To consider elements of HBO's fall lineup, in light of American capitalism's coming overhaul, is to wonder if we'll ever again have a broadcast year like 2008. Will we not look back at fights like Pavlik-Hopkins and Pacquiao-De La Hoya and say of them, as we now say of so much, "Did we really think this was sustainable?"
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| Tarver could cause problems for Dawson with his off-speed punch. (Getty Images) |
It's not all bad news, though. It never is. Not in a sport as resilient as boxing.
Showtime, for years the guerilla network, might be on the verge of parity. Next year HBO's boxing budget will still dwarf Showtime's. But what about in 2010 and beyond? There's no telling. So, it's fair to ask which network is better positioned to entertain on a shoestring budget. We all know the answer to that.
More evidence comes Saturday. Showtime will broadcast a highly anticipated fight in the light heavyweight division and a heavyweight title fight that promises to be unusual. The highly anticipated fight will pit undefeated, former WBC champ Chad Dawson against former universally recognized light heavyweight and current IBF champion Antonio Tarver.
The unusual fight will see WBC heavyweight champ Samuel Peter defend his title against former WBO/WBC heavyweight champ Vitali Klitschko.
Tarver-Dawson happens in Las Vegas, Peter-Klitschko in Berlin.
Whether your preference is for anticipated or unusual, it behooves you to cheer for only one fight to be consequential. That would be Dawson-Tarver. If Peter-Klitschko becomes consequential we've got problems. More about that later.
Chad Dawson has an air of invincibility about him. Talking to folks in the gym gives you the feeling Dawson is expected to beat Tarver. Not necessarily stop him, but outwork him and make his night miserable. Dawson is younger, fresher and stronger.
But am I the only one who's slightly reminded of Jeff Lacy before Joe Calzaghe? Lacy was considered a more imposing force than Dawson. But Calzaghe was considered a fresher force than anyone considers Tarver.
Nobody's expecting Dawson to blow out Tarver the way we all erroneously thought Lacy would handle Calzaghe. But Tarver's chances bear consideration.
It's fair to say Dawson is the impetus for Bernard Hopkins' establishment of his own division. After decisioning Tarver 28 months ago, Hopkins created the 170-pound division -- not quite light heavyweight but more than super middleweight -- to feast on small men, rather than young, naturally larger ones. Nobody blamed him for it at the time. But then, who thought the end of 2008 would see him making a third such fight?
So if Hopkins beat Tarver and created a division to avoid Dawson, what gives Tarver a chance Saturday? The off-speed punch, that's what.
