It's a lock: Freshman will play big role on title team

I love freshmen.

Love them, love them, love them.

DeMarcus Cousins is one of four stellar freshmen for UK. (Getty Images)

Proof being how I almost always label the elite freshmen as the best players in the country and consistently rank teams in the preseason based largely on the quality of their newcomers. I named Greg Oden, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose first-team all-Americans before they ever enrolled, took the criticism for doing it and then bragged about my brilliance when they lived up to expectations. Those were good moments for me. But the one comeback critics -- I call them haters -- have commonly used against me is that though Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and a number of first-year players have been splendid since the NBA's age-limit started essentially forcing them to college in 2006, none have won a national title.

Which is true, of course.

In fact, none of the past three national champions -- i.e., the national champions in the era of the NBA age-limit -- have relied heavily on a freshman. The top freshman on Florida's 2007 title team was Marreese Speights, who averaged 4.1 points per game; the top freshman on Kansas' 2008 title team was Cole Aldrich, who averaged 2.8 points per game; and the top freshman on North Carolina's 2009 title team was Ed Davis, who averaged 6.7 points per game. So while there is no denying that freshmen have dominated headlines each of the past three seasons -- particularly Durant and Beasley, both of whom were named CBSSports.com's National Player of the Year -- it is fair to point out that they have not dominated on the first Monday in April.

But this is the season that changes.

Mark it down.

Book it.

Or do whatever it is you do -- bookmark it? -- when you want to recall something at a later date to see if somebody was right or wrong, because, trust me, I'm going to be right. A freshman will play a key role for the 2010 national champion, guaranteed, if only because this is a season where five of the top six teams in the preseason Top 25 (and one) figure to rely heavily on a freshman (or two).

No. 1 Kansas has Xavier Henry.

No. 2 Kentucky has John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton.

No. 4 North Carolina has John Henson.

No. 5 Texas has Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton.

No. 6 Villanova has Mouphtauo Yarou and Dominic Cheek.

The key stat to remember is that six of the top nine prospects in Scout.com's final Class of 2009 rankings -- No. 2 Wall, No. 3 Cousins, No. 4 Henson, No. 5 Bradley, No. 6 Henry and No. 9 Yarou -- are enrolled at schools ranked among the top six in the preseason Top 25 (and one), meaning this season should offer the perfect combination of elite freshmen playing for elite teams. The only school that seems capable of spoiling my prediction is Michigan State, which is ranked third in the preseason Top 25 (and one) and devoid of an elite freshman. But I'm willing to take my chances with Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas and Villanova -- and perhaps even with Duke (Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee) or Connecticut (Alex Oriaki) -- and predict that one of the top eight schools in the preseason Top 25 (and one) other than Tom Izzo's Spartans will win the national title and rely heavily on a freshman to do it.

It'll be One Shining Moment with a one-and-done star.

So mark it down.

Book it.

Bookmark it.

And we'll revisit the subject in April.