LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Pat Day has the Kentucky Derby pretty well pegged.
The Hall of Fame jockey -- who rode longshot Lil E. Tee to victory here in 1992 -- sees the over-analyzed, annual "Run For The Roses" as both intricately designed and beautifully eclectic, requiring both a well-trained and well-ridden mount with all the right blood lines and Dosage Index numbers and then just happens to be peaking on the first Saturday in May.
Oh, one more thing, according to Day, "You have to be the one that God has preordained to win the race."
Now just which horse God plans to send to the winner's circle Saturday for the 122nd running of the Kentucky Derby is anybody's guess. After all, He does work in mysterious ways.
But one thing is certain. This year's favorite among the mortal oddsmakers -- Unbridled's Song -- is both favored (8-5) and flawed. On one hand, he is the consensus "best horse in the field"; on the other hand, he is the only one that has to adjust -- literally on the run -- to a pair of special aluminum bar shoes designed to protect and provide extra support to a tender left front heel, the remnants of a heel crack suffered in the April 13 Wood Memorial.
ALTHOUGH THAT WAS HIS LAST RACE (and his last win), Unbridled's Song remains the Derby favorite because this year's field is full of "can't win" horses.
But somebody has to win -- and that somebody will be Editor's Note.
What makes this D. Wayne Lukas entry -- Editor's Note and Grindstone -- such an attractive bet is that for the price of one, you get Gary Stevens, last year's Derby winner aboard Thunder Gulch, and Jerry Bailey, '93 Derby winner aboard Sea Hero, respectively.
So, mark it down and take it to the bank. Stevens will become the first jockey to win back-to-back Derbys since Eddie Delahoussaye (Gato Del Sol '82 and Sunny's Halo '83) 13 years ago. Watch Editor's Note come far off the pace as did Unbridled in '90, Strike The Gold in '91 and Sea Hero in ''93, and watch Stevens patiently use the far turn to run down the field, a la Pat Valenzuela aboard Sunday Silence in '89 and Day aboard Lil E. Tee in '92.
Editor's Note hasn't won a race since September (although finishing in the money five times in his six starts) but that's even more reason to bet him to win. He's due. Editor's Note is a high-energy colt who has been the most impressive among Lukas' five entries in workouts here.
This will be sweet revenge for the family tree since Editor's Note is the son of Forty Niner, '88 Derby runnerup by a neck to Winning Colors ... trained, ironically, by Lukas.
Prince of Thieves, another Lukas entry in Saturday's race, is my choice to place, although certain to be betted down from 15-1 come post time.
In Contention, a 20-1 longshot owned and trained by women (Noreen Carpenito and Cynthia Reese, respectively) is my show bet -- and figures to pay quite handsomely.
CONSIDER THAT FOUR OF THE last six third-place finishers in the Derby have paid $25.60 (Mane Minister '91), $12.60 (Dance Floor '92), $12.00 (Pleasant Tap '90) and $8.00 (Blumin Affair '94), while a fifth (Wild Gale '93) was part of the field that paid $4.20.
Of course, as everyone knows, the favorite hasn't won here since Spectacular Bid in 1979, so wave good-bye to Unbridled's Song, although his forced adjustment to the foot injury plus his rotten-luck post position draw on the extreme far outside will have more to do with his demise than streaks or superstition.
A gelding hasn't won here since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929, so wave good-bye to Alyrob -- son of 1987 Derby winner Alysheba -- and Cavonnier. Incidentally, sons of Derby winners have won a Derby of their own only 11 times. Alyrob won't become No. 12.
The Dosage Index tells us to lay off Skip Away, currently the second choice at 7-2, and Nick Zito's Louis Quatorze, with Strike The Gold jockey Chris Antley aboard, because the numbers say no. Zito is one of the two or three best -- and most loved -- trainers in the sport today.
Speaking of admiration, 83-year-old Charlie Whittingham, with those Paul Newman eyes, wants us to believe that Corker has a shot at winning Saturday. It would be Charlie's third Kentucky Derby (Ferdinand '86 and Sunday Silence '89) in 11 years -- but it won't happen.
Corker, a beautiful bay colt whose favorite stall treats are starlight peppermints, is part of the betting field for a reason. As one handicapper put it, "We have to divorce ourselves from the Charlie Whittingham mystique this week because Corker just doesn't have the quality."
Meanwhile, there isn't an Arazi or a Holly Bull to "blow it" this year. The field of 19 (City By Night was a Friday morning scratch because of a left front foot abscess) has its share of pretenders, but also has five to eight entries capable of winning.
YOU CAN ADD GEORGE STEINBRENNER'S Diligence, another Zito-trained colt, to the list that includes Unbridled's Song, Skip Away, Editor's Note, Prince of Thieves and maybe even Cavonnier, Alyrob and Louis Quatorze.
Actually, it may be easier this year to pick the winning trainer than to pick the winning horse.
I'm picking D. Wayne "He Has All The Horses" Lukas, who will be trying to win an unprecedented sixth Triple Crown race in a row.
Editor's Note: He's got it.
Ray Buck is the national columnist for the SportsLine USA staff.
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