This is definitely not what Knute Rockne's oft-quoted motivational speech was meant to evolve into.
Forget George Gipp, college football in 1998 means win one for the computer.
Hard drives more than long drives, PCs more than DBs and spreadsheets more
than point spreads will define this season. For all you hackers, it will be
IBMmmm good. For Joe Six-Pack? Well, you never should have fallen asleep
during high school algebra.
Don't blame the new Bowl Championship Series poll on the roster of brainchildren who came up with the complicated plan in the off-season to help facilitate an "undisputed" national champion. They were merely reacting to public opinion, conference commissioners and athletic directors who would rather give up their private parking spaces than give in to a full-fledged playoff.
Once that happens, the NCAA would control all or part of a Division I-A football tournament and lucrative money that went with it.
INSTEAD, BCS HONCHOS HAVE FOUND a way that is not quite foolproof but not quite a playoff to decide a national champion. Credit Southeastern Conference commissioner Roy Kramer, assistant Charles Bloom, nationally known ratings master Jeff Sagarin and a mathematics professor or two around the country for developing the complicated process of determining the top two teams in the country.
"I'm for a playoff," said Penn State coach Joe Paterno, "but having said that, what these people have done is really put great effort into it. This is probably the best chance we have of getting the two best teams playing."
The winners of the BCS sweepstakes will play the night of Jan. 4 in the Fiesta Bowl for all the marbles. Sort of. As you will see below, there are addendums, asterisks and foibles in this next-to-perfect formula. Enough to make a certain robot blurt out, "Danger, Eddie Robinson!"
But before grabbing the remote, grab a bag of computer chips and go with us on this convoluted disc drive around the BCS countryside.
THE HISTORY: Take a deep breath because here goes. ...
The Rose Bowl and its Pac-10 and Big Ten partners decided to join the old Super Alliance composed of the Sugar, Orange and Fiesta bowls in 1996. Without the Rose Bowl, there has always been the problem of deciding a national champion without two of the most powerful leagues in the country.
The Rose and its conferences reluctantly assimilated themselves into the Super Alliance even though it meant that 52 years of tradition would end. The Pac-10 and Big Ten champions are no longer guaranteed a berth in Pasadena.
Beginning after this season, No. 1 and No. 2 teams as designated by the BCS poll will meet in the Fiesta Bowl. But there are a total of eight open slots. The participants are champions of the Big 12, Pac-10, Big Ten, Southeastern, Atlantic Coast and Big East conferences plus two at-large teams.
That means that truly all 112 I-A teams have a chance to play in a BCS bowl and earn up to the $12 million guaranteed per team.
The Fiesta is first in line in a four-year rotation to play host to the championship game. The Rose Bowl will get No. 1 vs. No. 2 after the 2001 season. The BCS parties are committed until at least through that season.
THE FORMULA: As mentioned, for the first time the computer takes center stage in determining a national champion.
Actually, the old desktop is sharing the stage.
The BCS poll actually factors in seven elements to come up with a number assigned to each school. The lower the number, the higher the rank.
For example, had the poll applied to last year, Michigan and Nebraska would indeed have met in the championship game. Without the Rose Bowl in the mix, the two schools split the title without meeting on the field.
One key element will help the BCS. Its poll won't debut until later in the season, taking the inherent prejudice out of preseason polls that slot teams before they play a game. It is still to be determined but expect the first BCS poll to come out between weeks four and eight of the regular season.
IT IS CLEAR, THOUGH, THE most dynamic element in the seven factors is the computer.
Read on.
Factors 1 and 2: The polls. A team's ranking in both the Associated Press media poll and coaches poll is averaged. That's simple. If a team is ranked sixth and seventh, its number value would be 6.5.
Factors 3 through 5: The average rank of three reputable nationally known computer polls will be averaged.
The Seattle Times (West), New York Times (East) and Jeff Sagarin (Midwest) were chosen because of their credibility and geographic equity. It will be hard for anyone to claim prejudice with all three regions of the country represented.
"Everybody's talked about using them but they've never gone out on a limb and used them," Kramer said of the computer polls. "There are about 50 of them out there but there are only three or four that are published, that have credibility."
All three computer polls figure in strength of schedule, records and victory margin. That last element can be potentially dangerous when it comes to running up the score. It is known that at least Sagarin and the Seattle Times put a cap on victory margin. For example, if a team wins by more than 28 points it doesn't matter in the Sagarin rankings.
Don't worry about State U. getting screwed out of points because of an unusually low ranking in one of the computer polls. Something called a "maximum adjusted deviation" (see below) will be used to balance things.
Once again it's a simple average rank in the three polls. It is then added to the writers and coaches polls average.
Factor 6: Strength of schedule. This is where it gets sticky.
A TEAM'S RANK IS DETERMINED by factoring in the cumulative win-loss records of opponents (two-thirds) and win-loss records of opponents' opponents (one-third). The strength of schedule is then assigned a "quartile rank" with .04 for every spot in the rankings.
For example, the team with the toughest schedule starts with a quartile rank of .04. Florida's third-toughest schedule last year translated into a quartile rank of .12. Michigan's 21st-toughest schedule figured to a .84 quartile rank.
That number is added to the averages of the other polls.
It should be pointed out that playing a Division I-AA team could mean disaster. Their losses will count in the formula but not their victories. In other words, if a I-AA team finishes 10-1, only its loss counts in the formula. That's a key point for national title contenders like Kansas State (Indiana State) and Florida (The Citadel) that play I-AA teams.
Factor 7: losses.
Each loss counts for one point. Obviously, an undefeated season adds nothing to your total. That helped Michigan and Nebraska finish atop the BCS poll as applied to the 1997 season.
Add 'em all up and the lowest total is ranked first.
THE FLAWS: There are several, any one of which could throw college football back into its familiar court of debate.
The BCS is counting on two undefeated teams standing head and shoulder pads above the rest. But what if there are more than two?
"(That possibility) would be microscopic," said Grant Teaff, executive director of the American Football Coaches Association of America.
Depends on the size of the microscope. Three times since 1979 there have been more than two undefeated, untied teams. In 1989, there was one undefeated team and at-least two once-beaten teams.
There is still the possibility the championship could be split. The AP poll, unlike the coaches poll, will not necessarily award No. 1 to the winner of the Fiesta Bowl.
You guessed it: After this season-long calculus class, we could still have a split national championship.
Then there is the possibility of the No. 1 and No. 2 teams playing a bad, low-scoring game in the Fiesta Bowl while the No. 3 team wipes out its opponent in another BCS bowl. What do you do then?
The BCS doesn't have an answer, just a probability that its system will work. Only once in the last 10 seasons would the BCS poll have differed from the traditional polls in identifying the No. 1 and No. 2 for the big game.
"That's what's going to get people arguing," Kramer said. "Three undefeated teams or four 10-1 teams. What we've attempted to do is separate those teams."
Or burn out a floppy disk trying.
THE EPILOGUE: Some random thoughts on the BCS. ...
Any Division I-A independent or champion of the WAC or Conference USA can qualify for the BCS by being ranked sixth or higher at the end of the regular season. Teams to watch in that scenario are Notre Dame, Southern Mississippi, Tulane and Colorado State.
Otherwise, any team can qualify providing it wins at least eight games, is ranked among the top 12 in the final BCS regular-season poll or is ranked no lower in that poll than the lowest-ranked BCS conference champion.
You wanted to know what the maximum adjusted deviation is? You got it. For example, if a team is ranked second and fourth in two computer polls and 12th in a third, the 12 would be switched to a six before averages are figured. Example: 2+4+(12/2)=12/3=4.
The Fiesta is the first bowl to play host to two so-called title games. Nebraska beat Florida in the first such game on Jan. 2, 1996.
When not playing host to the title game the BCS has "soft anchors" to the following conferences: Fiesta (Big 12), Sugar (SEC), Orange (ACC or Big East), Rose (Big Ten and/or Pac-10).
After the Fiesta, the title game moves to the Sugar (following the 1999 season), Orange (2000) and Rose (2001).
Finally, clip and save this story. You'll need it.
Dennis Dodd is a senior writer in CBS SportsLine's Kansas City bureau.
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