They are declaring for the NBA Draft one after another, all saying the same things, all talking about fulfilling dreams. It's less surprising than an Amy Winehouse binge. Do me a favor and remember this column next January when you hear some underclassman star yapping about how much he loves school and wouldn't mind doing another year.
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| Anybody with any sense could see that O.J. Mayo wasn't going to return. (US Presswire) |
It'll help you remain sensible while others become senseless.
And yes, others will become senseless just like they always become senseless.
Top reasons for O.J. Mayo to stay
-- Los Angeles Times, March 12
Return would be Mayo's legacy
-- The Daily Trojan, March 26
Those are two headlines printed before Southern California star O.J. Mayo announced he was entering the NBA Draft. I bring them up not to poke fun at the respective papers, but to point out how some coaches, fans and even writers seem to always hold out hope that the elite-level prospect performing for their favorite school is somehow different than all the other elite-level prospects before him.
Problem is, elite-level prospects are almost never different, which is why O.J. Mayo was never going to do a second year in school any more than Kevin Durant was ever going to do a second year in school because to do a second year in school would be to delay -- or even squander -- millions of guaranteed dollars, and who in the world would walk away from that kind of cash?
Besides Dave Chapelle, of course?
It would be ludicrous to turn away from the money NBA teams (and sneaker companies) are willing to place on the table for an O.J. Mayo or Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose or Kevin Love or Eric Gordon or Jerryd Bayless or Anthony Randolph or DeAndre Jordan.
Don't give me the line about how spending another year in school might make those guys better players. Sure, they could become better players, I guess. But better players aren't necessarily better prospects, meaning the theory that staying in college is a good way for a top 20 pick to launch himself into the upper half of the lottery is one of the great myths going.
It just rarely happens that way.
As proof, I submit Georgetown's Roy Hibbert.
You remember Hibbert, right? He's the 7-foot-2 center almost everybody had in the lottery of the 2007 NBA Draft after he played well against Greg Oden in the Final Four. If Joakim Noah and Spencer Hawes could go in the top 10, so could Hibbert. But rather than cash in he returned to the Hoyas, at which time I predicted Hibbert would not help himself in any tangible way by going back to school.
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More specifically, I claimed one of two things would happen.
1. Hibbert would stay about the same in terms of draft position.
2. Hibbert would actually hurt himself after being additionally analyzed.
For those who haven't been paying attention, Option No. 2 is how this played out. Hibbert averaged 13.4 points and 6.4 rebounds as a senior, not much different from the 12.9 points and 6.9 rebounds he averaged as a junior. Still, his stock has plummeted in scout's eyes because he's now deemed too slow and unathletic to flourish in the NBA. I happen to agree.
But that's not the point as much as the point is that had Hibbert followed the simple rule Mayo, Bayless, Love and most everybody else is following this year -- i.e., turn pro and take the money at the first reasonable opportunity -- then he'd be a wealthier man for it.
How much wealthier?
Consider that had Hibbert been the 10th pick in the 2007 draft he would have earned $1,690,500 in his first season and signed a guaranteed two-year contract worth $3,507,800. As for the 2008 NBA Draft, it remains unclear where Hibbert will be selected. But it's worth noting that NBADraft.net has him slotted 25th, and the 25th pick will earn only $867,200 in his first season and sign a guaranteed two-year contract worth $1,799,500.
In other words, it's reasonable to suggest Hibbert might have cost himself $823,300 over the first year of his contract and a total of roughly $1.7 million over the first two years of his contract by returning to school. Don't think agents (or people working on behalf of agents) didn't mention this to every projected lottery pick this year given how every projected lottery pick is expected to be in this draft (sans Oklahoma's Blake Griffin).
So, like I asked before, please remember this column next January when Southern California freshman Demar DeRozan starts explaining how he really enjoys his teammates or when Ohio State freshman B.J. Mullens goes on and on about how much he digs that English Composition class.
Once again, it likely won't mean a thing. The reality is that when it's time to declare no amount of love for college or college basketball should be enough to make a projected lottery pick turn down the two-year contract worth $2.96 million that the worst of the lottery picks is guaranteed. That is why you would be wise to never envision such scenarios because you'll usually just end up wrong and disappointed and looking silly, all at the same time.
