ACC preview: Reloaded Heels hold edge on blue blood brothers

The ACC media poll named North Carolina and Duke co-favorites to win the league.

But we don't do co-favorites around here.

Just a single favorite.

And the Tar Heels are the favorite, as well they should be, although I'm concerned about the point guard situation. Too often, the talk is about how North Carolina will replace Tyler Hansbrough, but that won't be a problem with Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and Deon Thompson up front. The problem is replacing Ty Lawson, who was the true MVP of that national championship team, and I'm not convinced Larry Drew is the answer. Time will tell, I guess. But I've never envisioned Drew as the type of guy who should be starting at a place like North Carolina. He's good, no question. But UNC point guards are typically better than good, and if he's not at least solid then Roy Williams might spend December experimenting with various options.

Either way, UNC is still the pick.

Duke is second.

Let's take a look.

(Schools listed in predicted order of finish)

1. North Carolina

The Tar Heels lost the top four scorers from their national championship team, among them a three-year point guard (Lawson) and a four-year post player (Hansbrough). So this should be a rebuilding year at UNC -- except there's no such thing for Williams. He's a big-time coach at a big-time school who still outworks people, which is rare. The byproduct is a roster that's loaded and headlined by Davis, John Henson and Marcus Ginyard, the last of whom took a medical redshirt last season but is now back healthy and ready to add a defensive presence on the wing. Another league title is likely. Another Final Four is possible.

2. Duke

The Blue Devils still have some of the issues (athleticism in the backcourt being the most obvious) that have prevented them from making the Final Four since 2004, but this will be a good team regardless. Sure, Duke will miss Elliot Williams (transferred to Memphis, had 24 points for the Tigers in Tuesday's exhibition) and Gerald Henderson (averaged a team-best 16.5 points last season); those were probably the two most athletic guys on the roster. But a core of Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer should ensure the Blue Devils challenge UNC for the ACC title, just like they usually do.

Quick facts
Defending regular-season champion: North Carolina
Defending tournament champion: Duke
Top returning scorer: Malcolm Delaney (Virginia Tech), 18.1 ppg
Top returning rebounder: Trevor Booker (Clemson), 9.7 rpg
Predicted Finish
Team	Postseason
1. North Carolina	NCAA
2. Duke	NCAA
3. Clemson	NCAA
4. Georgia Tech	NCAA
5. Maryland	NCAA
6. Wake Forest	NCAA
7. Florida State	NIT/CBI
8. Virginia Tech	NIT/CBI
9. Boston College	NIT/CBI
10. Miami	none
11. Virginia	none
12. North Carolina State	none
Accolades
First team
G - Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech
G - Greivis Vasquez, Maryland
F - Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
F - Kyle Singler, Duke
F - Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
Second team
G - Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech
G - Jon Scheyer, Duke
G - Sylven Landesberg, Virginia
F - Ed Davis, North Carolina
F - Trevor Booker, Clemson
Player of the year
Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest
Newcomer of the year
Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
Breakthrough player
Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech
Coach on the hot seat
Sidney Lowe, N.C. State
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3. Clemson

Trevor Booker averaged 15.3 points and 9.7 rebounds last season and established himself as one of college basketball's dominant big men. He's relentless and physical and the player who will lead Oliver Purnell to his first NCAA tournament victory in March. Joining Booker up front is Milton Jennings, a 6-9 McDonald's All-American who can play around the rim or step away and make a jumper. So while Terrence Oglesby's decision to leave school early and play professionally overseas wasn't a bonus, it's not the type of thing that will keep Clemson from finishing in the top third of the ACC. Clemson made up for that loss late when it enrolled Noel Johnson, a former USC recruit who was released from his letter of intent when Tim Floyd resigned.

4. Georgia Tech

Paul Hewitt might have my favorite roster in the ACC. The backcourt is loaded with Iman Shumpert and Mfon Udofia, the latter of whom is an elite recruit who was reportedly brilliant in a weekend scrimmage against Western Kentucky. Up front are Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors, both of whom are future pros, perhaps as soon as next season, which is why Hewitt has to capitalize on the talent assembled right now. Simply put, there is no excuse for losing with this roster. It's good enough to compete with Duke and North Carolina, and advance deep into the NCAA tournament.

5. Maryland

It wasn't too long ago that I was numbering Gary Williams' days at Maryland, but now here he is, still at the Comcast Center, about to go to his third NCAA tournament in four years. His team will be led by Greivis Vasquez, the 6-6 senior who returned to college after averaging 17.5 points and 5.0 assists last season. The only thing missing from the team that lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament is Dave Neal, and that shouldn't make a big difference. Worth noting is that sophomore Sean Mosley got 14 points in Tuesday's exhibition. That suggests he could double his scoring average of 5.3 points from last season.

6. Wake Forest

I selected Al-Farouq Aminu as the preseason ACC Player of the Year because, quite simply, I just think he's going to be awesome. As I've explained many times, the 6-9 forward averaged 12.9 points and 8.2 rebounds last season despite not being a focal point of the offense and finishing third on the team in shots attempted. Now that Jeff Teague and James Johnson are gone, Aminu will shine. I'm not sure the Demon Deacons will win as many games, mind you. But I won't be surprised if Aminu averages something like 20 and 12.

7. Florida State

Losing Toney Douglas and his 21.5 points per game is tough, and it's naïve to pretend there's a way to offset it. Still, this FSU team will be interesting, because Solomon Alabi should progress and improve on the 8.4 points and 5.6 rebounds he averaged last season; Alabi got 16 points and six assists in an exhibition win over Delta State. And then there's Michael Snaer, the freshman from California who averaged 28.1 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists as a senior in high school. If he meets expectations, FSU could return to the NCAA tournament.

8. Virginia Tech

Two of Virginia Tech's big three -- specifically Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen -- are back from a team that won 19 games. The absent piece from the trio is A.D. Vassallo, who averaged a team-best 19.1 points last season. He'll be missed. And it doesn't help Seth Greenberg that his best recruit, Cadarian Raines, is recovering from a broken foot. The 6-9 forward is due back in December, but how much he'll help after missing all this time remains unclear.

9. Boston College

Four starters are back for Boston College, but overcoming the loss of Tyrese Rice is an impossible task. The scoring guard -- who seemed to play 14 seasons in the ACC -- averaged 16.9 points as a senior and established himself as one of the most dangerous players in the country in the sense that he could get hot and carry the Eagles to wins (last season's victories over Duke and North Carolina come to mind). Rice's departure puts more pressure on Rakim Sanders to develop into one of the better players in the league. It'll be crucial in determining whether BC is successful.

10. Miami

Frank Haith's sixth season looks to be a rebuilding year, and he's likely to miss the NCAA tournament for the fifth time at Miami despite the addition of heralded recruit Durand Scott. The New York guard is super-talented and ready to make an immediate impact. But he can't possibly make up for the loss of Jack McClinton, who averaged 19.3 points last season. The good news: It would've been worse had Dwayne Collins remained in the NBA Draft; he's one of the better big men in the ACC, and his decision to return to Miami was good for the program. But Collins isn't surrounded by enough to lead the Hurricanes to a winning record in the league, not when you consider they went 7-9 in the ACC last season.

11. Virginia

The only new coach in the ACC is Tony Bennett, who parlayed three good years at Washington State into a big payday and better job. He inherits Sylven Landesberg, a sophomore guard who averaged 16.6 points last season. But let's be honest: The reason Bennett is at Virginia is because Dave Leitao let the program slip, and it's still in bad shape. Bennett will get a pass this season, but he has a lot of work to do before returning Virginia to the top third of the ACC.

12. North Carolina State

The Wolfpack were bad last season (6-10 in the ACC) and they should be worse this season. The top three scorers (Brandon Costner, Ben McCauley and Courtney Fells) are gone, and only one double-digit scorer (Tracy Smith) returns. So while it's true Sidney Lowe is recruiting well, it's unclear whether he'll ever actually benefit from it. If the losses pile like most suspect, he'll have to convince his administration that he deserves a fifth season and the opportunity to coach what is shaping up to be a great incoming class for the 2010-11 campaign. If Lowe survives, he really might turn things around. But the first thing he has to do is get through this season, and that's not going to be simple.