Parrish: East | Midwest | South | West | Final Four Picks
NEW YORK -- One of the best things about working for CBS -- besides the fame and riches, of course -- is that the committee has to fax the NCAA tournament bracket to us a little ahead of time so that the production people can build graphics and stuff for the Selection Show (exclusively on CBS!).
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| Arizona's Russ Pennell is a good guy, but an NCAA tournament berth? Really? (US Presswire) |
• Breakdowns: East | Midwest | South | West | Bracket Science | Ratto
The following is a re-enactment from Sunday night.
Me: Is the bracket here yet?
Producer: Yeah, right there.
Me: Let me see it.
(Nine seconds later)
Me: What is Arizona doing here?
Seriously, what is Arizona doing here?
Let me be clear: The Russ Pennell story is nice, and Arizona is certainly capable of advancing; I'm pretty sure I'll pick the Wildcats over Utah in the first round. But based on Arizona's entire body of work -- from November to March, as chairman Mike Slive told us many times was important -- I can't see how the Wildcats deserved an at-large bid, particularly when the bubble shrank because of Cleveland State, Mississippi State and Southern California earning automatic bids.
Just for giggles, let's compare Arizona to Creighton.
-- Arizona --
RPI: 62
Record vs. top 50: 6-10
Record vs. top 100: 8-12
-- Creighton --
RPI: 40
Record vs. top 50: 2-2
Record vs. top 100: 9-5
The argument people are making for Arizona is that it "beat some people." Well, yeah. It's Arizona, a national brand and member of the Pac-10, which allows it to schedule in a way where there are plenty of opportunities to beat some people. So the Wildcats beat some people -- like Kansas, Washington, Gonzaga and UCLA. But they nearly lost twice as many top 50 games as they won, and they are 5-9 against other teams in this NCAA tournament field.
Meantime, Creighton was .500 against the top 50, 2-1 against other teams in this field. So it appears the only thing that hurt Creighton is that it didn't have as many opportunities as Arizona to beat some people, and if that's what kept Creighton out of the field then something is wrong with the process, because that's a little too BCS-ish for my tastes.
Anyway, here's a strange look at the entire bracket (or at least some of it) ...
When the RPI doesn't matter: I lead with this category every Selection Sunday, and it never disappoints. What you need to know is that no BCS-affiliated school with a top 50 RPI was omitted this season, but six non-BCS-affiliated schools with top 50 RPIs were -- specifically San Diego State (34), Creighton (40), UAB (46), Illinois State (47), Saint Mary's (48) and Niagara (49). What that means is that for the fifth consecutive season, the three best RPIs omitted from the field belonged to non-BCS affiliated schools, which means a good RPI can save you if you're from a power conference, but it won't do much to help you if you're not.
Here's the rundown (for all you talk show hosts out there):
Top RPIs left out of the NCAA tournament
2009: San Diego State (34), Creighton (40), UAB (46)
2008: Dayton (32), Illinois State (33), UMass (42)
2007: Air Force (30), Missouri State (36), Bradley (38)
2006: Missouri State (21), Hofstra (30), Creighton (39)
2005: Miami-Ohio (39), Wichita State (45), Buffalo (46)
Three random things I noticed about the bracket
1. Being the No. 1 overall seed has at least one disadvantage: Congratulations, Louisville. Your reward for winning the Big East regular-season title and Big East tournament title is a possible second-round game against Ohio State in ... Dayton! As in, Dayton, Ohio. Yuck. But, in fairness, Louisville is only about 155 miles from Dayton (OSU is 75). So I'm sure a slew of Cardinals fans will make the trip, but I'm not sure it's right to make them fight with Ohio State fans for tickets.
2. UCLA vs. VCU should be fun: Can Virginia Commonwealth really bounce Duke and UCLA in the first round of the NCAA tournament in a span of three years? Yes, it's possible, particularly with Eric Maynor still around. Of course, if VCU needs a late shot to win, Maynor will be guarded this time by Darren Collison, which is a little different than being guarded by Jon Scheyer. But whatever. We'll worry about that if it comes to that.
3. Does Mike Anderson remember how to beat Memphis? You've probably heard all about Memphis' 61-game winning streak against Conference USA opponents, about how the Tigers haven't lost to a C-USA school since March 6, 2006. But do you know the last C-USA coach to beat John Calipari? It was UAB's Mike Anderson, who is now Missouri's Mike Anderson, and he could coach against Calipari if the Missouri Tigers and Memphis Tigers each win their first two games.
Ranking the regions from toughest to easiest
1. Midwest: The Big East champions (No. 1 Louisville) are here, as are the Big Ten champs (No. 2 Michigan State), Big 12 champs (No. 3 Kansas), Mountain West Conference tournament champs (No. 5 Utah), Pac-10 tournament champs (No. 10 Southern California) -- plus a team that beat North Carolina and Duke during the regular season (No. 7 Boston College), a team that was ranked No. 1 in the country in January (No. 4 Wake Forest) and a team with two NBA Draft picks (No. 12 Arizona).
2. West: No. 1 Connecticut and No. 2 Memphis are ranked first and third (but in opposite order) at KenPom.com, where No. 3 Missouri is 10th. Additionally, the West has the Pac-10 champions (No. 4 Washington), the Big Ten tournament winner (Purdue) and a team that used to be really good until its point guard broke his foot (No. 6 Marquette).
3. South: No. 1 North Carolina shouldn't have a problem making the Elite Eight, that is unless No. 4 Gonzaga does something it hasn't done all season, i.e., beat a team with a top 15 RPI. In the bottom half, Jonny Flynn's legs could fall off at any moment, which would leave No. 3 Syracuse without a competent point guard. And though Blake Griffin is awesome, the reality is that No. 2 Oklahoma has dropped four of its past six games.
4. East: Anything but a regional final between No. 1 Pittsburgh and No. 2 Duke would be a surprise (although Pitt did lose at No. 3 Villanova this season). No. 5 Florida State can't feel good about its chances at a Final Four considering it already lost to No. 1 Pitt and No. 2 Duke (three times). Speaking of Duke, it beat No. 4 Xavier by 18 points back in December. Speaking of No. 4 Xavier, it's lost two of its past three games (to Richmond and Temple, no less).
Where the committee messed up
Seeded too low: No. 9 Butler (24 RPI, 2-1 against the top 50).
Seeded too high: No. 7 Boston College (60 RPI, 4-5 against the top 50).
Six teams that can win it all
1. North Carolina
2. Connecticut
3. Louisville
4. Pittsburgh
5. Wake Forest
6. Oklahoma
Two double-digit seeds that might just make the Sweet 16
1. Southern California (No. 10 in the Midwest)
2. Michigan (No. 10 in the South)
My Final Four
• Wake Forest vs. Connecticut
• North Carolina vs. Duke
My National Championship Game
• Connecticut vs. North Carolina
My National Champion
• North Carolina
Final thought
It's hilarious that Arizona and Arizona State are headed to Miami.
I guess the Dominican Republic wasn't available.
Either way, the good news is that Arizona State plays during the day and Arizona plays at night, meaning it's possible Arizona coach Pennell could get to the arena early, throw a headset on and provide color commentary for the Sun Devils like he did last season. Remember, Pennell was actually the analyst for ASU radio broadcasts last season before taking a job as an assistant under Lute Olson at Arizona, which led to Pennell taking over on an interim basis once Olson retired.
I know I've asked this before, but it bears repeating: Is anybody having a stranger year than Russ Pennell?
I mean, anybody?
