Projecting the Field: With Texas stumble, two step up
Updated Jan. 25
There's another change at the top this week as Texas falls from the overall No. 1 to a two seed with a pair of losses last week. Kentucky is the new overall No. 1, and Villanova moves up to the top line.
Connecticut handed Texas one of its losses, the Huskies' first win over a certain tournament team. The next hole in their résumé that needs filling is a win over someone competent away from home.
North Carolina almost fell off the bracket this week. The Tar Heels only played once, a loss at home to Wake Forest. They are also borderline Home Court Heroes. They did beat Ohio State (at full strength) on a neutral floor in November, but everything else is at home. Lately though, they have had trouble even defending the home floor. The loss to Wake, and a defeat the week before to Georgia Tech, both came at home.
As of this morning, UNC is 73rd in the RPI and has three of its next four on the road. I think it's safe to say this is a crucial stretch coming up for the Heels.
The failings of the Pac-10 and the middle of the Big Ten have opened the door for a potential banner year for the non-majors in terms of at-large bids. This bracket has seven teams outside the Big Six conferences in as at-large teams, and that's probably close to what we'll see in March. In 2006, eight non-majors received at-large bids, and one of them made it all the way to the Final Four. The A-10 and Mountain West figure to be the biggest benefactors.
- Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
- The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means that Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, can't play in the regional in Syracuse. But Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
- The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. It also includes Maryland, co-leader with Virginia in the ACC, but who is not at-large quality. Later, when conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The Seeds
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Last four in: Cincinnati, North Carolina, St. John's, St. Mary's
First four out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Richmond
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 7 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 2 | Mountain West | 3 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 4 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 9 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 4 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 5 |
Detailed Breakdown
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