Hoops class fully in session, it's time for November lessons
By Gary Parrish | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow GaryCoaches spend a lot of time explaining early losses with a single phrase.
It's still November.
If I've heard it once I've heard it a bazillion times.
But guess what?
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| Danny Green is having no problem with the new 3-point line, shooting 54.8 percent. (Getty Images) |
It's December, baby!
Which means we can now take a breath, collect our thoughts and try to figure out what we've been watching, and what we've learned. So without further hesitation (and pointless words), here are five things we learned in November:
1. North Carolina is awesome
The discussion should no longer be about whether UNC is the best team in the country, but rather if the Tar Heels can go down as one of the best teams in history. And yes, I'm serious. They just beat the mess out of a legitimate top 10 opponent (Notre Dame) and are being as thoroughly dominant as a team with at least five or six future pros on it should be. They are good or great at every position, experienced and being run by a Hall of Fame coach. So the goal should be to get Tyler Hansbrough healthy and shoot for an undefeated season.
Sure, it'll be difficult with games against Michigan State (in Detroit), Wake Forest (away), Miami (home and away) and Duke (home and away), plus the ACC and NCAA tournaments. If you're betting, bet against it because the Tar Heels will likely slip up somewhere. But I've written it before and I'll write it again: Anybody who doesn't believe an undefeated season is possible is silly, because UNC is that good, and when the Tar Heels play well they are unbeatable. To lose, they'll have to play poorly, and so far they haven't played anywhere close to poorly enough to manufacture a defeat.
2. The extended 3-point line isn't changing the game much
I guess folks spent about a year talking about how moving the 3-point back a foot would open up the game, cut down on the number of attempts, blah, blah, blah. But the reality is that it isn't having much of an effect at all, as evidenced by the research over at StatSheet.com.
Robbie Allen, the smart dude who runs the site, has gathered all the data and found that though the number of attempts per game is down and the number of those attempts being made is down, they are only down by a tiny margin. Last November, games featured an average of 39.0 combined 3-point attempts, and 34.6 percent of those attempts were made. This November, games featured an average of 37.6 combined 3-point attempts, and 33.7 percent of those attempts were made. In other words, games now feature an average of 1.4 fewer 3-point attempts, and the success rate is down less than one percentage point.
Does that sound like a sport-altering rule change to you?
3. A non-BCS school will challenge for the national title
The last team that wasn't a member of one of the current BCS-affiliated leagues to win the NCAA tournament was UNLV in 1991. That was a long time ago. And though Memphis came close to ending the streak last April, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and events in which Mario Chalmers is not involved.
But rejoice, non-BCS fans!
You have another serious threat in the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who have the type of roster to make a Final Four and possibly win it all if North Carolina somehow screws this up or gets hit with more injuries. Put another way, Gonzaga is as good or better than everybody not named North Carolina, because the Zags are no longer that cute and cuddly little team that plays late at night on ESPN. Rather, they are an experienced and immensely talented team with an All-America-caliber point guard (Jeremy Pargo), a big-bodied and productive center (Josh Heytvelt) and enough pieces in between (Austin Daye, Steven Gray, Micah Downs, Matt Bouldin) to run up and down the court with anybody, which is why I genuinely expect to see them in Detroit in early April.
4. Blake Griffin will be the top pick in the NBA Draft
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| Your No. 1 NBA Draft pick in June: Blake Griffin. (Getty Images) |
Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley?
Greg Oden or Kevin Durant?
But the 2009 NBA Draft should be about as simple as the 2003 NBA Draft, when the Cavs won the lottery and were prepared to select LeBron James that very moment. Same scenario here. Whichever franchise gets lucky will select Oklahoma's Blake Griffin, the 6-foot-10 forward who is averaging 25.7 points and 19.2 rebounds for the sixth-ranked Sooners. He has the rare combination of size and athleticism, and there should be no questions about his character because he comes from a good family, and the worst thing I've ever heard about him is that he once urinated on a bush outside a party.
Raise your hand if you've never done that.
So the real question is who will be picked second?
My early guesses (hey, it's still almost November) are Connecticut's Hasheem Thabeet, Arizona State's James Harden or European sensation Ricky Rubio. If you're looking for a freshman, I guess any of the consensus top five guys could get the nod. But I'm kind of down on the freshmen at this moment, which brings me to ...
5. The freshmen really aren't that special
I knew all along, like most, that this freshman class wouldn't measure up because there was no Kevin Love, O.J. Mayo or even Anthony Randolph. But I'm still a little surprised that none of the top guys have exploded the way Jerryd Bayless or Eric Gordon did last season, because though I didn't think there was much depth to the class I thought at the very least that somebody like USC's DeMar DeRozan or Ohio State's B.J. Mullens would be great from the start.
Not happening.
DeRozan is averaging just 9.7 points per game for a two-loss team, and the poor guy still hasn't made a 3-pointer (0-of-7 to date). Meantime, Mullens is averaging 5.7 points and 2.3 rebounds in only 16.3 minutes per contest, which is not the kind of stat line this year's top incoming center should be producing. But I don't want to just pick on DeRozan and Mullens, because pretty much the entire group has been a disappointment to various degrees sans Oklahoma's Willie Warren, UConn's Kemba Walker, Wake Forest's Al-Farouq Aminu and a few others.
Oh, for the days of Carmelo Anthony.
Hell, I'd settle for another Javaris Crittenton, at this point.




