Projecting the Field: One-time title hopefuls hoping not to fall out
Updated 1/18/10
Purdue, North Carolina and Connecticut have really tanked in the past week and a half. All three are on losing streaks that have seen them slide down the bracket. Purdue went from a No. 1 seed and looking like a Final Four contender to looking more like a Big Ten also-ran. UNC lost at home to Georgia Tech for the first time in 14 years, which came after getting crushed at Clemson.
Connecticut almost fell off the bracket entirely. The Huskies solidified their Home Court Hero status with a loss at a real Big Ten also-ran, Michigan. UConn has just one win all season off its home floor -- vs. LSU in the NIT Tipoff in New York. The Michigan loss is the first that you would qualify as a bad one though, so they stay in the field for now. Their conference schedule eases up a bit, but they have a big non-conference home game with Texas this weekend.
Ohio State is showing that it is quite a different team with a healthy Evan Turner. Turner took over at the end of the Purdue game, leading the Buckeyes to a big comeback win on the road. They followed that up with a win over Wisconsin on Saturday. Three of their five losses came without Turner in the lineup, and that is a consideration for the committee.
Things continue to muddle in the Pac-10. Cal is still the only team in the bracket, sliding to a No. 13 seed after getting blown out at Washington. The Huskies would be closer to getting on the bracket if they could find a way to win off their home floor. That hasn't happened yet.
Every team in the league has either two or three conference losses. Only a game and a half separates first-place Arizona State (4-2) from the four-team tie at the bottom at 2-3.
There are really five No. 1 seeds at the moment, but only four spots for them. Villanova is right there with Syracuse and Kansas.
- Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
- The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. Right now, that includes some teams that have yet to play a conference game. It also includes Virginia, the last unbeaten team in ACC play, but which is also clearly not at-large quality. Later, when conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The Seeds
|  |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last four in: Connecticut, Mississippi, Mississippi State, St. Mary's
Last four out: Illinois, Marquette, Northwestern, Oklahoma State
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 6 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 2 | Mountain West | 3 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 5 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 9 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 4 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 5 |
Detailed Breakdown
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||||
| |
| |||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| | |||||||
