With the NFL Draft less than a month away, it's time for a first attempt at the futile task that is the mock draft.

Just don't hold me to it.

David Carr appears to be the one sure thing in this draft. (AP)

Plenty can change between now and April 20-21, but this is how I think it would go if the league's teams made their picks today.

A lot of things can make a team switch up. It can sign a free agent, taking it out of the draft market for that position.

It can also mess up early mock drafts, as it did this one on Tuesday.

When Buffalo signed Denver left tackle Trey Teague, it could have signaled that the Bills will not take one of the two outstanding tackles available in this draft. They have a rising star on the right side in second-year tackle Jonas Jennings, so perhaps it's a hint they'll take Oregon quarterback Joey Harrington -- or trade out of the spot.

We're saying they're taking Harrington.

In the next three weeks, as the NFL overanalyzes these players, trying to find what they can't do instead of what they can do, players will rise and players will fall. Character black marks will surface, dropping players down and out of the first round.

Background checks that would make the CIA envious will be conducted on all the top prospects. If any of them beat up a kid in the fifth grade, the NFL will know.

Good soldiers need not worry. In fact, they might actually move up the board as the old debate rages on: Good player and decent kid vs. great player and not-so-great kid.

Those who figure that out are usually the best drafting teams.

The top pick in this year's draft is literally a done deal. The Texans will select Fresno State quarterback David Carr. Offensive coordinator Chris Palmer has practically adopted Carr, speaking to him on a regular basis, and the team is already in contract talks with his agent.

That's one pick none of us mock guys will miss. So pencil Carr in at No. 1, a pick that shouldn't change.

But if it does, remember one thing: You didn't hold me to it.

1. Houston Texans, David Carr, QB, Fresno State: Aside from a low delivery, which the Texans will change, Carr has all the intangibles. He will become one of those franchise quarterbacks.

2. Carolina Panthers, Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina: He's the best of a poor group of outside pass-rushers. Peppers had a decent workout for scouts Tuesday, but he's too good a football player to pass up for being a second off in his 40 time. Could the Panthers also be tempted to take top corner Quentin Jammer?

3. Detroit Lions, Quentin Jammer, CB, Texas: The Lions will strongly consider taking Joey Harrington here, but the early talk is the team feels Mike McMahon can be the quarterback of the future.

4. Buffalo Bills, Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon: You didn't really think they thought Alex Van Pelt was their quarterback of the future, did you? Harrington is another pure pocket passer who will be a Pro Bowl player. Buffalo has to find a quarterback somewhere.

5. San Diego Chargers, Bryant McKinnie, T, Miami: He has never allowed a sack on any level and is really new to the game of football having played just six years. At 6-feet-9, 340, he's a big tackle with athletic feet. The Chargers are badly in need of an upgrade at tackle.

6. Dallas Cowboys, William Green, RB, Boston College: Some teams are off Green because he didn't run that well and because there are some character issues. The Cowboys love his big-play ability, and owner Jerry Jones attended his private workout. If Jammer fell here, the Cowboys would grab him.

7. Minnesota Vikings, Mike Williams, T, Texas: The death of Korey Stringer was a big hit to this team a year ago. Williams can be a dominating player at the right tackle spot, his position at Texas. There are some injury concerns, but he has checked out on a lot of teams' draft boards.

8. Kansas City Chiefs, Donte Stallworth, WR, Tennessee: His individual workout has his stock soaring. But he was also very good in the last four games of the 2001 season, which should be the real reason he goes this high. The Chiefs have to get an upgrade at wide receiver.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars, Ryan Sims, DT, North Carolina: This is the safe pick from among John Henderson (back), Albert Haynesworth (attitude issues) and Sims. The Jaguars need another big body in the middle, and Sims will pair with Marcus Stroud to beef up the run defense.

10. Cincinnati Bengals, Wendell Bryant, DT, Wisconsin: Now that they have signed Jeff Burris to play corner, they can upgrade the interior of the defensive line. Bryant dominated the Big Ten and has had some impressive workouts.

11. Indianapolis Colts, Roy Williams, S, Oklahoma: New coach Tony Dungy loves big-hitting safeties who can play the run (John Lynch). Williams is that and a lot more. If the Colts don't think Cory Bird is the answer, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Also could go corner here.

12. Arizona Cardinals, Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee: A dominating force in the middle who will only get better in the NFL. The Cardinals have to improve the pass rush, and he will be able to do that. Working with line coach Joe Greene will help.

13. New Orleans Saints, Phillip Buchanon, CB, Miami: Even after signing Dale Carter, the Saints won't be able to pass up the second-rated corner in the draft. Buchanon is smallish but has big-time cover and return skills. With Carter, Fred Thomas and Buchanon, the Saints will have a very good trio.

14. Tennessee Titans, John Henderson, DT, Tennessee: Much more heralded than his teammate, Henderson has some issues regarding his back. If he checks out OK, Henderson could be a 10-year starter. The loss of Jason Fisk and Josh Evans makes this a priority.

15. New York Giants, Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami Hurricanes: Adding another weapon for quarterback Kerry Collins is a must. The Giants need a threat in the middle of the field to help open up the outside passing game.

16. Cleveland Browns, T.J. Duckett, RB, Michigan State: The Browns made a run at Ricky Williams before he was traded to Miami. Duckett is a power back with speed who would seem to be ideal in the system run by Butch Davis.

17. Atlanta Falcons, Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii: This is a team trying to get faster. Lelie is one of the fastest receivers in this draft. He is tall, but there are concerns about his ability to get off the press. But Michael Vick needs a go-to receiver with deep speed. Lelie is that guy.

18. Washington Redskins, Andre Gurode, G, Colorado: Steve Spurrier couldn't possibly take Jabar Gaffney to add to his collection of Florida receivers, could he? He could, but he won't. The guess here is that the offensive line will be addressed. The Redskins have major issues at the guard spots, so Gurode could be the choice.

19. Denver Broncos, Kalimba Edwards, DE, South Carolina: This is a team in dire need of an upgrade of the outside pass rush. That could come from Edwards. He is an outstanding edge rusher who has been compared to John Abraham of the Jets.

20. Seattle Seahawks, Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado: With the departure of Christian Fauria, Mike Holmgren needs a threat to help open up the offense. Graham can get deep, but he is also strong enough at the point of attack.

21. Oakland Raiders, Napoleon Harris, LB, Northwestern: He is clearly the best of the linebackers, an athletic player who will bring youth to an aging linebacker corps. Could also go for a defensive tackle or end here.

22. N.Y. Jets, Larry Tripplett, DT, Washington: He is the perfect player for the Herman Edwards-style of defense. He is a quick, penetrating tackle (Warren Sapp mold) who can create problems in the pass rush. The Jets would love to have help at that position.

23. Oakland Raiders, Charles Grant, DE, Georgia: Here is a player who is soaring up the draft boards. In a poor class of pass-rushers, Grant is a wanted commodity. Could come in and liven up a so-so pass rush in Oakland.

24. Baltimore Ravens, Levi Jones, T, Arizona State: With a young passer in Chris Redman, the Ravens had better protect him. Jones played on the left side in college, but he can move to the right side in Baltimore.

25. New Orleans Saints (from Miami), Jabar Gaffney, WR, Florida: The Saints badly want to upgrade the receiver spot. Gaffney has played in an NFL-type system and should be able to contribute right away.

26. Philadelphia Eagles, Eddie Freeman, DT, Alabama-Birmingham: They must get a big body to help take the pressure off Corey Simon. Freeman is a power player who can hold the point of attack. His stock has risen since the end of the 2001 season.

27. San Francisco 49ers, Lito Sheppard, CB, Florida: The 49ers have a good corner duo in Ahmed Plummer and Jason Webster, but there are some who feel Webster is better suited to being a nickel back. Sheppard and Plummer could form a nice duo.

28. Green Bay Packers, Anthony Weaver, DT, Notre Dame: The signing of Joe Johnson helps address the end position, but there needs to be better play inside. Weaver is a hard-working player who will be a solid pro.

29. Chicago Bears, Mike Pearson, T, Florida: The future of Blake Brockermeyer is uncertain, and right tackle James Williams is on his last legs. Pearson has outstanding feet and will improve as a run-blocker as he learns better technique.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers, Dennis Johnson, DE, Kentucky: The Steelers always like having big bodies at end to occupy blockers. Johnson is 6-6, 270 and will be able to put on another 15 pounds. He should be able to bring some pass-rush skills to the position as well.

31. St. Louis Rams, Toniu Fonoti, G, Nebraska: The Rams would like an upgrade over Tom Nutten, and this pick will help force him to play better or sit down. Mike Martz could also be tempted by the deep speed of Andre Davis.

32. New England Patriots, Josh Reed, WR, LSU: The Pats won a Super Bowl with the help of some outstanding receiving play from Troy Brown and David Patten. But they would still like an upgrade at the position. Reed has run better than most NFL scouts thought he would, so he has moved into the first round.