Why blue chippers should wait until spring to commit

What's the biggest story of this early signing period?

Harrison Barnes' pending decision, I guess.

It's coming Friday.

But what we'll likely be talking about when we close the period next Wednesday isn't who signed as much as who didn't sign -- namely Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Jelan Kendrick. All together, nine of the top 25 prospects at MaxPreps.com -- Knight, Jones and Kendrick are ranked No. 1, No. 12 and No. 16 -- are expected to remain uncommitted until the late period that runs from April 14 to May 19. And though I used to think this was silly, I'm now on board with the wait-and-see approach and believe it's the smartest path to the right situation.

Think about it: We don't ask coaches to commit to certain schools a year in advance, and we don't ask schools to commit to certain coaches a year in advance, either. If N.C. State wants to move Sidney Lowe in March, it can. If Craig Robinson wants to accept an offer to move to the Big East or Big Ten in April, he's allowed to do it. Meantime, current college players don't promise to leave school or remain in school until well after the season is complete.

So given how fluid the sport can be on lots of levels, what's the real benefit to committing early if you're a heralded recruit?

Yes, it can make your life simpler.

I get that.

If you're tired of the process, by all means, you had better commit and sign early. And if you absolutely know where you want to go regardless of the situation -- like Josh Smith felt about UCLA -- then there's no need to drag things out. In that case, commit away, I advise you. But if those things don't apply, it's probably wise to wait because all pictures are clearer in April than they are in November.

If you ask Eric Bledsoe, he'll tell you waiting until the late period to sign with Kentucky was the best decision he ever made. (US Presswire)

Imagine signing with Kansas because you're a center under the impression Cole Aldrich is leaving, but then he remains in school for some reason. Suddenly, you're a reserve. Imagine signing with Washington because you're a shooting guard yearning to play beside Abdul Gaddy, but then he has a great NCAA tournament and turns pro like Mike Conley once did. Suddenly, you're not where you thought you would be. So again, what's wrong with waiting?

And please don't say a recruit might miss on a scholarship if he waits.

That's almost never the case.

Perhaps North Carolina or UCLA will move on, some elite program like that. But any top 25 prospect who holds out until the late period will have roughly the same level of scholarship offers in April that he has now, and in most cases the offers will get better. Consider the case of Eric Bledsoe. This time last year, he was being recruited primarily by Ole Miss, UAB, South Florida and Alabama. By April, he was hearing from Duke, Florida, Memphis and Kentucky, and he ultimately chose John Calipari's Wildcats over Josh Pastner's Tigers.

Now Bledsoe is a freshman at UK.

He'll likely start beside John Wall and win an SEC title.

So did he cost himself by waiting late?

Not. One. Bit.

The elite prospects who wait this year won't cost themselves, either. If Ray McCallum (No. 15 at MaxPreps.com) waits until April, there will be plenty of scholarships available. Same goes for C.J. Leslie (No. 17 at MaxPreps.com) and Doron Lamb (No. 18 at MaxPreps.com). So while I understand this is a headache for college coaches and all my recruiting analyst friends, if you're waiting for me to condemn a kid for waiting late you're going to be waiting longer than it'll take Josh Selby (No. 14 at MaxPreps.com) to settle on a college.

It's an unconventional approach, I know.

But in this era of college basketball, it's the smart approach to take.