ST. LOUIS -- There is a rule of thumb in any draft that features depth over marquee players, as did the 2001 lottery, which on Saturday wound its way through the first three rounds: Quantity counts every bit as much as quality.
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| Coach Mike Martz has reason to smile after a great first day of the draft for his Rams.(AP) | |
Sometimes even more so.
The franchises that possess extra selections, especially in the middle rounds, tend to benefit much more in such drafts. Get multiple first-round choices, though, and that certainly can be a formula for success, although not always. The Indianapolis Colts, for instance, had the first two choices in the 1992 draft, took Steve Emtman and Quentin Coryatt, and then watched both of them become injury-prone busts.
Time will tell the story of the 2001 draft far better than a knee-jerk estimate to separate the winners and losers on the opening day of the lottery.
But based on a first glance, it certainly appears that it paid to have extra choices. The St. Louis Rams, with three selections in the top 29, laid the foundation for rebuilding a shoddy defense. The Seattle Seahawks used one first rounder to take a player who might be the second coming of Randy Moss and another to get a guard, Steve Hutchinson, who should never have fallen to the 17th choice overall.
And the Old Master, general manager and renowned draft wheeler-dealer Bill Walsh of the San Francisco 49ers, demonstrated in his last hurrah that he still knows how to shake and bake on draft day, to move up and down in rounds in an attempt to land additional bodies.
"Picking a winner in any draft is about as inexact a science as the draft itself," said Walsh. "It makes good reading, that's all."
We're not even suggesting that's the case with what follows. But here's a snapshot look at three winners and three losers on Saturday:
Winners
St. Louis
At least two of the team's three first-round picks, tackle Damione Lewis and safety Adam Archuleta, will be immediate starters in a revamped defensive unit. The Rams dramatically improved their overall speed defensively, a must given the one-gap scheme that new coordinator Lovie Smith will install.
Baltimore
It's great to be good, and the Ravens are. It's sometimes better to be lucky, and vice president of personnel Ozzie Newsome was that, too, in the first day of choices. Tight end Todd Heap of Arizona State was a top 15 athlete who plummeted all the way to the final choice in the first round, where the Ravens were only too happy to serve as his safety net. It might rank, when all is scrutinized, as the steal of the entire draft. The team's second-rounder, Gary Baxter, can play safety or cornerback and was once considered a first-round possibility.
Atlanta
Yeah, coach Dan Reeves collects tight ends like knick-knacks for the mantel and the selection of Alge Crumpler in the second round was dubious. But you've still got to credit the team, and owner Taylor Smith, for making the bold move to get Michael Vick. For a franchise that is cash-strapped, it was gutsy. Then again, this moribund team had to do something to excite its dwindling fan base.
Losers
Dallas
Uh, let's see, the Cowboys had no first-round pick because of the Joey Galloway trade of a year ago. Galloway, of course, worked out so well, didn't he, blowing out his knee in the opener last September. Then owner Jerry Jones kept dealing down in the second round and the Cowboys' first pick of the day was quarterback Quincy Carter of Georgia. Note to Jerry: I've seen the guy play. He's a great athlete posing as a quarterback. Maybe he'll be a starter -- in like five years.
Indianapolis
The defense-desperate Colts dealt down from their original No. 22 position in the first round, which meant they missed out on cornerbacks Will Allen, Willie Middlebrooks and Jamar Fletcher. And what did they wind up with? Miami wide receiver Reggie Wayne. There is no question we like Wayne a lot, and some people feel he is more polished than nearly every wide receiver in the lottery. But, geez, he's also a lot like current Colts wideout E.G. Green, who has been nothing but injured since entering the league. The team made a great pick in the second round, getting Idrees Bashir of Memphis. But he is as raw as steak tartare and might not be able to contribute on anything but special teams for a year.
Cincinnati
Oh, those poor Bungles. Look, maybe defensive end Justin Smith will turn out to be a great first-round pick. But we've got a 10-spot that says he will never play in a Pro Bowl or notch double-digit sacks in a season. Then in the second round, way too desperate for speed at the wideout position, they grabbed Chad Johnson. Maybe they didn't get the memo about Johnson's probation hearing next month, huh? Or talk to any of the Division I coaches he blew off during the recruiting process when he was coming out of high school. Maybe it's time owner Mike Brown actually follows through on his oft-made vow to hire more scouts. Or maybe let former beat reporter Geoff "Butch" Hobson, who now edits the Bengals' Internet site, make the picks.