Missouri Valley Conference Preview: Put faith in the Salukis

Half of the schools have new coaches.

Seven all-league players are gone.

Giving coach Chris Lowery a new contract was a wise step by Southern Illinois. (US Presswire)

But this is still the Missouri Valley Conference, the league that has turned into the darling of college basketball while ranking sixth and fourth the past two seasons at CollegeRPI.com.

So though I understand there's a lot of uncertainty with this league, I've just grown to trust it, to know that regardless of how things look in October, that come March there'll be somebody rolling at the top (probably Southern Illinois), somebody right on their heels (probably Bradley), and somebody else who is a little bit better than any of us could've reasonably expected (Illinois State seems like a good candidate).

In other words, the MVC is No. 7 in my countdown of conferences.

The slot is based more on history than anything else. But given the history, it's a pretty safe pick.

1. Southern Illinois

The good: Three starters return from a team that won 29 games and nearly upset Kansas to make the Elite Eight. The headliner is Randal Falker, a 6-foot-7 post player who averaged 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds last season while earning defensive MVP honors on a team that is among the best defensive teams in the nation.

The bad: SIU has proved capable of losing coaches (Bruce Weber and Matt Painter) and players (Kent Williams and Darren Brooks) while never slipping at all. It's inexplicable, really. But that doesn't mean the Salukis won't miss MVC Player of the Year Jamaal Tatum. It just means it probably won't show in the win-loss column.

The bottom line: Signing Chris Lowery to a long-term deal was a huge step for SIU, which seemed determined not to lose another coach to the Big Ten. The gesture screamed stability -- both to Lowery and prospects -- and it's paying off, considering the Salukis have already secured a 2008 recruiting class that will be capable of continuing the winning ways after Falker leads SIU to what should be another league title this season.

2. Bradley

The good: Daniel Ruffin is the NCAA's active leader in assists. Jeremy Crouch shot 50 percent from 3-point range last season. Both are back after leading the Braves to a 22-win campaign that ended with a second-round loss to Mississippi State in the NIT.

The bad: Bradley isn't only without last season's leading scorer (Will Franklin). The Braves also lost two assistant coaches, namely Chuck Buescher and Lennox Forrester. Those are moves that usually go unnoticed, but sometimes staff shake-ups cause problems. So it'll be interesting to see how Jim Les adjusts, or if it matters at all.

The bottom line: The Braves have some question marks in the frontcourt considering they were out-rebounded as a team by nearly seven boards per game last season. But Ruffin and Crouch are good enough to carry them back to the NCAA Tournament, and then they'll try to make the second Sweet 16 appearance of their careers.

3. Missouri State

The good: Barry Hinson is back. And just so we're clear, yes, that's a good thing. The man has had it rough the past two seasons, barely missing the NCAA Tournament both times. But it's insane that a mid-major coach who posted 20 wins (with an RPI of 21) in 2005-06 and 22 wins (with an RPI of 36) in 2006-07 had to spend a week this offseason wondering whether he'd remain employed.

The bad: The Bears are replacing three starters. The most prominent is Blake Ahearn, a two-time first team All-MVC performer who finished his career as the NCAA's all-time best free-throw shooter after making 94.6 percent (435 of 460) of his career attempts.

The bottom line: I'd love to tell you Hinson is going to finally do it this season, break through and make the NCAA Tournament. But the reality is this team probably isn't as talented as his previous two teams. So the guess here is that Missouri State will find itself back in the NIT, though I wouldn't mind being wrong and watching the Bears celebrate on Selection Sunday, if only because I enjoy watching a guy catch a break every now and then.

4. Creighton

The good: Dana Altman went to Arkansas, saw the Hogs get called and got the hell out of town, ASAP. It was a move that inspired Billy Donovan while making the Arkansas administration look silly and the Creighton fan base rejoice.

The bad: Nate Funk, Anthony Tolliver and Nick Porter are gone, meaning Altman wasn't lured back to Omaha by a talented and experienced roster. If he wanted a talented and experienced roster, he should've stayed at Arkansas.

The bottom line: There is little reason to expect Creighton to be very good other than that it is Creighton and Altman is in charge, but that's good enough for me. When a program reaches the postseason 10 consecutive years it deserves the benefit of the doubt.

5. Northern Iowa

The good: The Panthers got some extra practice time and valuable experience this summer representing USA Basketball in the World University Games. They finished ninth overall, but closed with five consecutive wins, including a 63-57 victory over Israel in which Eric Coleman had 14 points and six rebounds.

The bad: Carlton Reed broke a bone in his left foot at practice Saturday. Now he's sidelined for approximately six weeks. The 6-4 guard was expected to challenge for a starting spot after sitting out last season following a transfer from Iowa.

The bottom line: Reed's injury won't help things, but Northern Iowa still returns seven of the top nine scorers from a roster that won 18 games last season. So the Panthers could be better, and better would put them back in the postseason for the fourth time in five years.

6. Illinois State

The good: Tim Jankovich, a former Bill Self assistant at Kansas, takes over the most ready-made team of all the MVC's new coaches. Five of the Redbirds top six scorers return, including Levi Dyer (12.1 points), Boo Richardson (9.8 points) and reigning MVC Freshman of the Year Osiris Eldridge (9.5 points).

The bad: There is a lot of hype around the ISU program, but the facts aren't as kind. The Redbirds were 6-12 in the MVC and 1-8 on the road in the league with the lone victory coming at Indiana State. So though it's nice to have a bunch of returning players, what it means in this case is up for debate.

The bottom line: Depending on whom you ask, Illinois State could finish anywhere from third to seventh in this league. As you can tell, I think the latter is more realistic. But I will not be surprised if this projection is the one that looks silliest in March.

7. Wichita State

The good: P.J. Couisnard made a smart move when he withdrew from the NBA Draft and returned to school. It was a decision that ensured he would avoid the embarrassment of going undrafted, and it helped make what should be a tough task for new coach Gregg Marshall just a tad bit easier.

The bad: Sean Ogirri transferred to Wyoming. One recruit died. So though it is possible for a coach to take over a good situation when he upgrades jobs (like John Pelphrey at Arkansas), Marshall isn't enjoying such a luxury.

The bottom line: Marshall's resume from Winthrop (seven NCAA Tournaments in nine seasons) speaks for itself, and he'll be successful at Wichita State eventually. But this season is going to be a hard season because Mark Turgeon simply didn't leave his successor much to work with.

8. Indiana State

The good: ISU hired Kevin McKenna to replace Royce Waltman. The former Creighton assistant inherits four players who averaged at least nine points last season, most notably Gabe Moore (11.5 points and 3.9 assists).

The bad: The Sycamores have some nice returnees, but none are athletic and/or big enough to help the team improve on its lack of interior presence. Indiana State ranked ninth in the MVC in rebounding margin last season and blocked only 42 shots as a team. How bad is that? Consider five individuals in the MVC had more than 43 on their own.

The bottom line: Indiana State was in the NCAA Tournament in 2000 and 2001, but much has changed since then. Southern Illinois has developed into a prominent figure on the national scene, Wichita State and Bradley have each been to Sweet 16s and Creighton keeps investing like a BCS school. So McKenna's job will be difficult, though he's capable of placing the Sycamores in the middle of the pack.

9. Drake

The good: Keno Davis is replacing his father, Dr. Tom Davis. Far as coaching changes go there probably is no smoother transition in the country, and a duo of solid returnees -- Josh Young and Klayton Korver (yes, that's Kyle's little brother) -- should help Davis adjust quickly in his new role.

The bad: In a league with talented big men like Falker and Coleman, it can't be wise to enter the season without a proven post player. Jonathan Cox is the best option. But he only averaged 5.6 points and 3.4 rebounds last season, and he's just one of two Bulldogs on the roster who stand taller than 6-6.

The bottom line: The Bulldogs produced a winning record for the first time in 20 years last season. It was a nice accomplishment. But doing it two years in a row doesn't seem likely.

10. Evansville

The good: Evansville hired a former player, Marty Simmons, to fix its broken program. It seems to have worked for North Carolina State. Perhaps the Purple Aces can enjoy similar success on a relative scale.

The bad: There is just one senior on the roster. His name is Victor Gomez. He never played more than 13 minutes in a game last season, and he only averaged 1.1 points per contest.

The bottom line: While Simmons spent the past five seasons at Division II Southern Illinois-Edwardsville, Steve Merfield was putting the finishing touches on a 29-61 career record in the MVC that led to his resignation. It was a bad era for Evansville basketball, and Simmons will have a difficult time turning it around quickly considering he has to replace three 1,000-point scorers, including Kyle Anslinger.