Jerry Palm
Special to CBSSports.com

Projecting the Field: With Texas stumble, two step up

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Updated Jan. 25

There's another change at the top this week as Texas falls from the overall No. 1 to a two seed with a pair of losses last week. Kentucky is the new overall No. 1, and Villanova moves up to the top line.

Connecticut handed Texas one of its losses, the Huskies' first win over a certain tournament team. The next hole in their résumé that needs filling is a win over someone competent away from home.

North Carolina almost fell off the bracket this week. The Tar Heels only played once, a loss at home to Wake Forest. They are also borderline Home Court Heroes. They did beat Ohio State (at full strength) on a neutral floor in November, but everything else is at home. Lately though, they have had trouble even defending the home floor. The loss to Wake, and a defeat the week before to Georgia Tech, both came at home.

As of this morning, UNC is 73rd in the RPI and has three of its next four on the road. I think it's safe to say this is a crucial stretch coming up for the Heels.

The failings of the Pac-10 and the middle of the Big Ten have opened the door for a potential banner year for the non-majors in terms of at-large bids. This bracket has seven teams outside the Big Six conferences in as at-large teams, and that's probably close to what we'll see in March. In 2006, eight non-majors received at-large bids, and one of them made it all the way to the Final Four. The A-10 and Mountain West figure to be the biggest benefactors.

  • Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
  • The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means that Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, can't play in the regional in Syracuse. But Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
  • The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. It also includes Maryland, co-leader with Virginia in the ACC, but who is not at-large quality. Later, when conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.

The Seeds

Midwest
1
16
Kentucky
Central Michigan/
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Milwaukee
March 19, 21
St. Louis
March 26, 28
8
9
Butler
Northern Iowa
4
13
Pittsburgh
Murray State
New Orleans
March 18, 20
5
12
Georgia Tech
Cornell
6
11
Vanderbilt
Seton Hall
New Orleans
March 18, 20
3
14
Purdue
Sam Houston State
7
10
Clemson
Rhode Island
Milwaukee
March 19, 21
2
15
Kansas State
Coastal Carolina
South
Houston
March 26, 28
Oklahoma City
March 18, 20
Kansas
Lehigh
1
16
UAB
Connecticut
8
9
Spokane
March 19, 21
West Virginia
California
4
13
Wake Forest
St. Mary's
5
12
Providence
March 18, 20
UNLV
North Carolina
6
11
Georgetown
Weber State
3
14
Buffalo
March 19, 21
Missouri
Dayton
7
10
Michigan State
Maine
2
15
 
East
1
16
Villanova
Robert Morris
Providence
March 18, 20
Syracuse
March 25, 27
8
9
Oklahoma State
Florida
4
13
Wisconsin
College of Charleston
San Jose
March 18, 20
5
12
BYU
Siena
6
11
Mississippi
Cincinnati
Jacksonville
March 19, 21
3
14
Temple
Oakland
7
10
Baylor
William & Mary
Jacksonville
March 19, 21
2
15
Duke
Morgan State
West
Salt Lake City
March 25, 27
Buffalo
March 19, 21
Syracuse
Campbell
1
16
Texas A&M
Xavier
8
9
San Jose
March 18, 20
Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
4
13
Ohio State
Maryland
5
12
Spokane
March 19, 21
New Mexico
St. John's
6
11
Gonzaga
Pacific
3
14
Oklahoma City
March 18, 20
Old Dominion
Florida State
7
10
Texas
Arkansas State
2
15

Last four in: Cincinnati, North Carolina, St. John's, St. Mary's
First four out: Charlotte, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Richmond

Quick Breakdown

Conference Bids Conference Bids Conference Bids Conference Bids
ACC 7 Big 12 7 MEAC 1 Southern 1
America East 1 Big West 1 Missouri Valley 1 Southland 1
Atlantic Sun 1 Colonial 2 Mountain West 3 Summit 1
Atlantic 10 4 C-USA 1 Northeast 1 Sun Belt 1
Big East 9 Horizon 1 Ohio Valley 1 SWAC 1
Big Sky 1 Ivy 1 Pac-10 1 WAC 1
Big South 1 MAAC 1 Patriot 1 West Coast 2
Big Ten 4 MAC 1 SEC 5    

Detailed Breakdown

ACC (7)
Champion: Maryland
At-large: Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest
On the fence: Virginia Tech
 
AMERICA EAST (1)
Champion: Maine
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
ATLANTIC 10 (4)
Champion: Temple
At-large: Dayton, Rhode Island, Xavier
On the fence: Charlotte, Richmond
 
ATLANTIC SUN (1)
Champion: Campbell
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
BIG 12 (7)
Champion: Kansas
At-large: Baylor, Kansas St., Missouri, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas A&M
On the fence: Texas Tech
 
BIG EAST (9)
Champion: Villanova
At-large: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, St. John's, Syracuse, West Virginia
On the fence: Louisville, Notre Dame
 
BIG SKY (1)
Champion: Weber St.
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
BIG SOUTH (1)
Champion: Coastal Carolina
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
BIG TEN (4)
Champion: Michigan St.
At-large: Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin
On the fence: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern
 
BIG WEST (1)
Champion: Pacific
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
COLONIAL (2)
Champion: Old Dominion
At-large: William & Mary
On the fence: Northeastern, VCU
 
CONFERENCE USA (1)
Champion: UAB
At-large: None
On the fence: Tulsa
 
HORIZON (1)
Champion: Butler
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
IVY LEAGUE (1)
Champion: Cornell
At-large: None
On the fence: Harvard
 
MAAC (1)
Champion: Siena
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
MAC (1)
Champion: Central Michigan
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
MEAC (1)
Champion: Morgan St.
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
MISSOURI VALLEY (1)
Champion: Northern Iowa
At-large: None
On the fence: Wichita St.
 
MOUNTAIN WEST (3)
Champion: BYU
At-large: New Mexico, UNLV
On the fence: San Diego St.
 
NORTHEAST (1)
Champion: Robert Morris
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
OHIO VALLEY (1)
Champion: Murray St.
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
PAC-10 (1)
Champion: California
At-large: None
On the fence: Arizona St., Washington
 
PATRIOT LEAGUE (1)
Champion: Lehigh
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
SEC (5)
Champion: Kentucky
At-large: Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
On the fence: Mississippi St
 
SOUTHERN (1)
Champion: College of Charleston
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
SOUTHLAND (1)
Champion: Sam Houston
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
SUMMIT LEAGUE (1)
Champion: Oakland
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
SUN BELT (1)
Champion: Arkansas St.
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
SWAC (1)
Champion: Jackson St.
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
WAC (1)
Champion: Louisiana Tech
At-large: None
On the fence: None
 
WEST COAST (2)
Champion: Gonzaga
At-large: St. Mary's
On the fence: None
 
 
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