Projecting the Field
Projecting the Seeds
(Updated morning of Dec. 12)
It's finals week at many colleges.
So it's a slow week in college basketball.
Which means it's a perfect week to examine how things are unfolding.
The Big 12 (thanks to Texas, among others) seems better than most thought while the SEC (thanks to Mississippi State, among others) seems worse. Meantime, the West Coast Conference looks like a two-bid league (Gonzaga and Saint Mary's), and the Atlantic-10 could earn three bids (Xavier, Dayton and Rhode Island) to become nationally relevant again like it's the 1990s or something.
Anyway, it's time to update the Projecting the Field.
(And the Projecting the Seeds.)
If your favorite school isn't included, it means your favorite school has either not beaten enough good teams or lost to too many bad ones. Or both. And such simply is not the recipe for recognition round these parts, and I would like to send my condolences to the Kentucky fans who are learning this one humbling loss at a time.
Top four seeds by region
| Seed | South | East | Midwest | West |
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
Bubble teams
Last four in: Notre Dame, Creighton, Florida, Florida StateLast four out: Purdue, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Virginia Commonwealth
Bids by conference
| ACC (7) | |
 | Automatic bid: North Carolina |
| At-large: Duke, Clemson, Miami, Boston College, Virginia, Florida State | |
| Bubble: North Carolina State | |
| Comment: FSU has responded nicely since losing to Cleveland State and South Florida. The Seminoles have won six consecutive games, including a double-digit win at Florida. | |
| AMERICA EAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Maryland-Baltimore County |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Retrievers already have two good wins relative to their league, specifically victories over George Washington and Richmond. | |
| ATLANTIC 10 (3) | |
 | Automatic bid: Xavier |
| At-large: Dayton, Rhode Island | |
| Bubble: Charlotte, UMass | |
| Comment: Xavier, Dayton and Rhode Island seem certain to make the Atlantic-10 a multi-bid league again. | |
| ATLANTIC SUN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Belmont |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Belmont already has wins over the Big East (Cincinnati) and SEC (Alabama). | |
| BIG 12 (6) | |
 | Automatic bid: Kansas |
| At-large: Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Missouri, Baylor | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Kansas and Texas give the Big 12 two Final Four candidates, and their Feb. 11 meeting should be a dandy. | |
| BIG EAST (8) | |
 | Automatic bid: Georgetown |
| At-large: Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame | |
| Bubble: Syracuse, Providence | |
| Comment: Louisville is off to a bad start, but through seven games last season the Cards were also 5-2. In other words, they can get this turned around. | |
| BIG SKY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Montana State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Montana State has a losing record through eight games, but that has more to do with its schedule than its team. | |
| BIG SOUTH (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Winthrop |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Eagles beat East Carolina, which is something neither George Mason or N.C. State could do. | |
| BIG TEN (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Michigan State |
| At-large: Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State | |
| Bubble: Purdue, Illinois | |
| Comment: Ultimately, a fifth team will surface here, probably Purdue or Illinois. But neither school got a good win in the first month of the season, and quality opponents dealt them multiple losses each. | |
| BIG WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: UC-Santa Barbara |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Gauchos' won nine of their first 10 games with the only loss coming at Stanford. | |
| COLONIAL (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: George Mason |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth | |
| Comment: VCU is still an NCAA Tournament-caliber team. But the Rams took three losses in November (including a double-digit defeat to Hampton) after not losing their third game until Dec. 30 last season. | |
| CONFERENCE USA (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Memphis |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Houston | |
| Comment: If Houston wants to be taken seriously it needs a non-league win over Kentucky (Dec. 18) or Arizona (Jan. 12), if not both. | |
| HORIZON (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Butler |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Butler isn't going undefeated thanks to that loss at Wright State. Still, the Bulldogs should get 25 wins and remain ranked all season. | |
| IVY LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Cornell |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Cornell's next five games are all on the road. Trips to Syracuse and Duke are among those scheduled. | |
| MAAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Siena |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Siena is in the middle of an extended break, but a nice matchup with Holy Cross looms (Dec. 22). | |
| MAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Miami (Ohio) |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Kent State | |
| Comment: Kent State will be a factor in this league. Still, the edge goes to Miami (Ohio) for now because of wins over Xavier and Mississippi State to go with close losses to Southern California, Dayton and Louisville. | |
| MEAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Hampton |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Hampton has a nine-point win over VCU and three-point loss to George Mason. So the Pirates aren't bad. | |
| MISSOURI VALLEY (2) | |
 | Automatic bid: Southern Illinois |
| At-large: Creighton | |
| Bubble: Bradley, Missouri State | |
| Comment: Southern Illinois got back to looking like itself in a 15-point win over Saint Mary's. | |
| MOUNTAIN WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: BYU |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: San Diego State, UNLV | |
| Comment: BYU has developed into one of the bigger surprises of the season by beating Louisville and playing North Carolina and Michigan State tight. | |
| NORTHEAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Robert Morris |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The pick here is still Robert Morris, but Jeremy Chappell's suspension for violating a team academic rule is hurting, evidence being the Colonials' losses to Central Michigan and St. Francis (Pa.). | |
| OHIO VALLEY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Austin Peay |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Governors got a nice win over Belmont between losses to nationally ranked Vanderbilt and Memphis. | |
| PAC-10 (7) | |
 | Automatic bid: UCLA |
| At-large: Washington State, Oregon, Arizona, Southern California, Stanford, California | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Washington State is the lone remaining undefeated team in the Pac-10, but that doesn't mean UCLA isn't still the favorite in this league. | |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Holy Cross |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Holy Cross could be a scary opponent come March given how the Crusaders have already beaten Saint Joseph's and played Dayton to a one-possession game. | |
| SEC (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Tennessee |
| At-large: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Florida | |
| Bubble: Ole Miss, Mississippi State | |
| Comment: Looks like Andy Kennedy will have Ole Miss competing for an NCAA Tournament berth again despite most believing it wasn't possible in the preseason. | |
| SOUTHERN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Davidson |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Davidson squandered every good opportunity it had to build an at-large resume, but the Wildcats remain the class of this league. | |
| SOUTHLAND (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Sam Houston State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Don't sleep on Bob Marlin's Bearkats. They already own wins over Texas Tech, Fresno State and Saint Louis. | |
| SUMMIT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Oral Roberts |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: ORU has wins over Lamar and Tulsa, which are good victories for a team from this league. | |
| SUN BELT (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Western Kentucky |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: There's no reason to believe Courtney Lee won't lead WKU back to the NCAA Tournament. | |
| SWAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Alabama State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: It's still reasonable to expect Jackson State to win the SWAC despite losing 10 of its first 11 games, crazy at that sounds. | |
| WAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Nevada |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: This is not a good season for the WAC, which already has no shot at being a two-bid league. | |
| WEST COAST (2) | |
 | Automatic bid: Gonzaga |
| At-large: Saint Mary's | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Despite Saint Mary's' impressive start, Gonzaga is still the projected champion because it still has the WCC's most talented roster. | |
