There are a number of reasons why Kentucky lost three of four games and dropped to 15th in the AP poll before Tuesday's 92-85 win over a terrible LSU team. But not one of those reasons has anything to do with John Calipari hosting a podcast or Malik Monk cracking a smile while opposing fans greet him with birthday wishes.
That kind of talk is silly talk.
Florida didn't beat Kentucky 88-66 last Saturday as a result of Calipari chatting with Drake for 55 minutes or because Monk giggles too much. Florida beat Kentucky by 22 points last Saturday because Florida is good and was at home, and because these young Wildcats are still trying to figure things out as the SEC schedule unfolds.
Which is always the case when UK is this reliant on freshmen.
I think we forget that sometimes.
So consider this your reminder that none of this -- neither the loss at Tennessee nor the home losses to UCLA and Kansas -- should be surprising, and here's why: Kentucky teams built this way always struggle in conference play.
ALWAYS.
In the seven seasons Calipari has completed at Kentucky since leaving Memphis for the SEC in March 2009, he's had three teams that relied on freshmen for more than 60.0 percent of their scoring. Those were the 2011, 2013 and 2014 teams. And all three of those teams took six SEC losses.
All. Three.
Tell me if you notice a trend. Here's a look at the seven previous Calipari-coached Kentucky teams and the percentage at which they relied on freshmen to score:
- 2014: 84.8 ... 6 SEC losses
- 2011: 61.4 ... 6 SEC losses
- 2013: 60.7 ... 6 SEC losses
- 2010: 60.0 ... 2 SEC losses
- 2012: 54.6 ... 0 SEC losses
- 2016: 50.3 ... 5 SEC losses
- 2015: 46.5 ... 0 SEC losses
So it's pretty clear, right?
The three Calipari-coached Kentucky teams that have relied most heavily on freshmen to score have all struggled, relatively speaking, in the SEC. Which is why nobody should be bewildered by this current UK team -- that's relying on freshmen to score 67.7 percent of their 90.2 points -- remaining a work in progress.
But here's the good news.
Of the three previous Calipari-coached UK teams that have relied on freshmen for more than 60.0 percent of their scoring, two of them -- the 2011 team and the 2014 team -- still advanced to the Final Four despite losing those six SEC games. The only one that didn't? That's the 2013 team that lost Nerlens Noel to a torn ACL two days before Valentine's Day. So we'll never know whether that team, if healthy, could have similarly flipped a switch because their opportunity was lost when their best player went down. But it's worth noting that while that 2013 team is best remembered as Calipari's only NIT team at UK -- special shoutout to Robert Morris! -- the Wildcats were on a five-game winning streak and top-20 at KenPom before Noel's injury.
Bottom line, don't write Kentucky's obituary yet.
Folks did it in 2011 and looked silly.
Then they did it again in 2014 and looked even sillier.
To be clear, I'm not guaranteeing Calipari will coach in his seventh Final Four in April -- and on the final weekend of the season for the fifth time in a seven-year span. Single-elimination tournaments of 40-minute basketball games are unpredictable by nature. Only fools guarantee anything. All I'm saying is that we've been here before, watched multiple freshmen-heavy UK teams struggle in league play, and more often than not things have ended up OK. And that's why you should neither be shocked if things also end up OK this season nor surprised that the Wildcats' path to wherever they're going is winding in the ways it's currently winding.
