Facts, figures and analysis from the field of 64

By Mike Douchant
Special to CBS SportsLine
March 11, 1997

For those observers who just can't get enough morsels on the 1997 NCAA Tournament, here is an assortment of opinions and observations to digest as the 64-team "field of dreams" unfolds:

Playing the percentages

The law of averages suggests that no more than two of the four regional No. 1 seeds will reach the Final Four. The only year since seeding started in 1979 that the Final Four had more than two No. 1 seeds was during "The Battle of New Orleans" in 1993 when finalists Michigan and North Carolina were fortunate to both overcome double-digit deficits in two regional games before advancing to the national semifinals.

So what are the major historical obstacles facing this year's No. 1 seeds?

Consider:

KANSAS -- The Jayhawks (32-1) are under intense pressure, inasmuch as they will set an NCAA record for most victories in a single season with 38 by winning the national title. In 1992, Duke defied a trend by becoming the first top-ranked team in 10 years entering the tournament to win the national title. Besides Duke, North Carolina in '82 and UCLA in '95 are the only other top-ranked teams since 1979 to become national champions.

In addition, 30 victories entering the NCAA Tournament seems to be too much, too soon. The first seven squads compiling 30 or more triumphs entering the playoffs since the field was expanded to 64 entrants all failed to capture the NCAA crown: Georgetown '85, Duke '86, Kansas '86, UNLV '87, Arizona '88, Oklahoma '88 and UNLV '91.

Perhaps a change of scenery to the Big 12 Conference will change things, but none of the 20 Big Eight Conference Tournament champions went on to capture the NCAA crown.

KENTUCKY -- It's extremely difficult to successfully defend a national championship. Thirteen different schools won the last 14 titles. Duke was lucky to repeat in 1992, when the Blue Devils reached the Final Four on Christian Laettner's last-second basket in overtime in the East Regional final against Kentucky. The absence of injured Derek Anderson further complicates the Wildcats' ability to earn back-to-back crowns.

MINNESOTA -- The rigors of earning a Big Ten title take a toll. No Big Ten team has won an undisputed conference title and reached the Final Four since Indiana achieved the feat in 1981. The Hoosiers captured the 1987 national crown after tying Purdue for the league championship. Moreover, none of the first seven schools to go from not participating in the NCAA playoffs one year to earning a No. 1 regional seed the next season won the national championship and only two of the seven reached the Final Four.

NORTH CAROLINA -- Only one of the previous 13 ACC Tournament champions went on to capture the NCAA title. This is the eighth time the Tar Heels received a No. 1 seed. Two of their top seeds captured national titles, but three of them failed to reach a regional final. Carolina's first seven No. 1 seeds averaged four defeats entering the NCAA playoffs. This year's edition almost lost its first four ACC assignments.

All-America analysis

Don't be enamored with first-team All-Americas when projecting Final Four teams. A majority of NCAA consensus first-team All-Americas failed to reach each of the last 18 Final Fours. In fact, none of the seven consensus first-team All-Americas in 1983 reached the national semifinals. Moreover, none of the five first-team All-Americas in 1978 advanced to a regional final, let alone the Final Four. The last time a majority of NCAA first-team All-Americas participated in the Final Four was 1976, when the five-man squad included Indiana's Kent Benson and Scott May and UCLA's Richard Washington.

East is least

Villanova is seeking redemption for its enigmatic season, but no Eastern school has won the East Regional and the national title in the same season since the tournament went to four regionals.

The five national champions from the East Regional since 1956 were all ACC members (North Carolina '57, N.C. State '74, North Carolina '82, Duke '92 and North Carolina '93). The principal problem for the region is the Big East Conference, which failed to have a team win the national title the last 11 years.

What to watch

Duke's chances of reaching the Final Four eroded when the Blue Devils were upset by N.C. State in the ACC Tournament. After all, Virginia '84 is the only team to advance to the national semifinals after losing its opening game in a league tournament...A Rip Van Winkle finally woke up during eight of the previous nine tournaments and advanced to the national final after not being ranked among the top ten in either the AP or UPI final polls. Who will it be this year? Don't count out consensus preseason No. 1 pick Cincinnati just yet despite the absence of a bona fide playmaker for the Bearcats...Utah needs to overcome the WAC's stigma of never winning a Final Four game. The Utes finished in fourth place in 1966...Illinois, Princeton, Temple and Texas are four of the 10 snake-bitten schools among the 25 winningest institutions in major-college history to never reach the title game of an NCAA Tournament, let alone win an NCAA crown.

Points of view

  • South Carolina, not Kansas, would have been the nation's No. 1 team entering this year's NCAA Tournament if Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal had remained in their home state and exercised all of their college eligibility with the Gamecocks. They might have been in the process of attempting to become the first undefeated team since Indiana '76. ...

  • Watch out for Illinois, which boasts a standout crop of guards. Backcourts traditionally exert more influence in postseason competition. First-year Illini coach Lon Kruger, a standout guard himself in his college days at Kansas State, became the first coach to guide three different schools to the Top 20 of a final wire-service poll. He previously had Top 20 teams at Kansas State (1988) and Florida (1994). ...

  • Michigan's underachieving unit was better off not earning a spot in the NCAA playoffs and embarrassing itself again. The Wolverines' immaturity was exemplified in last year's tourney when they were assessed a technical foul for calling yet another timeout in the closing seconds of a playoff contest while being out of timeouts. It's abundantly clear now that the squad's stars weren't bonding via a late-night vow to avoid Chris Webber's earlier blunder when several of them had their infamous automobile accident at 5 a.m. during the 1995-96 campaign. ...

  • Southwest Missouri State has a legitimate gripe. Why did the Big Ten Conference, which came within a total of eight points of going winless in 11 NCAA playoff games the previous two years, get six bids this season while the Bears (24-8 record) were snubbed? ...

  • Connecticut (without Ray Allen), Alabama (Antonio McDyess) and Memphis (Lorenzen Wright) probably would have participated in the NCAA playoffs instead of the NIT if star players didn't defect early for the NBA.

  • Texas Tech lost five times as many games this season as the Red Raiders did last year (30-2 mark), but they could have advanced as far as they did in 1996 (regional semifinals) if not for withdrawing from consideration because of scholastic shortcoming. Few squads have two potential pros and an inside-outside combination as potent as center Tony Battie and guard Cory Carr. ...

  • At-large entrants Massachusetts and Texas deserved to be rewarded for playing difficult non-conference schedules, but why didn't the same criteria apply for Fresno State? Everyone is totally confident that it doesn't have anything to do with the NCAA's longstanding feud with coach Jerry Tarkanian. ...

  • Syracuse (opposed Winthrop, Buffalo, Colgate and Maryland-Eastern Shore) and Tulane (met Texas-Arlington, Portland State, Prairie View A&M, Centenary, Lafayette and Nicholls State) don't have anything to complain about in having to settle for the NIT because of their cupcake-filled non-conference schedules. ...

  • Here is a justifiable parting shot at Arizona, which should have been forced to oppose St. Joseph's in the East Regional after the Wildcats refused to play at St. Joe's last season because of a snowstorm, although Philadelphia's airport did not close.

    Upset specials?

    A No. 12 seed advanced to the round of 16 in six of the last seven years--Ball State '90, Eastern Michigan '91, New Mexico State '92, George Washington '93, Tulsa '94 and Arkansas '96. Look for College of Charleston or Princeton to raise havoc as No. 12 seeds this year.

    Many coaches have an obsession with size, but don't be surprised if short subjects serve as catalysts for the seemingly inevitable string of upsets that will supply memories etched indelibly in our minds. Among the mighty mites who might make a huge impact on the playoffs is Stanford's Brevin Knight (generously listed at 5-10). Other "small wonders" who could prove to be the difference in the gut-wrenching waning moments of close contests are Clemson's Terrell McIntyre (5-8), Marquette's Aaron Hutchins (5-9), Scoonie Penn (5-10), Rhode Island's Tyson Wheeler (5-10) and St. Joseph's Rashid Bey (6-0).

    Mystery men

    Young turks who probably will never receive the accolades they deserve until they at least coach a school to a regional final include Rick Barnes, Dave Bliss, Tim Floyd, Pete Gillen, Steve Lappas, Mike Montgomery, Kelvin Sampson and Gary Williams.

    How much credence should observers put in first-rate coaches with dime-store playoff results? High-profile coaches such as New Mexico's Bliss (5-8 mark), Purdue's Gene Keady (10-13) and Providence's Gillen (5-7) are occasionally grilled because of their dismal tournament resumes. They're due, however, to eventually turn things around and shouldn't be written off altogether. Remember: Legendary John Wooden lost his first five playoff games as coach at UCLA by an average of more than 11 points and compiled an anemic 3-9 record from 1950 through 1963 before the Bruins won an unprecedented 10 national titles in 12 years from 1964 through 1975.

    Playing and coaching excellence

    Being a great player has never had anything to do with being a good coach, but occasionally things work out in both endeavors. Although Southwest Missouri State coach Steve Alford, an NCAA first-team All-America in 1986 and 1987, was snubbed by the tournament committee, Southern Cal's Henry Bibby, who excelled as a guard for crosstown rival UCLA, became the 10th individual in history to coach a team to the NCAA Division I Tournament after earning a spot on an NCAA first- or second-team All-America squad. Here is an alphabetical list of the 10 individuals to achieve the feat:

    Coach, School
    (Years)         		Alma Mater
    (All-America Years)
    Henry Bibby
    Southern Cal (1997)    		 UCLA
    (1972/1st team selection)
    Bob Calihan
    Detroit (1962)    		Detroit
    (1939/2nd)
    Bob Cousy
    Boston College (1967 and 1968)     		Holy Cross
    (1950/1st)
    Larry Finch
    Memphis (1988-89-92-93-95)     		Memphis State
    (1973/2nd)
    Clem Haskins
    Western Kentucky (1981 and1986) and Minnesota (1989-90-94-95-97)     		Western Kentucky
    (1967/1st)
    Walt Hazzard
    UCLA (1987)    		UCLA
    (1964/1st)
    Branch McCracken
    Indiana (1940-53-54-58)     		Indiana
    (1930)
    Jeff Mullins
    UNC Charlotte (1988 and 1992)     		Duke
    (1964/2nd)
    John Shumate
    SMU (1993)    		Notre Dame
    (1974/1st)
    John Wooden
    UCLA (1950-52-56-62-63-
    64-65-67-68-69-
    70-71-72-73-74-75)     		Purdue
    (1930-31-32)

    NOTE: The NCAA did not distinguish between first- and second-team All-Americas until 1939.

    Geography lesson

    South Carolina knows that the "Road to the Final Four" is a highway lined with daydreamers and potholes.

    Three states -- Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota -- do not have any NCAA Division I institutions. Of the 47 states and the District of Columbia with major university members, South Carolina is among the unlucky 13 that have never had a school reach the national semifinals of the Division I Tournament. There were 14 states in this category until Mississippi State shed the ignominy for its fair state last year.

    Five of the 13 wistful states shut out of the Final Four currently have more than three colleges classified as Division I--South Carolina (10 Division I schools), Maryland (nine), Alabama (eight), Connecticut (five) and Missouri (five).

    South Carolina's "Trail of Tears" includes perhaps the finest team in the state's history and what some observers believe was the nation's best squad in 1970. The South Carolina Gamecocks went unbeaten in ACC competition during the regular season and finished a league-record five games ahead of their closest rival.

    The ACC selected its representative to the NCAA playoffs at the time through its own postseason tourney and seven of the eight previous winners reached the Final Four. But the Gamecocks, featuring a starting lineup with current Georgia Tech coach Bobby Cremins as its only senior, lost against North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament final (42-39 in double overtime). Cremins collected two points, no assists and no rebounds in 49 minutes.

    Taking a more stately approach, Pennsylvania has had the most different universities reach the Final Four with eight. Joining Philadelphia's Big Five (La Salle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple and Villanova) in advancing to the national semifinals from the "Quaker State" are Duquesne, Penn State and Pitt. Only three other states--California (six), New York (five) and Texas (five)--have had more than four different schools advance to the Final Four.

    The only occasions where two teams from the same state met each other in the championship game were in 1961 and 1962 when Cincinnati defeated top-ranked Ohio State by a total of 17 points. The two victories gave Cincinnati three triumphs in four years against teams ranked No. 1 entering the tournament. In 1959, the Bearcats beat Bob Boozer-led Kansas State in the Midwest Regional final (85-75).

    FROM RAGS TO RICHES?

    Big Ten Conference champion Minnesota became the eighth school to make a transformation since the tournament began seeding teams in 1979 from not participating in the NCAA playoffs one year to earning a No. 1 regional seed the next season. One might become convinced the "famine to feast" turnarounds were too unsettling because none of the first seven schools in this category won the national championship. But it should be pointed out all of them weren't totally out of the limelight the previous year, when they each participated in the NIT.

    The only school to be as many as six games below .500 in conference competition one year and earn a No. 1 regional seed the next season was Michigan State. The Spartans, a No. 1 seed in 1990, compiled a 6-12 Big Ten record in 1989. Here is a chronological look at the about-faces (NCAA playoff record that year is in parentheses):

    School (Regional) Previous Yr.NCAA Tournament Result
    Indiana State '79 (Midwest)23-9 Lost in national final (4-1 mark).
    Kentucky '80 (Mideast)19-12 Lost in regional semifinals (1-1).
    Virginia '81 (East)24-10 Lost in national semifinals (3-1).
    DePaul '84 (Midwest)21-12 Lost in regional semifinals (1-1).
    Michigan '85 (Southeast)24-9 Lost in second round (1-1).
    Connecticut '90 (East)18-13 Lost in regional final (3-1).
    Michigan St. '90 (Southeast)18-15 Lost in regional semifinals (2-1).
    Minnesota '97 (Midwest)19-13 To be determined.

    NOTE: Virginia (1980 champion), DePaul (1983 runner-up), Michigan (1984 champion) and Michigan State (1989 fourth place) reached the NIT "final four" the year before earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA playoffs.

    Mike Douchant's historical columns will be appearing on CBS SportsLine periodically throughout the NCAA Tournament. Check out our March Mania History section for more of Douchant's touch.