Projecting the Field: Mounting losses build mountain for Heels
Updated Feb. 1
The top four teams in the bracket have separated themselves a bit now from the rest of the field. Kansas is the overall No. 1, and Kentucky is the weakest of the four. The Wildcats have the worst loss of the bunch and have beaten only one team in the upper half of the bracket (Vandy on Saturday).
North Carolina has finally played its way out of the bracket, but it wasn't easy to leave them out. The last half a dozen teams in this bracket are not NCAA tournament caliber teams. You want to argue that they don't belong, I'm with you, but whoever you think belongs in the bracket instead is just as unworthy. Thank goodness we don't have a 96-team bracket. Half a dozen unworthy teams is plenty.
Purdue is ahead of Michigan State despite the fact that the Spartans have a three-game lead in the Big Ten. Teams are judged on their overall profiles, and conference record is not specifically a factor. When we get close to Selection Sunday, it may get a little consideration, but with unbalanced schedules, even then, it can be deceiving. In this case, Purdue has both better wins and better losses than the Spartans, and thus the higher seed. Purdue and Duke are the only teams with four top 25 RPI wins.
The committee will sometimes swap seeds just to get teams closer to home, and I did that too. Vanderbilt and New Mexico were swapped for that reason.
- Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
- The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means that Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, can't play in the regional in Syracuse. However, Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
- The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. That is why Cal is in the bracket instead of Arizona. Those two are tied for the Pac 10 lead and Arizona won the first head-to-head matchup, but Cal has the better RPI. Later, when conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The Seeds
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Last four in: Maryland, Mississippi St, Richmond, St. Mary's
First four out: Minnesota, North Carolina, South Carolina, Wichita St
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 6 | Big 12 | 7 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 2 | Mountain West | 3 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 6 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 7 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 4 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 6 |
Detailed Breakdown
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