With Davis back, Tar Heels could be thinking back-to-back
On Sunday night, with one released statement, North Carolina officially became a 2010 Final Four contender.
"I am returning to North Carolina for my sophomore season and will not apply for the NBA Draft," said UNC forward Ed Davis, a likely lottery pick who decided he would rather spend the next year as an All-American instead of an NBA benchwarmer. "I'd like to play in the NBA someday, but my family and I don't think I'm ready to take that step. I'm glad this decision is behind me so I can focus on the rest of the school year and get ready to be a better player next season."
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| Ed Davis' return leaves UNC with a loaded frontcourt. (US Presswire) |
Sure, Davis averaged just 6.7 points and 6.6 rebounds as a freshman, but he did it in a supporting role while playing only 18.8 minutes per game in what should be an indication of how good North Carolina was this season. I mean, Roy Williams couldn't even find 19 minutes a game for a lottery pick, leading cynics to whisper that Williams was "holding Davis back" to try to ensure a sophomore season, a theory that might get more attention if NBA scouts were too stupid to recognize Davis' potential in 18.8 minutes per game. As it is, they are not (at least most of them aren't). So Williams could've played Davis 18.8 minutes per game or 30.3 minutes per game, and either way the guy would've been a lottery pick if he entered June's NBA Draft.
In other words, Williams didn't hold Davis back.
Davis is holding Davis back.
And I didn't just pull that 30.3-minutes-per-game number out of nowhere.
That's how many minutes Tyler Hansbrough averaged this season, so it's a good gauge to show what's possible if Davis simply gets a similar opportunity. For instance, if he executes at the exact same rate next season and averages the 30.3 minutes as Hansbrough, Davis will have 10.6 rebounds (compared to Hansbrough's 8.1) and 2.8 blocks (compared to Hansbrough's 0.4). Also worth noting is that Davis had a better field goal percentage than Hansbrough this season (.518 compared to .514), meaning Davis should score big points if he gets enough touches, which is a roundabout way for me to tell you to get ready for Davis to have a Cole Aldrich-like breakout next season.
Why?
Because it's coming, that's why.
• Parrish: Davis announces returnAnd so are the Tar Heels, long as I'm on the subject.
Understand that even without Hansbrough, North Carolina should have no less than four future NBA players rotating in the frontcourt -- namely Davis, Deon Thompson, Tyler Zeller and incoming freshman John Henson (ranked as the No. 1 power forward in the Class of 2009 by Scout.com). On the wing will be Marcus Ginyard, fully healed and ready to reclaim his starting role next to a list of guards featuring Larry Drew and incoming freshmen Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald, both of whom are top 65 recruits.
Now should the lack of star power and depth in the backcourt be a concern?
Yes, it should.
There's no denying I'd feel much better about the Tar Heels if they were about to sign John Wall, the top point guard in the Class of 2009. Wall is great, in case you didn't know, another one-and-done star DraftExpress.com currently projects as the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft. But the reality is that he's unlikely to end up at North Carolina for a year even though he's from North Carolina because when a prospect's AAU coach is a former licensed agent who has more influence than he probably should, well, things don't always unfold sensibly, and I'll have more on that another day, I promise.
But not today, because that's not my point today. My point today is that even with some questions in the backcourt, the Tar Heels' frontcourt will be loaded enough to have them competing for an ACC title, a third consecutive Final Four and -- yeah, I'll say it -- a second consecutive national championship despite the loss of their top four scorers (assuming Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington enter the NBA Draft, of course).
The core will be different, but the goal should be the same.
And that's why Sunday night was a big night for North Carolina.
Because Davis' decision to return now has UNC in position to repeat.
