We've reached that special time of the college football season when we finally begin to get a better idea of which teams are actually good. I'm always grateful for September to arrive every year and bring a new college football season to the masses, but the first few weeks of the season can be deceiving.
The reason for this is that there aren't a lot of conference games in early September. We see more and more every year thanks to television contracts and networks looking for games to air that aren't cupcakes, but September is still a time for some teams to pile up wins and make you wonder if they're better than they are.
This week is the one when we start getting some of those answers.
So before those answers come, I want to peak into my crystal ball here and guess which teams I believe aren't quite as good as their early season records would have you believe. I'm looking for teams that are currently 3-0 or better and trying to figure out which ones will finish closer to 6-6 than 12-0.
I have plenty of options to choose from, and while I do believe all of these teams are going to reach a bowl game this season, some will get there easier than others.
5. Duke: I want to start this off by making it clear that I believe Duke is pretty good this year. Daniel Jones might be the best quarterback in the country you've never heard of, and I never want to take a David Cutcliffe team too lightly. After all, while 2016 may have been rough, this is still a Duke team that won 27 games the previous three seasons.
I'm just still a bit skeptical about this 2017 version simply because two of Duke's wins have come against North Carolina Central and Baylor. The same Baylor that lost to Liberty and UTSA. Its win over Northwestern was solid, but Northwestern also had trouble with a Nevada team that just lost to Idaho State.
The hard part of the schedule is still to come for the Blue Devils. Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech all await, as well as a couple of challenging road games against North Carolina and Wake Forest.
4. Iowa: The good news for Iowa going forward is that it plays in the Big Ten West, a division much more manageable than the East. The bad news for Iowa is it doesn't escape a couple of the East's powers. It starts this weekend with a home game against No. 4 Penn State, and in early November, the Buckeyes will be coming to town.
That's followed by a road trip to Madison, then a Purdue game that suddenly looks more complicated and another road game against Nebraska.
When you look at the rest of the schedule as of now, the only team on it that seems like an obvious win is a home game against Illinois. Then there are three likely losses and five toss-ups.
3. Vanderbilt: I have a soft spot in my heart for the Commodores, but I have to put my emotions aside and embrace reality. I don't think this is a team built to get 10 wins in 2017. It's far more likely to finish with around seven.
Of course, only seven wins might not eliminate it from contention in the consolation prize that is the SEC East race.
Life is about to get harder for the Dores, starting with Alabama on Saturday. Next week, Vandy will hit the road to take on Florida, and the week after that it's Georgia. That's not the easiest three-game stretch, but the good news is things ease up a bit after that. It's just, even if the waters do get calmer, aside from Western Kentucky and probably Missouri, there aren't any games left on this schedule that you would consider likely wins for the Dores.
2. Wake Forest: I mentioned Wake as a difficult road game for Duke earlier, but the good news for Duke is that the Deacons might be worn down by the time they play that last game of the regular season.
The Deacs go on the road to play Appalachian State this weekend, which might be a trickier spot than you think, but the real gauntlet begins afterward. Wake's next five games are Florida State, at Clemson, at Georgia Tech, Louisville and at Notre Dame. If they manage to go 2-3 during that stretch, they have to be feeling great about themselves, but I have a hard time seeing anything better than 1-4 in that stretch.
Syracuse, NC State and Duke will all provide opportunities to pick up that sixth win, though.
1. California: This is the most surprising 3-0 start in the country. Cal isn't 3-0 while playing a patsy nonconference schedule. Sure, it had Weber State in there, but it began the year with a trip across the country to play North Carolina and had Ole Miss come to town last week. That's two Power Five opponents in the noncon, and the Bears won both of them.
I'm shook.
Still, as surprising as this start has been, things are about to get real in a hurry. Cal's next four games are USC, at Oregon, at Washington, and Washington State. There are winnable home games against both Arizona and Oregon State, but there are also three road trips to Colorado, Stanford and UCLA to come as well. So even with the 3-0 start, the Bears could have a tough road to bowl eligibility.
