LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- As if we didn't have enough mixed signals being sent our way, Wednesday's random draw of post positions brought out even more ambiguities about this 123rd running of the Kentucky Derby.
The prerace picture is about as clear as pea soup, and now they're saying a cold front is moving in and we can expect raindrops in our mint juleps come Saturday afternoon.
This is one of those races that everybody can win ... and nobody can win. Pick a horse, any horse, and then either make a case for it or shoot it full of holes. Sometimes both can be done in the same breath.
But before we get to the post-position draw, Ellen apparently wasn't the only one "coming out" Wednesday. So was D. Wayne Lukas, trying to become the first trainer ever to win three derbies in a row.
JUST WHEN IT APPEARED HIS marathon streak would be snapped at 16 consecutive Derby appearances, Lukas came up with an 11th-hour entry -- Deeds Not Words, a 50-1 longshot.
But Lukas isn't apologizing. Nor is he being ignored. There isn't another horseman alive who could enter a 50-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby and turn it into the biggest story between now and post time Saturday.
Meanwhile, Pulpit -- favorite at 2-1 -- is trying to become the first unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby since the Industrial Revolution, and Captain Bodgit -- second choice at 5-2 -- was bought and sold less than 90 days ago.
Both horses, if you take a close second look, received less than enviable draws:
Among the top six entries, the best-suited draws go to George Steinbrenner's 8-1 speed horse Concerto, drawing Babe Ruth's No. 3 for a post position, and 5-1 Silver Charm, starting from the No. 5 hole under the whip of newest Hall of Famer Gary Stevens.
PHANTOM ON TOUR, STUCK INSIDE at No. 2, is battling a blood disorder. His white-blood-cell count has been diagnosed as too high. On Wednesday, trainer Lynn Whiting had his prized chestnut colt jog two miles and postpone his normal workout until Thursday.
"I liked his body language," Whiting said of Phantom On Tour, whose odds hold steady at 12-1. "He wanted to play."
>So did D. Wayne Lukas. He's still the story here, even with a horse that is winless in two races as a 3-year-old.
Lukas is the Bill Walsh of thoroughbred trainers. Conversely, Deeds Not Words has a career record of 1-0-2 in four starts.
It isn't much, but it's gotten Lukas' foot in the barn door here for a 17th year in a row.
"I've won a lot of important races in my life that I entered where I don't belong," said Lukas, growing a tad defensive.
WHEN IT CAME TO DRAWING a post position -- No. 11 -- for Deeds Not Words, only a handful of people in the room seemed to even care.
That was the 1988 post position of Lukas-trained Winning Colors, the last filly to win a Kentucky Derby.
Needing to give explanations to reporters for his decision to enter a 50-1 longshot, Lukas added, "The (threatening) weather was a factor. This horse is outstanding on a muddy track."
Oh, that's it.
So keep in mind that if it's a sloppy track Saturday, 5-2 Captain Bodgit and 50-1 Deeds Not Words are both mudders.
But only one of them can possibly win.
Ray Buck is CBS SportsLine's national columnist.
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