I've never warmed up to the idea of the "Dream Match" nickname for Saturday night's event featuring Manny Pacquiao and Oscar De La Hoya. To me, it's a dream match only in a financial sense. Competitively, it has only the names of the participants to sell to those who don't know any better.
|
|
| It's a major award! (Getty Images) |
Oscar is 3-3 over the past five-plus years. The last time that he scored two victories in a calendar year was 2001. And the harsh truth is that he has never won any of his big fights anyway, with losses to Felix Trinidad, Bernard Hopkins, Floyd Mayweather and two to Shane Mosley. So I feel comfortable in saying that Manny is the better fighter at this point in his career.
However, this is reality-check time. Because Manny is the better fighter does not make him the winner. Not even competitive.
Pacquiao began his career at 106 and just this June he moved up to win a 135-pound belt with a vicious stoppage of David Diaz. Remarkably, Pacquiao has thus far carried his power all the way, proving speed kills. But can he take it up yet two more divisions, to 147?
Oscar has won titles at every stop from 135 to 160 and he is by far the naturally bigger man. He has a 4-inch height advantage at 5-10½ and a 5-inch reach advantage, 72 to 67. This is why Oscar is the favorite, 2-1 at this point, relatively low odds for a man with so many physical advantages. After all, Manny has to come up 12 pounds to face a De La Hoya, whose biggest challenge is to drop three pounds from his last fight to reach 147.
So, in case anyone has any doubts of where I'm going with this, I'm expecting Oscar to definitively stop Manny before the end of Round 5. If Oscar loses this one or fails to starch Pacquiao early, he should go into hiding. Take the 2-1 -- it's a lock.
Remember that one of the first laws of the boxing gods is "a good big man will always beat a good little man."
I'll betcha HBO is familiar with the concept. The HBO website had a picture of the two men, cleverly placing Oscar in the background. Now you have to know that HBO has a strategy here, right? Normally they would have the star front and center. ("No one puts Baby in the corner.")
The answer is that it makes Manny appear to be the same height and it highlights his more impressive upper-body physique. If you didn't know better, you'd think Oscar was the underdog. Actually, I was told that Manny stood on a chair for the shot to look as big as De La Hoya.
Despite my misgivings on a professional basis, I've come to accept the fight for what it is -- an event, a happening. Oscar is a human cash register and he's going to make money for everyone, so you can't blame Manny for cashing in with this opportunity, just one week from his 30th birthday. Manny is an international star and he deserves the purse.
Another concern was Pacquiao's future. It won't be easy to get back to 135 and he probably won't. But if he so chooses he can compete at 140 and be considerably wealthier.
Overall it's about entertainment, and I'm all for that. Hopefully, then, we'll keep some of the crossover fans who are drawn to the fight mainly because they recognize the names. If it's exciting, it can happen. De La Hoya-Mayweather Jr. was a failure in this regard. Hopefully the participants will rise to the occasion this time.
