Pressure cooking, could bust hopes for Butler, Davidson

Ronald Nored is a freshman.

Also, naïve.

"The next step is just to go to Davidson," he told reporters Wednesday night after Butler's 63-60 loss at Milwaukee. "The pressure's off."

Off?

Actually, Ronald, it's just the opposite, and suddenly Saturday's highest-profile BracketBuster game is important in a way that didn't seem likely when it was announced two weeks ago that the Bulldogs would visit Davidson. At the time, Butler was 21-2, ranked 15th in the country and safely in every projected field known to man; Davidson was 20-4 and riding the nation's leading scorer to one big Southern Conference win after another.

Life was good.

But then Butler forgot how to shoot.

And then Stephen Curry sprained his ankle.

So now the Bulldogs and Wildcats -- both of whom lost Wednesday -- will limp (in Davidson's case, literally) into this weekend's made-for-TV event, and if Nored really thinks "the pressure's off" then he's going to need to stop reading now, because I'm not interested in ruining his version of reality.

(Go ahead, Ronald. Turn away.)

Note to everybody (except Ronald): The pressure is most definitely on.

Here's why: Butler is now 27th in the CBSSports.com RPI, the loser of three of its past six and in possession of just two top 50 wins (vs. Xavier and UAB), both of which came in December. And you know what? That alone is probably OK. But the problem is that there are three more regular season games to go, plus the Horizon tournament, and the Bulldogs suddenly look like the young team picked fifth in the preseason league standings.

Consider that on Wednesday night they lost to an 11-loss Milwaukee team they beat by 30 just last month, most obviously because they missed 13 of 16 3-point attempts. Game before that, they lost to a 15-loss Loyola (Illinois) team they beat by 23 just last month, most obviously because they missed 20 of 26 3-point attempts, and I don't know if you've watched Butler much this season, but if the Bulldogs don't make shots they tend to look average.

Like an NIT team.

The thought of that seems wild given how well the season started, and just so we're clear, I'm not predicting it. My guess is that Brad Stevens will steady things, close the regular season with a pair of wins and then take the Horizon tournament title, at which point Butler will own the league's automatic bid. The Bulldogs won't get a good seed, of course, and that'll make advancing difficult. But they should still be in the NCAA tournament even with a loss at Davidson, because the key, honestly, is avoiding another league loss.

Why?

Because another league loss would be a fourth league loss, and will the selection committee really be impressed by a team struggling down the stretch with four league losses in what is rated as the nation's 10th-best conference? I mean, there's nothing wrong with playing in the nation's 10th-rated conference, and nothing a team in such a conference can do about it. But to be taken seriously, you must dominate a conference like that, and four regular-season losses in the league plus another in the league tournament doesn't qualify as domination. Rather, it's mediocre, which is why a fourth Horizon loss in the regular season will have the Bulldogs sweating on Selection Sunday unless they were to earn the automatic bid.

Of course, a win at Davidson on Saturday could make some of this moot.

If that happens, then it'll be the Wildcats who are in trouble.

The loss Wednesday night to the Citadel can be discounted because Curry didn't play, but unless the committee is willing to give Saint Mary's a pass for losing without Patrick Mills then it probably can't justify totally excusing Davidson. It'll be an interesting debate. But it's important to note that even with Curry, the Wildcats don't have a body of work that screams automatic bid (just two top 100 victories, one of which came against West Virginia when Alex Ruoff was injured), which is why a home loss to a struggling Butler team might put the Wildcats in a situation where winning the Southern Conference tournament is the only way to ensure Curry will be a part of the NCAA tournament he dominated last season.

Can you imagine?

March Madness without Stephen Curry?

(Not to mention cut-aways to Stephen Curry's mom).

It would be disappointing and crazy and unfortunate, and yet a reality unless Davidson closes strong and/or earns its league's automatic bid, all of which means Saturday's matchup with Butler is pressure-packed on both sides, regardless of what Ronald Nored would like us to believe.