It's time to take our eyes off Mark McGwire, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa. At least for a couple of minutes.
As entertaining as this season's epic home run frenzy has been, it isn't the most relevant thing going on in baseball.
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Derek Jeter and Yankees will be ready to take on all challengers in October.
(Allsport)
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How about the pennant races? Remember those? With less than two months to go until playoff time, let the scoreboard-watching begin.
The wild-card only adds to the drama, with 10 teams vying for two spots.
If you notice an outfielder looking behind him between pitches, he isn't looking for faces in the crowd. Like the rest of us, he wants to check out the scoreboard.
With that in mind, CBS SportsLine takes its first official stab at sizing up all the contenders coming down the stretch.
They'll make the playoffs if ... they stay awake.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... they take the rest of the season off.
Cleveland Indians (66-51, lead Minnesota by 12 1/2 games in the AL Central): Just as things were going almost too smoothly for the Indians in their quest for a fourth consecutive division title, disaster struck. First baseman Jim Thome (.303, 29 HRs, 82 RBI) broke his right hand Friday and will miss four to six weeks. Thome was on the verge of an MVP-caliber season and now the Indians can only pray he is 100 percent when the playoffs start. Fortunately, the Indians have built themselves enough of a margin for error that the absence of Thome won't keep them out of the postseason. However, one can only wonder whether John Hart's reluctance to sacrifice top prospects for Randy Johnson will come back to haunt the Tribe in October. Cleveland's top two pitchers (Bartolo Colon and Jaret Wright) are blossoming stars, but too young (both are 22) to carry a team to a championship.
They'll make the playoffs if ... the divisions don't get realigned before October.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Commissioner Bud Selig realizes how woeful the AL Central is, and moves the Yankees or Red Sox there.
Texas Rangers (63-53, lead Anaheim by two games in AL West): Don't be fooled by the Rangers' modest record. With two terrific trades before the July 31 deadline, the Rangers have vastly upgraded. They have an ace who can be counted on in Todd Stottlemyre, a vacuum cleaner of a shortstop in Royce Clayton and a solid RBI man in third baseman Todd Zeile. Even more important is what the Rangers already had. Juan Gonzalez is on his way to his second MVP in three years, and Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez is the best all-around catcher of this era. Throw in sweet-swinging Rusty Greer and closer John Wetteland, and the Rangers can scare anybody -- including the Yankees -- in a short series.
They'll make the playoffs if ... their suspect pitching holds up.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Juan Gonzalez gets injured.
Boston Red Sox (68-47, lead Anaheim by 7 1/2 games in wild-card race): There haven't been many teams as consistent as the Red Sox this season. Unfortunately, it has gone largely unnoticed thanks to the dominance of the Yankees, not to mention Mo Vaughn's ugly contract squabble. Fortunately for the BoSox, Vaughn's bat has been as loud as his mouth. Meanwhile, shortstop Nomar Garciaparra seems to get better every day and ace Pedro Martinez (6 years, $75 million) has been as good as advertised. The Red Sox have also had their share of unheralded players (Darren Lewis, Troy O'Leary) having career years.
They'll make the playoffs if ... their three superstars (Vaughn, Garciaparra, Martinez) stay healthy.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... converted closer Tom "Flash" Gordon finally starts showing his inexperience in his new role.
Anaheim Angels (61-55, 2 games behind Texas in AL West, 7 1/2 behind Boston in wild-card race): No contender has played less inspiring baseball over the last month or so than the Angels. Their lack of pitching depth is finally starting to surface. How long did you think Steve Sparks and Omar Olivares could keep pretending? Worse than anything that has happened on the field is the drastic failure of the front office. Within striking distance for both the division and the wild-card, the Angels did nothing while the two teams they are chasing (Boston and Texas) made significant moves. Most bizarre of all was the Angels' decision to dump Cecil Fielder last week. Why exactly do you get rid of an experienced slugger at this time of year?
They'll make the playoffs if ... the front office can awaken from its midsummer slumber and pull off a significant trade or two via the waiver wire.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Tim Salmon's ailing foot finally gives out on him.
Baltimore Orioles (60-56, 8 1/2 games behind Boston in wild-card race): Where exactly was this Oriole team the first three months of the season? Since the All-Star break, the Birds have played brilliantly. Eric Davis has been playing like the superstar who used to be known as Eric the Red in the late '80s in Cincinnati. His hot bat has carried the Orioles the last few weeks. And so has the return to form of ace Mike Mussina, who is finally back on his feet after being drilled in the face by a batted ball in June. However, the Orioles' resurgence likely came a bit late. The Red Sox have cooled a little, but haven't shown any signs of stumbling enough for Baltimore to catch them.
They'll make the playoffs if ... they play .800 ball the rest of the way.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... they cool off even the slightest bit.
They'll make the playoffs if ... they avoid complete disaster.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... they forfeit the rest of the season.
Houston Astros (71-46, lead Cubs by 7 1/2 in NL Central): Make no mistake about it. It's now or never for the Astros. With the heist of Randy Johnson from Seattle, management announced boldly that it's not content to merely be competitive down the stretch. It is greatness the Astros are after this time. It is World Series or bust. There is no denying the team can't afford Johnson after this season. So with a core of terrific players, including Jeff Bagwell, Moises Alou, Craig Biggio and Derek Bell, the Astros plan on riding Johnson's lightning bolt of a left arm deep into the playoffs. If not, all they gave up were three minor leaguers anyway.
They'll make the playoffs if ... Flame-throwing closer Billy Wagner makes a successful recovery from his scary head injury.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Randy Johnson misses David Segui so much he finds a few new wrestling partners in the Astros clubhouse.
San Diego Padres (76-41, 14 1/2 games ahead of San Francisco in NL West): Quite simply, the best Padres team ever. That said, look for San Diego to make a strong bid for its first pennant since 1984. So bent are the Padres on getting to the World Series, they acquired lefty closer Randy Myers last week simply so the Braves couldn't get him. Of course, Myers will team with Trevor Hoffman to give San Diego the best righty-lefty relief tandem in the game. All teams need an ace in October. The Padres have two of them in Kevin Brown and Andy Ashby. They can also outslug just about anyone with a lineup featuring Ken Caminiti, Tony Gwynn, Wally Joyner and MVP candidate Greg Vaughn. The only places the Padres really lack are catcher and shortstop. But they should have enough to compensate.
They'll make the playoffs if ... they don't get too cocky.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Willie Mays and Willie McCovey come out of retirement and lead the Giants to the most remarkable comeback ever.
Chicago Cubs (64-54, 7 1/2 games behind Houston in NL Central, 1/2 game ahead of Mets in wild-card race): All of Chicago is praying Kerry Wood's tired arm comes alive again. If not, the rest of the Cubs' mediocre rotation won't be enough to get them over the hump in what has become a wild-card dogfight with the Mets, Giants and Dodgers. Wood, if he can bounce back down the stretch, will be the NL Rookie of the Year. Whether he wins the trophy or not, he's revitalized a franchise that seemed content to be losers forever. Not that he takes all the credit. Sluggin' Sammy Sosa is having a career year, and has thrilled the Windy City and the nation with his pursuit of past immortals like Maris and Ruth and current ones named McGwire and Griffey. Whether Mr. Cub Mark Grace, Sosa and Wood can mask the other weaknesses (shaky bullpen, big hole at third base and center field) will determine whether there will finally be joy in Cub-ville.
They'll make the playoffs if ... Wood's dead arm starts throwing heat again.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Rod Beck pitches as badly for the Cubs the last two months of this season as he did for the Giants down the stretch in '97.
New York Mets (62-53, 1/2 game behind Cubs in wild-card race): Talk about a team with a lot of faces. First, there were the dull, punchless Mets with no Piazza and no Hundley. Then, there were the more entertaining Mets with Piazza and no Hundley. Now, we have the potentially potent Mets with Piazza and Hundley. Through it all, Bobby Valentine has kept this hard-working team in contention. The reason is pitching. Al Leiter and Rick Reed have been terrific at the top of the rotation, and Bobby Jones, Hideo Nomo, Masato Yoshii, and Armando Reynoso have been competent, at times even very good, in the middle and lower slots. Meanwhile, it is John Franco's recent penchant for incompetence, and Piazza's mystifying inability to perform in the clutch that have Mets fans worried. But once Piazza and Hundley get hot at the same time, and Franco settles down, the Mets should have what it takes to leap over the Cubs.
They'll make the playoffs if ... Piazza and Hundley go on a power binge at the same time.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Franco keeps pretending like it's Christmas every time he takes the mound.
San Francisco Giants (62-56, 2 games behind Cubs in wild-card hunt): Where would this Giants team be without Dusty Baker? Probably hopelessly out of the race. On paper, the Giants don't scare you. But between the lines, they give it everything they have every day. That's a tribute to a great manager. Unfortunately, mediocre starting pitching means the Giants will be first round and out again if they're lucky enough to make the playoffs. The acquisition of Ellis Burks was big because it means superstar Barry Bonds has much-needed protection in the lineup. But it probably wasn't enough for San Fran to make the Giant step it would need to be able to compete with San Diego, Atlanta or Houston in a short series.
They'll make the playoffs if ... Orel Hershiser becomes his 1988 self again.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... Closer Robb Nen falters over the final two months.
Los Angeles Dodgers (60-58, 4 games behind Cubs in wild-card hunt): Why is it that the Dodgers, year after year, don't play with any heart? The front office has done their part, maybe even going a little overboard, to give the team a spark. Future Hall of Famer Mike Piazza was traded for a trio of players (Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla and Charles Johnson) who helped the Marlins win a World Series last year. But only Sheffield has had a positive impact on the Dodgers. The pitching, though depleted by the season-ending loss of Ramon Martinez, hasn't come close to fulfilling expectations. And even the subtraction of deadbeat manager Bill Russell hasn't helped the Dodgers come to life. Tommy Lasorda has gone on a trading binge since taking over the GM role from Fred Claire. But the new additions, from ace closer Jeff Shaw, who won't remain a Dodger after the season, solid starter Carlos Perez to underrated shortstop Mark Grudzielanek aren't enough to get the Dodgers into the playoffs. That is, unless the Dodgers start playing with some fire.
They'll make the playoffs if ... they get a heart transplant.
They'll miss the playoffs if ... new additions don't pan out.
Ian Browne is a sportswriter on CBS SportsLine's staff.
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