Projecting the Field: Marquette separates itself from weak at-large class
By Jerry Palm | Special to CBSSports.com Follow JerryUpdated Feb. 21
Villanova's recent struggles have dropped the Wildcats from the top line while Purdue moves up to the fourth No. 1 seed. Duke is also in the hunt for the top line. Kansas and Kentucky look like locks for top seeds, but of the four teams vying for the other two spots, the Blue Devils have the best chance of winning out.
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This is one of the weakest at-large pools I can remember. The last nine teams in today's bracket all have holes in their tournament résumés that would normally be big red flags for the committee: weak nonconference schedules, lack of road wins, lack of quality wins, bad losses and poor records against good opposition. I only have a dozen teams listed as "on the fence" with three weeks to play, and with half of those, I'm just being polite.
These things have a way of working themselves out. By Selection Sunday, there are usually only one or two questionable teams, but I think this year might be different. Just think though -- we could be trying to find another 31 teams to put in here, if some people get their way. Yuck.
Marquette -- one of those teams I was talking about -- has managed to at least separate itself from the rest of the Big East mess in the conference standings. The Golden Eagles' win at Cincinnati puts them two games ahead of a five-car pileup of fence sitters.
- Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
- The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means that Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, cannot play in the regional in Syracuse. However, Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
- The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. I am not predicting that team will win the league, it is just the current leader. Later, when conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The Seeds
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Last four in: Charlotte, Illinois, Marquette, San Diego State
First four out: Connecticut, Mississippi, Seton Hall, UAB
Quick Breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 7 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 1 | Mountain West | 4 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 6 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 7 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 5 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 4 |
Detailed Breakdown
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