Projecting the Field
Projecting the Seeds
(Updated morning of Jan. 23, 2008)
Last week I used this space to explain how the No. 1 seeds had separated themselves to the point where it was safe to go ahead and tattoo North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas and UCLA across the top line. Remember that? If so, I'd like you to now forget it, because it was foolish and way too early to be writing in such absolutes, which is something I realized when North Carolina and UCLA took home losses within 10 minutes of each other.
First Maryland beat the Tar Heels.
Then Southern California beat the Bruins.
So now I'm reshuffling everything for the latest Projecting the Field.
Top four seeds by region
| Seed | South | Midwest | West | East |
| 1 |  |  |  |  |
| 2 |  |  |  |  |
| 3 |  |  |  |  |
| 4 |  |  |  |  |
Bubble teams
Last four in: Louisville, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Southern CaliforniaLast four out: Illinois State, Florida, Arkansas, North Carolina State
Bids by conference
| ACC (5) | |
 | Automatic bid: Duke |
| At-large: North Carolina, Clemson, Boston College, Miami | |
| Bubble: North Carolina State, Virginia, Maryland | |
| Comment: That win at North Carolina gave Maryland some hope for an NCAA Tournament berth. | |
| AMERICA EAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Maryland-Baltimore County |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: UMBC improved to 5-2 in the league with Tuesday night's win over Boston University. | |
| ATLANTIC 10 (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Dayton |
| At-large: Xavier, UMass, Rhode Island | |
| Bubble: Saint Joseph's | |
| Comment: The A-10 will be the easy pick for the most improved league if it gets these four at-large bids. | |
| ATLANTIC SUN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Belmont |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Though Jacksonville is 5-0 in the league, Belmont remains the pick here. | |
| BIG 12 (6) | |
 | Automatic bid: Kansas |
| At-large: Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma | |
| Bubble: Missouri | |
| Comment: Michael Beasley might just get to play in the NCAA Tournament after all. | |
| BIG EAST (9) | |
 | Automatic bid: Georgetown |
| At-large: Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Villanova, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, UConn, Providence | |
| Bubble: Syracuse | |
| Comment: UConn got its signature win thanks to that 89-73 victory over Marquette. | |
| BIG SKY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Northern Arizona |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Three Northern Arizona players are averaging double-digits in points, including senior forward Kyle Landry. | |
| BIG SOUTH (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Winthrop |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Winthrop remains the smart pick here despite trailing North Carolina-Asheville in the standings. | |
| BIG TEN (5) | |
 | Automatic bid: Indiana |
| At-large: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue | |
| Bubble: Minnesota | |
| Comment: The Big Ten will get five bids as long as Ohio State and Purdue can avoid bad losses in the league. | |
| BIG WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Cal State Northridge |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Cal State Northridge, led by junior Deon Trezvant, is 5-0 in the league. | |
| COLONIAL (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Virginia Commonwealth |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: George Mason | |
| Comment: Anthony Grant appears headed for his second consecutive CAA title (and multiple job offers, in due time). | |
| CONFERENCE USA (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Memphis |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Barring a major slip-up (or a loss to Tennessee next month) Memphis will take an undefeated record into the NCAA Tournament. | |
| HORIZON (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Butler |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Cleveland State | |
| Comment: Butler is in second place in the Horizon standings, but the Bulldogs should be fine when the schedule balances. | |
| IVY LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Cornell |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Cornell opened league play with a win over Columbia. | |
| MAAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Siena |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Siena is a one-point loss against Fairfield from being perfect in league play. | |
| MAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Kent State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Ohio | |
| Comment: Kent State, Akron or Ohio could take this league's automatic bid, plus Miami-Ohio always seems dangerous. | |
| MEAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Hampton |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Hampton is the only MEAC team without a league loss. | |
| MISSOURI VALLEY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Drake |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: Illinois State, Creighton | |
| Comment: Illinois State was the last team left out of this field, primarily because it is just 1-3 against the Top 50 with no good non-league wins. | |
| MOUNTAIN WEST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: San Diego State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: UNLV, BYU, New Mexico | |
| Comment: Utah lost two of its first three MWC games to damage its at-large chances. | |
| NORTHEAST (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Quinnipiac |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: First-year coach Tom Moore has Quinnipiac in position to make the NCAA Tournament. | |
| OHIO VALLEY (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Austin Peay |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Austin Peay has won eight of its past nine games with the lone loss in the stretch coming at Murray State. | |
| PAC-10 (7) | |
 | Automatic bid: Washington State |
| At-large: UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, Southern California, Oregon | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: It's going to be hard for UCLA to reach its potential until everybody is healthy. | |
| PATRIOT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Lafayette |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: It appears the Patriot League's bid will come down to Lafayette, Bucknell or American. | |
| SEC (4) | |
 | Automatic bid: Tennessee |
| At-large: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State | |
| Bubble: Florida, Arkansas | |
| Comment: The Gators have a bunch of wins, but their best to date are against Temple and Kentucky. | |
| SOUTHERN (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Davidson |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Davidson is 9-0 in league play and the Wildcats haven't lost since Dec. 21. | |
| SOUTHLAND (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Stephen F. Austin |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Josh Alexander is averaging 16 points per game for Stephen F. Austin. | |
| SUMMIT LEAGUE (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Oral Roberts |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: ORU is the only team in this league with a Top 100 RPI. | |
| SUN BELT (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: South Alabama |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Ronnie Arrow is proving to be the perfect replacement for John Pelphrey at South Alabama. | |
| SWAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Alabama State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: The SWAC is rated as the worst league in the country at CollegeRPI.com. | |
| WAC (1) | |
 | Automatic bid: Utah State |
| At-large: None | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Utah State is the only WAC school with no league losses thanks to Jaycee Carroll averaging 21.6 points per game. | |
| WEST COAST (2) | |
 | Automatic bid: Gonzaga |
| At-large: Saint Mary's | |
| Bubble: None | |
| Comment: Gonzaga and Saint Mary's are both cruising through the league, as expected. | |
