UCLA's (fat) chance starts with under-regarded Afflalo

The NBA scouts and general managers look at Greg Oden and salivate all over their high tops. They make a mess having erotic dreams about Kevin Durant.

It seems of all the names and declarations of greatness about this stud or that beauty, one is left off the list: UCLA's Arron Afflalo.

Arron Afflalo doesn't get to show all his skills in UCLA's system. (AP)

Is it because Afflalo's name is hard to pronounce, that his skill sets are not ingrained on our memory cells the way Oden's dunks and Durant's 3s are? Is it because he plays on the West Coast, when many East Coast types are tucked away snoozed, safe and deluded in their Eastern biases long before the Bruins take the court?

Afflalo is a known talent, don't misunderstand. You cannot be Pac-10 Player of the Year and an All-American and not end up on someone's highlight reel.

It's just that you hear more about Georgetown's Jeff Green or Roy Hibbert or any of Florida's players before Afflalo's name rolls off most people's lips.

Afflalo's predicament is reminiscent of Michael Jordan at North Carolina. Jordan could have been the most dominant player in NCAA history but was retarded by a restrictive Dean Smith system.

Afflalo is not as talented as Jordan -- the only people more talented than Jordan are God and Halle Berry -- but the principle is similar. Under Ben Howland's defensive system, players are asked to make offensive sacrifices. If Afflalo was allowed to be more free offensively, he'd be averaging 30 points a game instead of 16.9.

He'd be on every highlight the way Durant is. We'd know his middle name and who his girlfriend is.

Maybe this is the tournament when Afflalo becomes a household name and as popular and well known as Oden or Hibbert.

Or maybe not.

UCLA will win if: A brutal case of strep throat sweeps through the Florida locker room and knocks out every Gator except the ball boy, Billy Donovan and Jeremy Foley. Since Foley is a bully, he would play center, Donovan the point and the ball boy the two spot. With three on five, UCLA would win 38-36.

UCLA will lose if: That is like saying the sun will come up if. The sun is rising unless a giant black hole swallows the planet. OK. Sorry. I'll be very serious and tactical and analytical now. UCLA will lose if they do not get at least 25 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists from Lorenzo Mata. There. How's that? Don't want to interrupt the dreams of Bruins fans.

The star who must play like a star is: Afflalo. While UCLA plays outstanding defense, they are going to need great amounts of scoring to keep up with a Gator offense that at times can be truly explosive.

The reserve who must play (kinda) like a star is: Michael Roll. He has averaged 4.9 points a game but does play some significant minutes. Scoring is a must for UCLA, and Roll is someone who has a chance to add some quality minutes and points from the bench.

The player who can't stink is: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute: Try saying that fast three times. He will need to be as tough on the court as his name is long. Mbah a Moute and Mata are UCLA's big men, standing at 6-feet-8 and 6-9. By major college basketball standards, that's short. Mbah a Moute will have to lock down one of the Florida big men in order for the Bruins to have a chance.

Poll Who will win? 69% UCLA   31% Florida   Total Votes: 1328

"You counter their size with quickness," said Mbah a Moute.

That sounds good, but can it really work?

One statistic to watch is: Rebounds. More specifically, second-chance points. If Joakim Noah is getting his normal amount of put-backs and cheap points under the board, Florida will be winning easily.

The other statistic is turnovers. UCLA generates a ton of them.

Final thought: What is the over/under on how many times John Wooden's name will be mentioned Saturday? Thirty, fifty? Several hundred? Twenty-five thousand?