Projecting the Field
Projecting the Seeds
(Updated morning of Jan. 2, 2008)
Things are mostly unfolding how I expected.
Sure, some teams (Ole Miss and Rhode Island) are better than I thought while others (Oregon and Louisville) are worse. But the top-tier schools are just as solid as I always believed they'd be, evidence being how the top four in my preseason rankings -- Memphis, UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas -- have compiled a 49-1 record to date.
Consequently, those are my four No. 1 seeds as we embark on this New Year.
(Happy New Year, by the way)
And if I was a betting man (which I am) I would feel safe laying a decent amount of cash (if given proper odds) on the idea that the Tigers, Bruins, Tar Heels and Jayhawks will be the No. 1 seeds when the NCAA Tournament selection committee unveils its bracket March 16.
So that's what I'm projecting here in the latest Projecting the Field.
Top four seeds by region
| Seed | South | East | Midwest | West |
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
Bubble teams
Last four in: Arkansas, Florida, Syracuse, NebraskaLast four out: Virginia Commonwealth, N.C. State, Illinois State, Oregon
Bids by conference
| ACC (6) | |
 | Automatic bid: North Carolina |
| At-large: Duke, Clemson, Miami, Virginia, Boston College | |
| Bubble: North Carolina State, Florida State | |
| Comment: Duke's wins against Marquette and Wisconsin look better now than they did when they happened. | |
| AMERICA EAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Maryland-Baltimore County |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Retrievers finished the non-league portion of their schedule by playing Ohio State to single digits. | |
| ATLANTIC 10 (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Dayton |
| At-large: Rhode Island, Xavier, UMass | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The A-10 is as good at the top as some of the power leagues this season thanks to Dayton, Rhode Island and Xavier, specifically. | |
| ATLANTIC SUN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Belmont |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Belmont finished non-league play with an 8-6 record that should have it prepared for the Atlantic Sun portion of its schedule. | |
| BIG 12 (6) | |
 | Automatic bid: Kansas |
| At-large: Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Nebraska | |
| Bubble: Kansas State, Missouri | |
| Comment: At least eight Big 12 schools have legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Kansas seems capable of winning it all. | |
| BIG EAST (8) | |
 | Automatic bid: Marquette |
| At-large: Georgetown, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse | |
| Bubble: Providence | |
| Comment: Pitt is still talented enough to make the NCAA Tournament despite injuries to Mike Cook and Levance Fields. | |
| BIG SKY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Northern Arizona |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Three of Northern Arizona's early losses were to Arizona, Kansas and UNLV. | |
| BIG SOUTH (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Winthrop |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Winthrop beat Miami to end the Hurricanes' perfect season. | |
| BIG TEN (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Michigan State |
| At-large: Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State | |
| Bubble: Purdue | |
| Comment: Both Michigan State and Indiana seem capable of making the Final Four. | |
| BIG WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: UC-Santa Barbara |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The Gauchos' won 11 of their first 13 games with the only losses coming at Stanford and North Carolina. | |
| COLONIAL (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: George Mason |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Virginia Commonwealth | |
| Comment: George Mason has wins over Dayton and Kansas State. | |
| CONFERENCE USA (2) | |
 | Automatic bid: Memphis |
| At-large: Houston | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Memphis will, barring a huge upset, take an undefeated record into its Jan. 26 game with Gonzaga. | |
| HORIZON (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Butler |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Butler has victories over Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Florida State and Southern Illinois. | |
| IVY LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Cornell |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Cornell is in the middle of a stretch of six consecutive road games. | |
| MAAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Siena |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Siena solidified itself as the class of this league with a victory over Stanford. | |
| MAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Kent State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: This league will probably come down to Kent State and Miami-Ohio, and either would be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. | |
| MEAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Hampton |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Hampton was solid against both Colonial powers, beating VCU and playing George Mason to a three-point game. | |
| MISSOURI VALLEY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Drake |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Illinois State, Creighton | |
| Comment: The MVC will likely get a second bid come March based on the RPI. But right now nobody is obviously worthy. | |
| MOUNTAIN WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: BYU |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State | |
| Comment: New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State all have nice records. But there are no notable wins for any of them (at this point). | |
| NORTHEAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Sacred Heart |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Sacred Heart won just three of 11 non-conference games. So it's a good thing those are all in the past. | |
| OHIO VALLEY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Austin Peay |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The OVC is the worst league in the nation, according to CollegeRPI.com. | |
| PAC-10 (6) | |
 | Automatic bid: UCLA |
| At-large: Washington State, Arizona, Southern California, Stanford, Arizona State | |
| Bubble: California, Oregon | |
| Comment: Oregon finished its non-conference schedule with a 9-3 record featuring losses to Saint Mary's (understandable), Nebraska (kind of understandable) and Oakland (totally unacceptable). | |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Holy Cross |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Holy Cross has stumbled since starting 6-0. But the Crusaders will still take a winning record into league play. | |
| SEC (5) | |
 | Automatic bid: Tennessee |
| At-large: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida | |
| Bubble: Mississippi State | |
| Comment: It seems this will be one of the rare seasons in which Kentucky doesn't make the NCAA Tournament. | |
| SOUTHERN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Davidson |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Davidson squandered every good opportunity it had to build an at-large resume, but the Wildcats remain the class of this league. | |
| SOUTHLAND (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Sam Houston State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Bob Marlin's Bearkats own wins over Texas Tech, Fresno State and Saint Louis. | |
| SUMMIT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Oral Roberts |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: ORU has wins over Lamar, Tulsa and Oklahoma State, which are good victories for a team from this league. | |
| SUN BELT (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Western Kentucky |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Western Kentucky beat Nebraska and played Gonzaga and Tennessee close. | |
| SWAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Alabama State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: How bad is this league? To date, the SWAC's record is 8-84 against Division I opponents. | |
| WAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Boise State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Everybody in the WAC except Boise State has more than three losses. | |
| WEST COAST (2) | |
 | Automatic bid: Gonzaga |
| At-large: Saint Mary's | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The pick here will remain Gonzaga until the Zags start losing WCC games. | |
