Unlikely? Never before? We say 'why not' in 2002
Dennis Dodd
By Dennis Dodd
SportsLine.com Senior Writer
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In the heart of the offseason, it never hurts to dream. That's why we present these five scenarios -- or "Why Nots" -- for the upcoming season.

In no particular order, we ask why these things can't happen:

Washington State wins the Pac-10

Washington State's Mike Price might be next in line to win the Pac-10.  
Washington State's Mike Price might be next in line to win the Pac-10. (Allsport) 
Why not? Eight schools have won or shared the conference title over the past seven years, including Washington State in 1997. This season, it might be the Cougs' turn again.

They might have been the most anonymous good team in the country last year, going 10-2 and finishing a game behind Oregon.

This is coach Mike Price's best team in his 14 years in Pullman. The offensive and defensive lines are the best in the Pac-10. Quarterback Jason Gesser continues a long, glorious quarterback tradition (Ryan Leaf, Drew Bledsoe, Timm Rosenbach, Mark Rypien). The Washington game is at home.

What's not to like? Price is one of the best coaches in the country but, like his program, is largely unknown. Fourteen starters return from a team that won 10 games for the first time since 1931. Price thinks junior college transfer running back Jermaine Green is the Cougs' best running back since Steve Broussard was Pac-10 offensive player of the year in 1989.

Nebraska's streak -- 33 nine-win seasons in a row -- ends

Why not? The Huskers are decimated both mentally and physically after the Rose Bowl ambush.

Jammal Lord has to replace Heisman Trophy winner Eric Crouch. Lord has thrown 65 passes in the past four years (going back to high school). Dahrran Diedrick is not a go-to I-back despite leading the Big 12 in rushing. The defensive backfield, a strength last year, has to be rebuilt.

There are trips to Penn State, Iowa State, Texas A&M and Kansas State. The only lifesaver is that Nebraska plays 13 regular-season games, so it might be able to eke out a 9-4 record.

There is some serious back-to-the-drawing board stuff here. The Miami game showed how far behind the Huskers are in terms of team speed. The program spent 10 years catching up after losing to Miami in the 1984 Orange Bowl. Now it looks like Nebraska has to hit the recruiting trail hard again to compete with the Florida schools.

Nebraska will continue to compete for Big 12 titles, but national titles are a long way off.

BCS will crash and burn -- again

Why not? The addition of the 12th game this year makes it more likely that there will be a train wreck at the end of the season.

Figure it this way: A 12th game makes it less likely for any team to go undefeated. More wear. More tear. More chance to lose, especially at the end of the season. That conjures up an image of four or five teams finishing 11-1. How are the computers going to sort that out? Most likely the team that lost the earliest will have the inside track.

That means watch out for a possible Texas-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl. Here's the scenario: Oklahoma beats Texas on Oct. 12. Oklahoma then loses at Texas A&M on Nov. 9 but still finishes 12-1 with a Big 12 title game victory.

After losing to Oklahoma, Texas then wins the rest of its games and goes 11-1. Because the 'Horns lone loss would have come two months before the BCS bowls are announced, Texas would have plenty of time to move up the polls with games left against Kansas State, Nebraska and Texas A&M.

Yup, you got it. For the second straight year, a conference champion would be playing a second-place team from a Big 12 division (in this case, Texas). For the first time, the two schools would be from the same conference.

SEC shocks the world -- again

Why not? The league that gave us the BCS, academic scandal and Steve Spurrier might be ready to drop another bomb.

The prevailing thinking is that the next commissioner will be a college president type in response to the league's NCAA troubles. This is only speculation, but word on the street says that the league might hire Conference USA commissioner Mike Slive and Ohio Valley commissioner Dan Beebe.

Slive once teamed with former NCAA investigator/lawyer Mike Glazier in troubleshooting for schools looking at NCAA penalties. He has taken Conference USA to the brink of the BCS.

The word is that Slive would come into the SEC as commissioner with Beebe as his right hand man. Beebe is a former NCAA enforcement officer and could be hired to oversee an SEC enforcement arm that is being advocated by Mississippi chancellor Robert Khayat.

Big news because it would impact three conferences, one of them the traditional biggest football power.

There will be a freshman invasion

Why not? Players are bigger, faster and stronger at a younger age. Tommie Harris had an immediate impact last year for Oklahoma in the defensive line and Chance Kretschmer led the nation in rushing for Nevada.

OK, Kretschmer was a redshirt freshman, but he was still seeing his first action as a teenager.

Look for these freshmen to have an immediate impact: BYU quarterback Ben Olson, Florida State running back Lorenzo Booker, Texas receiver Marquis Johnson, Missouri running back Mario Whitney, Oregon defensive lineman Haloti Ngata, Virginia Tech quarterback Marcus Vick, Texas defensive lineman Rodrique Wright, Ohio State running back Maurice Clarett.

Summer safety

Credit the NCAA for moving quickly in closing the summer loopholes for players working out during the offseason.

An NCAA director of championships, Dennis Poppe, said this week that three influential football committees are working quickly on protecting athletes in the offseason. Already, it is allowable for incoming freshmen in summer school to be overseen by trainers and strength coaches while on campus.

Poppe works with the Football Oversight Committee, Football Issues Study Committee and Postseason Certification Sub-committee that oversees the bowls.

The NCAA board of directors has proposed legislation that would allow a staff member (probably a trainer) to call off practice in the event of heat, illness, etc. The so-called "voluntary" offseason practices have been under fire since last summer when Northwestern's Rashidi Wheeler died.

It was advocated in this space last year that the NCAA simply turn players free in the summer. Let them enjoy summer vacations on their own. One problem the NCAA has with that: It envisioned a scenario where local health clubs would open up their facilities for free to State U. players. The extra benefit could even go as far as the health club "advertising" (by word of mouth or paid ads) that it had the football team practicing at its facility, in order to draw customers.

The NCAA also didn't like players having unregulated access to the nutritional supplements that are sold by health clubs.

Margin for error

With the BCS ready to get rid of victory margin in the computers, it seemed logical to ask about the NCAA's basketball RPI.

Similar computer ratings, similar input -- victories, strength of opponent but no victory margin in RPI.

Going off on a rank: Dog Days
Bored? Here are the top 10 things to do while we're smack dab in the middle of the offseason.
10. Scalp Tulane tickets.
9. Immerse yourself in Boulder, Colo., and South Bend, Ind., police reports.
8. Take me out to the ... never mind. They're going on strike anyway.
7. Four words: Scooby Doo chat room!
6. Join Bobby Bowden's Civil War book club.
5. For gosh sakes, double check that resume
4. Admit it. You've always wanted to see Lansing, Mich., in the summertime.
3. More 'voluntary' workouts.
2. Commit to San Diego State. How can you lose?
1. Camp out for tickets to Holtzstock '02.

We talked to Gary Johnson who oversees the RPI for the NCAA. He said the reason the RPI doesn't incorporate victory margin is concerns about gambling and the fear of coaches running up the score.

The latter reason is why the BCS fathers initially wanted to take out victory margin last year (it was removed from four of the eight computers). Coaches didn't want to be put in the uncomfortable position of playing to the computer.

After Oregon lost out on the Rose Bowl last year, victory margin was a new concern. Oregon won five games by seven points or less. Meanwhile, Nebraska beat eight BCS schools by an average of 24.9 points.

Taking the victory margin out of the BCS isn't going to change the gambling element. Betting on college football is an American pastime. The BCS commissioners are meeting this week in San Francisco trying to figure out the system for 2002. Whatever it is, look for the BCS to remain unchanged through the 2005 season when the latest contract expires.

"The more you eliminate the less reliable the measurement is," said Chicago-based expert Jerry Palm. "But if you have it (victory margin) then it can be a problem with running up the score. You know what's going to happen? Whatever they change, it's going to change something else."

Exit polls

This consensus emerged from a recent compilation of 13 preseason top 25s. They were compiled from websites (including SportsLine.com), newspapers and magazines. (Editorial comment added)

  1. Miami -- Too much talent not to be considered favorites again.
  2. Oklahoma -- All Jason White has to do is stay healthy.
  3. Texas -- Still looking to get over the hump.
  4. Florida State -- Everybody's pick to return to the top five.
  5. Tennessee -- Most talent in the reshuffled SEC.
  6. Florida -- Zook Dog takes over with a loaded roster.
  7. Washington -- Negative recruiting but a positive outlook.
  8. Colorado -- The Buffs actually get better at quarterback despite losing their starter.
  9. Georgia -- Mark Richt makes a huge impact in his second year.
  10. Nebraska -- Insiders say the Huskers have four losses in them. Not bad if they win nine again.

Quick Hits

  • The mother of Missouri receiver Justin Gage has patented a child seat for young fans at football games. Ernestine Gage spent thousands of dollars of her own money to patent the seat that features a tray, space for a cup and storage space for toys. There's something special in that family. Gage himself is a two-sport star who helped Missouri's basketball team to the Elite Eight last season. Gage plans to give up his final semester of basketball eligibility next year to make himself available for the NFL Draft.

  • Sign of the times. A man identifying himself as a college recruiter in the Lawrence, Kan., area has been charged with possession of child pornography. According to reports, the man would call local high school athletes and make sexually explicit comments.

  • Reason why Texas should win, can win and has to win. The athletic department budget for the next school year is $59 million.

  • From the everyone-finds-their-level department: Former Kentucky coach Hal Mumme has interviewed for the job at Southeastern Louisiana. The school is bringing back football in 2003 after a 17-year absence.

 
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