Turns out, Duke doesn't really get all the calls.
I know this is shocking, particularly for North Carolina fans. But I've torn through Robbie Allen's fine website, examined the numbers and come to the conclusion that one of the great theories of college basketball is actually just a myth. Consequently, I can now update my list of favorite myths.
1. Don't swim within 30 minutes of eating.
(Not true, kids. You can swim whenever you like ... as long as you are able to, you know, swim.)
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| Jim Calhoun's UConn Huskies have led the nation in call differential in two of the past three seasons. (Getty Images) |
(Also not true. I dated a blonde once. She was miserable, though I'm told that's because she was dating me.)
3. Duke gets all the calls.
(Again, not true. Just keep reading ...)
I mentioned Robbie Allen earlier. You don't know him but you should. He launched an interesting stats-driven website last year called StatSheet.com that breaks down pretty much everything available in your standard box score. Recently, he added referee stats. So after I wrote a column about referees a few weeks back I decided to spend a night looking at his information, at which time I learned all sorts of neat things.
Like:
• Steve Welmer works a lot.
(He did 111 games last season.)
• Ted Valentine lets guys play.
(There was an average of just 32 total fouls in games he called last season.)
• Curtis Shaw doesn't take crap from anybody.
(Technical fouls were called in 48 of the 102 games he officiated last season.)
Seriously, it's interesting stuff laid out so even a simple product of public schools like yours truly can understand. And though I wasn't surprised by anything about a specific referee (I've sat courtside and seen Shaw give more technicals than I can count), what did shock me was when I looked at how specific teams have been officiated and learned the difference between fouls called on Duke and fouls called on Duke opponents isn't nearly what a Duke-hater would like to believe.
Sure, Duke opponents are whistled for more fouls than Duke on average.
All myths are rooted in some truth, after all.
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But consider that last season Duke was called for 19.2 fouls per contest, as opposed to Duke's opponents being called for 22.3. That's a differential of minus-3.1, well behind the minus-6.6 Connecticut enjoyed. In fact, the Blue Devils only ranked 15th nationally in foul differential last season, putting them behind rivals North Carolina State (minus-3.9) and North Carolina (minus-3.7), proving not everything went poorly for Sidney Lowe in his second year on the job.
Anyway, it gets worse.
Duke was 35th in foul differential two years ago at minus-2.3 -- nestled between other famous call-getters Portland State (minus-2.2) and Eastern Washington (minus-2.4) -- and the reality is that in the past six seasons the Blue Devils have only once ranked in the top 10 in foul differential. That came in 2005-06, when they ranked sixth, and it followed years of them ranking 66th (in 2002-03), 45th (in 2003-04) and 30th (in 2004-05).
Meantime, Connecticut has ranked in the top five of foul differential each of the past four seasons, including first (with a minus-5.3) in 2005-06 and first (with a minus-6.6) in 2007-08. So it appears it's actually UConn that referees are favoring these days, and Mike Krzyzewski should get to work on this as soon as he returns from China, especially if the Olympic calls tend not to go his way.
