Projecting the Field: Hokies fill resume hole as others lose control
By Jerry Palm | Special to CBSSports.com Follow JerryUpdated Feb. 8
The top four teams in the bracket have separated themselves a bit now from the rest of the field, although Villanova's loss at Georgetown has dropped it to the No. 4 overall seed.
Teams and locations don't always work out in a way that seems fair. If you are Syracuse you aren't happy about being shifted out of your region because you are a host, but you are even less happy to see that you are in Houston with a chance to meet No. 3 seed Texas.
Duke would no doubt be less than thrilled to get Florida in Jacksonville in a second-round game, although it's harder to feel sorry for the Dukies. They have had several in-state first-weekend pods over the years.
We're getting to the point in the season where some teams really need to start filling in some holes in their tournament profiles. If a team doesn't have a top 50 RPI win, it's not very likely to get in. Virginia Tech picked up its first top 50 win this week against Clemson. If a team can't win away from home (Washington), it definitely won't get in. If a team is below .500 against the RPI top 200 (Carolinas, North and South), it most likely won't get in.
One factor that used to get considered is how teams finished, but the committee has been de-emphasizing that in recent years. That helped Arizona get in last year despite a horrible finish to the season. So teams that are currently sliding, like Texas, may not see their seed affected by that as much as it would have been in the past. And, of course, hot teams won't get the bump they used to either.
• Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
• The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, can't play in the regional in Syracuse. However, Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
• The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. I am not predicting that team will win the league, it is just the current leader. Later, when conference tournament seeding is determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The Seeds
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Last four in: Clemson, Marquette, Old Dominion, St. Mary's
First four out: Cincinnati, South Florida, Texas Tech, Virginia
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 7 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 2 | Mountain West | 3 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 6 | C-USA | 2 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 6 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 4 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 5 |
Detailed Breakdown
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