Without great point guard, Duke, Texas won't compete for national title
East Regional | Edge: Duke-Texas
GREENSBORO, N.C. -- At some point late Saturday before a partisan crowd here in ACC land, 10 basketball players will walk onto the court, shake hands and tip-off a game that will launch either Texas or Duke into the Sweet 16. Of those 10 players, exactly zero are what anybody would call a "very good" or "great" point guard, which begs the question: How did this happen?
Understand, neither Duke nor Texas have problems recruiting.
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| Sophomore Nolan Smith is a solid player but not an NBA point guard. (US Presswire) |
And yet, somehow, those classes haven't featured great point guards in recent years -- which is the main reason Duke might not win a national title anytime soon, the main reason Texas finished tied for fourth in the Big 12. Simply put, you can do a lot of nice things without a great point guard, but competing for a national title isn't usually one of them.
Just look at the past four national title games for proof.
(Let me know if you spot a trend.)
• 2008: Kansas (Mario Chalmers) vs. Memphis (Derrick Rose)
• 2007: Florida (Taurean Green) vs. Ohio State (Mike Conley)
• 2006: Florida (Green) vs. UCLA (Jordan Farmar)
• 2005: North Carolina (Raymond Felton) vs. Illinois (Deron Williams)
The common denominator: NBA point guards.
Your thoughts, Roy Williams?
"I'd say you've got to be really good [at that position]," said Williams, the North Carolina coach whose first and only title to date came with Felton playing point guard in 2005. "If you have a really good point guard, you have a better chance."
Honestly, this issue is more of an issue with Duke than Texas, because I don't get the sense that Texas expects to play for a national title this season. It would be wonderful, sure. But the Longhorns spent much of February on the bubble, and those close to the program seem to understand that replacing D.J. Augustin (last season's NBA point guard at Texas) with Dogus Balbay was never going to be the precursor to cutting nets on the first Monday in April.
Bottom line, Texas appears content.
Anything more this season would be great, but not necessarily expected.
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| Dogus Balbay had the tough task of replacing D.J. Augustin at Texas. (US Presswire) |
The goal there is always the same, i.e., to have a great regular season (check), to have a great ACC tournament (check), to earn a great seed in the NCAA tournament (check) and to make a run at a national title. For a lot of reasons, that last goal seems possible, which is why I picked the Blue Devils to make the Final Four, and Pittsburgh didn't do anything Friday to move me off that pick, if you're wondering. But this isn't about making the Final Four; this is about winning a title, and though it's technically only two additional wins, there is a huge difference between making a Final Four and winning a title.
Schools can make Final Fours will all sorts of rosters.
Remember, George Mason made a Final Four with a Colonial roster.
But the past eight rosters that played for a title each featured an NBA point guard, and so that's what Duke is up against as this NCAA tournament rolls along. Can the Blue Devils beat Texas without an NBA point guard? Of course. Can they make the Final Four without an NBA point guard? Absolutely. But when the subject turns to whether they can win a national title without an NBA point guard, it's difficult not to consider the past four seasons and conclude that the odds are stacked against them.
And here's the worst part: Duke didn't sign a point guard in this recruiting class.
Which means this exact same issue will surround this team next season.
Which means, well, I'll just turn it over to Duke's Gerald Henderson.
"We're going to have to do it differently," Henderson said. "I guess we'll have to break the mold."
