Projecting the Field: Almost there
Updated March 15, 4:20 p.m. ET
Just the Big Ten championship game remains, so here is a nearly final look at the bracket.
There seems to be almost as much excitement about which teams will be the No. 1 seeds as to which teams will be the last at-large teams in the field.
I have the top line as UNC, Louisville, Pitt and UConn, in that order. Duke could possibly take the Huskies' spot, but maybe not. It would have been better for the Blue Devils if they were playing North Carolina. Michigan State blew its chance Saturday in a non-competitive loss to Ohio State. Memphis doesn't have the number and quality of big wins to compete with these other teams for the top line.
At the bottom, USC stole a bid Saturday with a comeback win over Arizona State in the Pac 10 championship. Mississippi State stole one Sunday by beating Tennessee. Creighton is the team coming out of this bracket because of the Bulldogs' win. Some unluckly team, maybe the same one, will come off the committee's board. We'll just never know which one.
Top seed Stephen F. Austin winning the Southland title helped other bubble teams.
Fortunately, unlike last year, the Big Ten game does not appear to have a chance to change the bracket. That is the latest of today's games. That game is the lead-in to the selection show on CBS, so it puts a lot of pressure on the committee when it matters to the bracket, like last year.
This just in from the shameless plug department: CBS College Sports network has a pre-selection show starting a 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, and a post-selection show beginning at 7 p.m. ET. I will be on both of those shows helping to decipher the hows and whys of what the committee will do, and then what they did.
Reminders
• As you go down the bracket and follow the teams from a particular conference, you can assume the seeding will roughly match the order they finished in the conference standings. Non-conference performance can sometimes override that, as well as the conference tournament.
• Sometimes a team has to be moved up or down a one from its true seed to follow bracketing rules, especially the one regarding the separation of teams from the same conference. Typically, the more teams a league has in the bracket, the more seed swapping has to be done to make them fit. The committee will also move teams up and down solely to allow teams to play closer to home. You see that kind of thing more often at the bottom of the bracket.
• Even though North Carolina is the overall No. 1 seed in this bracket, the opening-round winner was assigned to play Louisville because it is the highest seed at a Friday-Sunday location.
The Seeds
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Last four in: Minnesota, Dayton, Maryland, Saint Mary's.
First four out: Auburn, Penn State, San Diego State, Creighton.
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 6 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 1 | Mountain West | 2 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 3 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 7 | Horizon | 2 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 5 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 7 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 3 |
Detailed Breakdown
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