracks in the Chase.
10. Matt Kenseth (Odds to Win Title: 60-1)
In the Chase but has been missing in action most of 2008. Whenever you look up the No. 17 does seem to be in the top 10, but he'll need more than that to happen in the 10 Chase races to win the title.11. Tony Stewart (Odds to Win Title: 65-1)
Smoke showed some life at Richmond, which has been missing throughout the summer months when everyone expected him to put together one of his patented runs. Whether it's the mental stress of starting his own team next year and not being as focused as necessary, Stewart hasn't demonstrated any reason to believe he can contend for a title this year.
