REBSKOFP Top 25 (and one): Kansas sitting pretty -- for now
By Gary Parrish | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow GaryKansas will be awesome next season.
Or not.
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| Cole Aldrich's return would help the Jayhawks improve on their 27-win season. (US Presswire) |
(That's REBSKOFP Top 25 (and one), for short.)
Again, I'm guessing on some of this stuff.
Some of my guesses will be wrong.
It happens.
But rest assured, I'll update the rankings after the deadline to enter the NBA Draft (April 26), and again shortly after the deadline to withdrawal (June 15). In other words, this is the first of three editions of the Top 25 (and one) that'll be published over the next six weeks, with each edition being more awesome than the previous.
It should be fun.
So let's get started ... with the Jayhawks.
(Let me answer four questions before we actually get started so I can save my inbox from some needless inquiries:
1. Why no Syracuse? Because I'll believe Jonny Flynn is returning when I see it.
2. Why no Oklahoma? Because I'll believe Willie Warren is returning when I see it.
3. Why no UCLA? Because I'll believe Jrue Holiday is returning when I see it.
4. Why no Wake Forest? Because I'll believe Jeff Teague and Al-Farouq Aminu are returning when I see it.)
1. Kansas
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins could enter the NBA Draft, but the word out of Kansas is that both are likely to return to college. If that happens, the Jayhawks will return every relevant player from a 27-win team that won the Big 12 while adding Thomas Robinson (ranked 20th in the Class of 2009), Elijah Johnson (ranked 25th in the Class of 2009) Jeff Withey (ranked 35th in the Class of 2008) and perhaps McDonald's All-American Xavier Henry (ranked fourth in the Class of 2009). That's a serious roster, folks. The kind that could win a second title in three years.
2. Michigan State
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Tom Izzo will have the core of the team he just took to the national title game pretty much intact as long as Kalin Lucas returns. Sure, the loss of Goran Suton will hurt. But five of the other top six scorers should be back, including a healthy Delvon Roe, which could have Izzo coaching in his sixth Final Four in a span of 12 seasons.
3. North Carolina
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington
Comment: Ed Davis has said he'll remain in college, and I believe him (for now). That means the Tar Heels should have a frontcourt rotation of Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and newcomer John Henson (ranked third in the Class of 2009) to go with an able-bodied Marcus Ginyard on the wing. I don't think UNC will land Class of 2009 star John Wall. But if Roy Williams somehow pulled that off he might be the favorite to win a third title in six seasons.
4. Villanova
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Reggie Redding and a top five recruiting class featuring Dominic Cheek (ranked 15th in the Class of 2009) could have the Wildcats as the favorite in the Big East. The only double-digit scorer missing will be Dante Cunningham.
5. Duke
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Gerald Henderson
Comment: The anti-Duke crowd will rip this ranking, but where should a 30-win team returning four starters be ranked? The Blue Devils will likely lose Henderson, but sources believe Kyle Singer will return. They'll add Ryan Kelly (ranked 11th in the Class of 2009) and Mason Plumlee (ranked 19th in the Class of 2009) to the frontcourt and again battle UNC for the ACC title.
6. Connecticut
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Hasheem Thabeet
Comment: Considering Nate Miles had an agent, it seems unlikely that Thabeet wouldn't already have one, too. The guy is a guaranteed lottery pick, so he'll be gone. But as long as Stanley Robinson returns to team with Kemba Walker, Jerome Dyson and newcomer Alex Oriakhi (ranked 14th in the Class of 2009), the Huskies should be good enough to operate near the top of the Big East again.
7. Purdue
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Every relevant player should return from a 27-win team, including E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel. This could be the team that gets Matt Painter to the Final Four.
8. Texas
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: DraftExpress.com is reporting that Damion James is learning toward returning to school, and that's what this ranking is based upon. The Longhorns could make a deep run with James, Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Justin Mason, Varez Ward and Dogus Balbay providing a core to go with a top five recruiting class led by Avery Bradley (ranked 10th in the Class of 2009) and Jordan Hamilton (ranked 13th in the Class of 2009).
9. Clemson
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Three of the top four scorers are expected back, including possible ACC Player of the Year Trevor Booker. With McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings (ranked 23rd in the Class of 2009) on board, it appears Oliver Purnell will be in good shape to advance the Tigers in the NCAA tournament.
10. Kentucky
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Jodie Meeks
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Patrick Patterson
Comment: Kentucky is by far the hardest team to figure because it remains unclear what Meeks and Patterson will do, although you can safely assume both will test the water, at least. My guess is that Meeks returns, Patterson goes, and that John Calipari adds newcomers DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall to the equation. Under this scenario, UK could start three future pros (Wall, Meeks and Cousins) and challenge for the SEC title. If Patterson were to remain in school, then the Wildcats would become a Final Four threat. So this is a school that could ultimately be ranked in the top five or unranked depending on how the next few weeks unfold, which is why Calipari will be recruiting and selling like crazy over the next month.
11. West Virginia
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: If Devan Ebanks stays in school -- and that's the assumption, for now -- then Bob Huggins will have his best West Virginia team to date, a stacked roster that'll benefit from the return of Joe Mazzulla. The only thing missing should be Alex Ruoff.
12. Butler
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: I hope you're not tired of Butler because the Bulldogs aren't going anywhere. There wasn't a single senior on last season's roster, meaning the Horizon League champions will be the overwhelming favorite to take another league title thanks to Matt Howard, Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack.
13. Washington
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: A backcourt of Isaiah Thomas and newcomer Abdul Gaddy (ranked ninth in the Class of 2009) could be among the most exciting duos in the nation, one that gives Lorenzo Romar a pair of competent ball-handlers. Quincy Pondexter averaged 12.1 points this season. Even if he tests the waters, he should be back for a senior season.
14. Xavier
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: As I type, Xavier is still searching for Sean Miller's replacement, although Chris Mack appears to be the favorite. If that's the way this goes, Mack should inherit a great situation as long as Derrick Brown doesn't jump to the NBA. Remember, Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford will be eligible. He averaged 9.7 points per game as a freshman in the Big Ten.
15. Louisville
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Earl Clark
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Earl Clark
Comment: Three of the top five scorers are back, including Samardo Samuels. So yeah, the losses of Clark and Terrence Williams will sting. But Rick Pitino's team should still be good, just like usual.
16. Minnesota
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Tubby Smith had a bad roster ranked much of the season. Now, his roster will be better thanks to a nice recruiting class highlighted by Royce White (ranked 30th in the Class of 2009), which means his team should be better, too.
17. Dayton
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Chris Wright and everybody else -- except Charles Little -- should return for the Flyers, who won 27 games this season. Thus, you can expect another Xavier-Dayton fight for the A-10 crown.
18. Tennessee
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Tyler Smith will almost certainly test the water, as he should. But right now he's projected by most to be a second-round pick, and if that's what Smith finds to be reality then the UT staff is confident the 6-foot-7 forward will return for his senior year, which would have Bruce Pearl returning his 21-win team completely intact. If, however, Smith stays in the draft, then the Vols will obviously drop.
19. Gonzaga
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Austin Daye will probably test the water, but he needs to return to school and add weight to his body, consistency to his game. Assuming he returns, Mark Few will have a core of Daye, Matt Bouldin, Steven Gray and Demetri Goodson, which should be plenty enough to win another WCC title.
20. Siena
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Kenny Hasbrouck is gone, but three double-digit scorers should return, including Ewin Ubiles. That will give Fran McCaffery a nice nucleus from a team that has advanced in each of the past two NCAA tournaments.
21. Ohio State
Who has announced a desire to leave early: B.J. Mullens
Who I think will ultimately leave early: B.J. Mullens
Comment: There's still a chance Evan Turner could enter the NBA Draft, but most expect he'll play a junior season. That would leave Thad Matta with everybody except Mullens back from a 22-win team, and the core will be joined by a healthy David Lighty, who missed all but seven games this season with a broken foot.
22. Michigan
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Nearly every relevant player from a team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament should be back. Unless John Beilein forgets how to coach -- and he will not -- then the Wolverines will make another NCAA tournament, at least.
23. California
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle are two of the best guards in the Pac-10. They've made Mike Montgomery's return to college basketball smoother than most expected.
24. Texas A&M
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Only Josh Carter will be missing from a 24-win team. But a solid recruiting class should ease the pain of that loss and help the Aggies return to the NCAA tournament for the third consecutive year under Mark Turgeon.
25. Illinois
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Bruce Weber has been trying to do more with less for a couple of years, and that's just hard to do. But an influx of talented newcomers should help the Illini, who return Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis from an NCAA tournament team.
26. Mississippi
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Every relevant player should return (except Malcolm White, who is transferring) from a team that was lucky to win seven SEC games considering three of the Rebels' top four guards suffered season-ending knee injuries. By next season, everybody should be healthy, including Chris Warren. He was averaging 19.6 points per game until he tore his ACL on Dec. 18 against Louisville.
Ten more to watch (in alphabetical order)
Baylor, Cincinnati, Creighton, Florida, Georgetown, Kansas State, Missouri, UNLV, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin
Parrish, Horowitz preview Big Ten matchup
