Chase case can be made for all, but the pick here is Kenseth

Jeff Gordon has the experience, having won four NASCAR Cup titles.

Jimmie Johnson is due, finishing second twice and making a strong run at the Cup title each of the past three years.

Kasey Kahne has won three of his five races on tracks that are on the Chase schedule. (Getty Images)

Mark Martin is overdue, finishing in the top five in points 12 times, but never winning a Cup title. He's the sentimental favorite.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the fan favorite, and probably NASCAR's. Imagine the boon the sport would experience if its most popular driver won the Chase for the Nextel Cup.

Kasey Kahne is also a fan favorite -- a female fan favorite. He's also a statistical favorite, having won a season-high five races, three of them on Chase tracks.

Kevin Harvick has momentum, having won the last race before the Chase at Richmond. He also has a strong following as the man who replaced Dale Earnhardt. There's some sentimental value in that as well -- he could be the first driver since Earnhardt in 1994 to bring a championship to Richard Childress Racing.

RCR teammate Jeff Burton fits that billing as well. He also gets the sympathy vote. This is his first championship run since 2000, and he hasn't won in 174 starts.

Kyle Busch, 21, and Denny Hamlin, 25, are the underdogs, the two young drivers who aren't supposed to be here and who no one is giving a chance. Everyone loves an underdog, and in this quirky championship format, it's anybody's ballgame.

So which one will win the Chase for the Nextel Cup and capture NASCAR's $5 million prize?

None of them.

That honor will go to the quietest, most unassuming, most often-overlooked driver in the Chase -- Matt Kenseth.

He doesn't have the winning tradition of Gordon. Or the popularity and fan base of Earnhardt Jr. Or the sentimental backing of Martin, Harvick or Burton.

Or the sex appeal of Kahne. Or the youthful exuberance of Busch or Hamlin.

All he does is win. In his own quiet, unassuming, fly-under-the-radar way.

Kenseth and his No. 17 Roush Racing team are the New England Patriots of NASCAR. They aren't flashy. They aren't explosive. They aren't overpowering or dominant. And they don't seem to have some magic potion or secret formula.

All they do is win.

They are as steady as they come, lulling the competition to sleep and taking advantage of every opportunity that comes their way.

Kenseth -- an avid Green Bay Packers fan -- won four races this year, including back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol just a few weeks ago to gain momentum entering the Chase.

He hasn't dominated the series but has been consistent enough to climb to the top of the point standings, scoring a series-high 13 top five finishes. His 16 top 10s are second only to Johnson, who led the standings much of the season.

Based on their performances in the first 26 races, Johnson and Kenseth are the overwhelming favorites to win the title.

Kenseth has the edge for two reasons: He has won a championship before, and Johnson and his team have a tendency to choke during championship runs.

Johnson has been good enough to have won three titles already -- his 16 wins are the most of any driver over the past three years. He has come close, but he has been unable to close the deal.

The one year in which Kenseth's team seemed to be in championship stride, he ran away with the title in 2003.

"This feels a lot like 2003," team owner Jack Roush says.

That's because it is. Kenseth is primed to win another title, and this is the year.

Kenseth was the last to win the title when it was the Winston Cup Series. Now he will become the second to win a Winston Cup and a Nextel Cup, after Tony Stewart.

He was also the last driver to win it under NASCAR's old points system. He was so consistent that season, and built such a huge lead, that NASCAR switched to the Chase the next season.

Coincidentally, NASCAR officials are already talking about tweaking the Chase format again next season.

Just after Kenseth wins his second title.

This week's prediction: Kyle Busch. Busch will win the battle at New Hampshire, but Kenseth will keep his advantage in the 10-race war. Busch won at New Hampshire in July and will likely repeat. He starts the Chase fourth in points, 15 behind Kenseth. The win won't be quite enough to grab Kenseth's point lead.

Keep an eye on: Kevin Harvick. The only driver with more momentum than Kenseth entering the Chase is third-place Harvick, who has won two of the past five races, including last week's 26th race at Richmond. New Hampshire, where he finished fifth in July, is a similar layout, so Harvick should be strong again.

Also keep an eye on: Jimmie Johnson. Many are expecting Johnson to choke again, giving the title away. Don't bet on it. Johnson will likely come out swinging at New Hampshire, where he swept both races in 2003 and usually runs well. He is typically strong at the start of the Chase, fading at the end. Expect a repeat.

Dark horses: Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards and Ryan Newman. All five made the Chase last year. All five missed it this year. And none of them are too happy about it. All five also run well at New Hampshire, with Stewart, Busch and Newman all having won there and Edwards and Biffle running second and third in July. Don't be surprised if one of them spoils the first Chase party.

Jeff Owens is executive editor of NASCAR Scene and a columnist for CBS SportsLine.