Friday Look Ahead: Tigers' roar has resonance this time
Somebody named Ryan Parker has penned a tune titled I Expect to Win.
It chronicles the disastrous start to Kentucky's season. Though not a classic, it's not altogether bad either.
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| When Mays was out injured, Raymond Sykes stepped up and got valuable experience. (AP) |
Then move on to the Friday Look Ahead.
Game worth flying to see in person: Last season's collapse is causing many to be skeptical of Clemson. So despite the 12-1 record and No. 19 national ranking, I still get e-mails suggesting the Tigers are a fraud, they will fall apart again, they've beaten nobody of note and lost to the only ranked team (Ole Miss) on the schedule. For the record, I don't buy it. I believe Oliver Purnell is going to the NCAA Tournament. But the best way to convince the nation is for the Tigers to open ACC play Sunday with an upset of top-ranked North Carolina, and a homecourt advantage and healthy James Mays should give them a decent shot.
Game worth driving to see in person: The sentiment from Pittsburgh fans is that everything will be fine despite injuries to Mike Cook and Levance Fields, but I have my doubts because it's difficult to envision too many teams not slipping after losing their second-best and fourth-best scorers. So the question isn't whether the No. 13 Panthers will slip, but how far? Are they still a legitimate Top 15 team? Top 25? Sunday should provide some answers when Pitt visits 17th-ranked Villanova.
Game worth watching on TV: If you're interested in high-level basketball, there are better ways to spend your Saturday. But those who enjoy drama rooted in desperation must tune to CBS for the Kentucky-Louisville matchup featuring two storied programs spiraling the wrong way. A win won't mean much for either team, but a loss could send a fanbase into a further state of depression. That's a neat way of looking at it. That's why I'll be watching.
Some non-BCS love: The problem with being a school like Saint Mary's is that it's simple to slip from the national radar once you take your first defeat. That's pretty much what happened when the Gaels lost at Southern Illinois last month. But they've responded nicely with five consecutive wins, and with Saturday's game at Texas comes an opportunity to grab headlines (and return to the AP poll). A win against the 14th-ranked Longhorns, and the Gaels will be the West Coast Conference favorites. A great game against D.J. Augustin, and Patrick Mills will further solidify himself as one of the best point guards in the nation.
An obvious prediction: The Michigan State-Minnesota game seems intriguing on paper because it features two teams with good records. Problem is, Minnesota's good record is meaningless because it's comprised of 10 wins against average-to-bad opponents and a pair of double-digit losses to Florida State and UNLV, otherwise known as the only quality teams on the schedule. So what I'm trying to say is that this shouldn't be competitive, that the sixth-ranked Spartans will cruise.
A crazy prediction (but it might happen anyway): One of the best bargains in searching for headline-grabbing upsets is to find quality teams that are hosting higher-ranked teams because homecourt advantage can be huge in such instances. That's why I'm going with Clemson over North Carolina, because it fits the same criteria that gave me Dayton over Pittsburgh last week. Of course, North Carolina is better than Pittsburgh. But whatever. Let's see how it goes.
Player trying to keep rolling: Jamar Butler heads into Sunday's game against Northwestern on quite the hot streak. The Ohio State senior is 15-of-28 the past two games for a combined 54 points after Thursday's 32-point effort at Illinois. And though it has nothing to do with anything, it's hard not to wonder how many Eric Gordon will drop on the Illini after watching Butler -- a 14-point per game scorer -- get 32.
Player trying to get rolling: Tajuan Porter's shooting woes are becoming a concern at Oregon. He shot 43.7 percent from 3-point range last season, but the sophomore is well off that pace because he has missed 16 of his past 18 attempts from behind the arc. Meantime, Oregon has dropped two of its past three games and winning Saturday at Arizona doesn't seem likely unless Porter starts making.
Three things you should know before you go
1. Most people are aware that there are six undefeated teams remaining. On the other end of the spectrum there are three winless teams left, specifically New Jersey Tech (0-16), Grambling State (0-7) and Alcorn State (0-11). All three play Saturday. So wish them luck. They could use it.
2. Those back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Tennessee seem to have motivated Xavier. The Musketeers have responded with a 65-33 win over Delaware State, a 103-77 win over Kansas State and a 108-70 win over Virginia. In other words, Auburn might be catching Sean Miller's team at a bad time when the Tigers and Musketeers play Sunday.
3. Do you realize Butler is entering the weekend in fifth place in the Horizon League standings? Obviously, it's too early to mean much. But a loss in Saturday's matchup against first-place Valparaiso would drop Butler to 1-2 in the conference while Valpo moves to 3-0. So in some respects this game is as important to Brad Stevens as any of the more high-profile non-league contests he has already won.
Final thought: One of John Calipari's standard lines is that Memphis plays on national television as much as any team in the country despite its unfortunate league affiliation, and when the words leave his mouth they really are convincing. So people hear them and repeat them. But the reality is that isn't the reality of the situation at all, and another example will come Saturday when the Tigers host Pepperdine in a game that will not be televised nationally.
Memphis only has two national TV games left. One is against Mark Few's Gonzaga Bulldogs in late January, the other is against Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Vols in late February.
(Note: Just so we're clear, I don't consider ESPNU or CSTV true national networks because they aren't readily available to normal TV viewers.)
Add it up and Memphis will play a total of just nine nationally televised games during the regular season while North Carolina plays 22 (nine already; 13 to come) and Kansas (five already; 10 to come) and UCLA (seven already; eight to come) each play 15. So though it's true that Conference USA will not limit the Tigers' ability to earn a No. 1 seed, it seems destined to greatly limit the amount of people who will get to watch them try to earn that seed regardless of what Coach Cal constantly preaches to the masses.
