LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Nobody is stupid enough to pick the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Right? It hasn't happened since 1979.
Well, I'm going with the favorite.
But please let the record show that I didn't pick the favorite to win Saturday's "Run for the Roses." The favorite picked me.
My picks all along:
Suddenly now, Silver Charm has replaced Pulpit as the new betting favorite here at Churchill Downs, following a heavy day of Kentucky Derby wagering during Friday's Kentucky Oaks.
PRIOR TO THE CLOSE OF betting windows Friday, Silver Charm had been no better than the third choice behind Pulpit and Captain Bodgit.
Now it's Silver Charm, Crypto Star, Captain Bodgit ... and finally Pulpit. Now I'm bucking the odds. Now I'm going with the (ugh!) favorite.
But I'm a man of my convictions. Plus, if Silver Charm, the gray colt from the Left Coast, doesn't win, a lot of karma will have gone to waste this week.
For trainer Bob Baffert, this is a chance to erase those haunting memories of Cavonnier's photo-finish loss by a nose to Grindstone in last year's Derby. Silver Charm suddenly becomes the poetic-justice pick.
For jockey Gary Stevens, this is a chance to become the first three-time Derby winner among active jockeys ... the same week that he goes into thoroughbred racing's Hall of Fame. Silver Charm suddenly becomes the perfect-timing pick.
Finally, for Silver Charm, this is a chance to become only the fifth gray colt (and first since Gato Del Sol in '82) to win a Derby. The skies on Saturday will be gray. So why can't the winner?
IT'S A WIDE-OPEN, 13-horse race, which actually favors a favorite since it makes it less a race of chance and more a race of ability.
And while Pulpit is clearly the best-bred entry in the race, he is trying to become the first horse to win a Kentucky Derby after not having raced as a 2-year-old since Apollo in '82 ... 1882, that is.
Then there's the number crunchers. Only one Derby winner since 1929 -- Strike The Gold in '91 -- has had a Dosage Index (which determines stamina) above 4.00.
In a ratings system in which lower is better, Silver Charm (1.22) is lowest.
Then there's blood lines. Silver Charm has plenty of breeding to make the transition from sprint races to the grueling 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.
SILVER CHARM IS THE SON of Silver Buck, a colt long on stamina and longevity, and the grandson of Buckpasser, the 1966 Horse of the Year who went on to win 15 straight races at distances up to two miles. And there is plenty of stamina in the bloodlines on Silver Charm's other side of the family tree.
But enough of the technical reasons to go with Silver Charm. I first liked him because of his trainer, Baffert, who looks like Dustin Hoffman with Phil Donahue's hair.
The typical trainer here takes this week too seriously. But not Bob Baffert.
After Silver Charm drew the No. 5 post position Wednesday, Baffert started getting a lot of phone calls from friends in California.
"The guest list keeps growing -- 20, maybe 22, I've kind of lost count," he said. "I told 'em all the same thing: 'Come on out!' I have the kind of buddies who don't want to pay the airfare unless they know they have a good shot (to see a winner)."
WHEN ASKED BY THE MEDIA how he sees the race run, Baffert said, "Oh, we'll probably win by five or six (lengths)."
About avenging last year's heartache loss, he said, "No photo finishes again. If I run second, I hope I get beat by three lengths this time."
There is a chance of rain here Saturday, although the forecast is for a clearing by post time.
"Silver Charm has never run on an off-track," Baffert said. "But this track is different. The more water it gets, the better it gets. It tightens up like a beach ... the closer to the water, the tighter (the surface)."
He quickly catches himself.
"Wait a minute," he said. "If my horse doesn't run well, that'll be my out. Every trainer needs to have an out, you know."
A trainer with a sense of humor. A horse with splendid blood lines ... son of Silver Buck ... grandson of Buckpasser.
Then they almost scared me off by making Silver Charm the favorite.
Nice try. Didn't work.
Ray Buck is CBS SportsLine's national columnist.
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