If there is any town where you really hope your luck changes, it's Las Vegas.
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| Matt Kenseth is 36th in the standings after the first two races. (Getty Images) |
Kenseth has started the 2005 season the way he ended 2004 -- terrible. He finished 2004 with a wreck, two blown engines and an average finish of 22.8 over his last nine races. The late-season fade caused him to fall to eighth in the final points standings just a year after he won his first NASCAR Cup championship.
At first glance, it appears the cold spell has continued into 2005. Kenseth finished 42nd at Daytona and 26th at California, dumping him to 36th in points after two races.
But Kenseth's two finishes this year can be summed up with two words: bad luck. He was running well at Daytona when he blew an engine just 34 laps into the race. At California, he was in the top five with a chance to win when he cut a tire late.
Both mishaps were totally out of his control.
"Sometimes you can't get anything to go wrong and no matter what you do, you can't mess up," says Kenseth, who rode good fortune to the 2003 title. "Then at other times you really can't get anything to go right. The last couple months of last season and the start to this one has been a time where we can't seem to get things to go right."
What Kenseth needs is a stroke of luck, and there's no better place for him to find it than at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, where he has won the past two races.
In fact, the odds are heavily in his favor. Not only is he on a two-race winning streak there, but his Roush Racing organization has won five of the seven Las Vegas races.
And Roush is on a streak of its own, winning with Greg Biffle at California and -- except for Kenseth -- getting off to a strong start. Defending champion Kurt Busch has finished second and third and leads the points race after two events. Teammates Mark Martin, Carl Edwards and Biffle rank third, fourth and fifth.
So does that mean it's Kenseth's turn to succeed? Possibly, but even the pre-race favorite knows he will need a dose of luck.
"It changes every year. Even the past two years we were fortunate enough to be able to win, but we didn't necessarily run the same setup both years," he said. "Things change, and you have to change with the times and change with the rules and technology and that type of thing."
Adapting to change will be a common theme for most of this season, especially the first quarter. Cup teams are adjusting to smaller rear spoiler that reduce downforce and softer tires that wear out quicker.
