Jeff Capel's behind-the-scenes audition for the Duke head coaching job has been going on for years.
But now it's about to play out in public over the next month.
Mike Krzyzewski, who turns 70 in February, is going to leave his post eventually. Will it be soon? Not in the next two two years, I don't think. Despite Coach K now needing to undergo his third surgery in less than nine months' time, the indication from Durham is that he's walking up the driveway but is still not quite on the doorstep of retirement. But when the time comes to pick a Krzyzewski successor, Capel is the name that's been lingering at the top of the list of theoretical candidates.
This sub-in opportunity will give Capel, potentially, a nice bolster to his bullet points of qualifications. No other future candidate to be K's Duke legatee will have actual experience coaching Blue Devils. That is a distinct advantage -- so long as Duke doesn't flounder in the coming weeks.
Capel, whose first head-coaching gig came at VCU in 2002, was fired from his second job, Oklahoma, in 2011. Career record: 161-92. Krzyzewski brought him back home to North Carolina (Capel grew up in Fayetteville), where he was a tremendous player in the mid-'90s. Since joining Krzyzweski's staff, Capel's been in the mix for a few head-coaching jobs, but curiously hasn't landed one. Capel's recruiting ability (he's been the lead guy on almost every five-star player Duke has landed in the past half-decade) has been the major, overlooked element to Duke's year-round successes.
Since 2011-12, Duke has a 155-39 record, a national championship and nine first-round draft picks. In many ways, you can argue Duke has never been better as a program than in the past five-plus years. A lot of that is on Jeff Capel.
This is a big opportunity with a lot of pressure. The elements in play at Duke right now are not easy to manage; even Krzyzewski's made a couple of missteps this season. Remember, it's the most hated program in the sport with the most hated player in the sport. The freshmen have not been as good as advertised, in part, because of their injury-induced delayed start to the season.
Duke is also coming off an embarrassing loss to Virginia Tech, so there is a sense of urgency within league play. With that in mind, let's also look at the reality of the situation. The ACC is the toughest and deepest league in America, and so the schedule is the biggest challenge Capel will be dealt. The day-to-day stuff should be OK while Krzyzewski's out. Think about how elite businesses can survive, even thrive, in the short-term in the event they lose a pivotal CEO. Duke is no different. The culture is there. Cameron Indoor Stadium isn't going to crumble without K.
But in terms of gameplay, in terms of the schedule? Win/loss results are the tangible measures Capel will be viewed most critically on. Krzyzewski's going to go under the knife on Friday, so he'll be on the sideline (and in pain) for Wednesday's home game vs. Georgia Tech. After that, Capel's in charge in the short-term. Duke has a difficult road game against 14-1 Florida State on Jan. 10, then will travel on Jan. 14 to play 12-2 Louisville, which has the best defense in America. A road tilt against Notre Dame also awaits on Jan. 30; Mike Brey's Fighting Irish have defeated Duke five of the six times (!) the teams have met since ND joined the ACC in 2013.
And the game will be in South Bend.
Plus, throw in a home tilt against NC State (Jan. 23), who could have one of the three best point guards in America in Dennis Smith Jr.
The coincidental aspect here is that Capel was a player at Duke the last time Krzyzewski required back surgery and was forced to step away. That was the 1994-95 season -- also the last time Duke did not make the NCAA Tournament. There's not much Capel can look back on from when he was a sophomore and use today, but it is interesting how two very different Duke eras have become connected.
As of late last week, Duke was still the favorite to win the national title, according to oddsmakers in Las Vegas. Now the team is trying to jell to optimal ends. It's still not there. We're still pretty far from seeing Duke at its best, or at least what so many have put upon this team and expectations therein. Capel can't be a substitute teacher. He has to actively get Duke to play better, catalyze the chemistry concerns and set up this team for a No. 1 seed or, short of that, make this team better come early February and than it is right now. That includes getting Harry Giles more minutes, if warranted, and determining what's going on with Grayson Allen.
Because by the time Krzyzewski comes back (let's even be optimistic and say it's the very end of January/the very beginning of February), Duke will be 70 percent through its regular-season slate. There will still be room for plenty of improvement, but the team will need to know its identity. Roles will have to be defined. Everyone should be on the same page and working on the small stuff to ensure big success come March.
Be it Duke or be it another coaching job in general, Capel is ready. He's earned his next shot. Now he'll get to show it, and despite the fact that it's a team loaded with NBA talent, it won't be easy.
No team has been more interesting this season than Duke, and now college basketball's January just got even more compelling.
