Projecting the Field: No more 'What have you done for me lately?'
Updated March 4
Over the years, the criteria the committee considers have been tweaked, and sometimes overhauled. About five years ago, they came out with a new version of the RPI, which would have to be considered an overhaul. This year's tweak is that the committee has de-emphasized how teams finish the season.
In the past, the committee has tracked a team's record in its last 10 games. A few years ago, as schedules got longer, that changed to the last 12 games. This year, though, the committee has eliminated that piece of information and no longer consider it to be important.
The reason: The committee wants to make sure it is treating the entire body of work more holistically. It feels that wins in November should count as much as wins in February, etc. Also, there is no data to suggest that teams that finish the season strongly will do well in the tournament.
So, teams like Texas, which has all of its losses in the last six weeks, theoretically wouldn't be specifically punished for that while a team like Maryland, which picked up most of its losses early, wouldn't be overly rewarded.
That doesn't mean individual committee members can't consider how a team finishes. It's still a subjective process, so anything relevant to this season is in play.
Notes
• Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." I am not predicting how teams will finish the season. For those of you who followed this space last year, that is a change.
• The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of the other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school. That means that Syracuse, even if it ends up the overall No. 1 seed, can't play in the regional in Syracuse. However, Gonzaga can play in Spokane because the games are not on its home floor and it is not the host school.
• The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. I am not predicting that team will win the league. It is just the current leader. As conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
The seeds
|  |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last four in: Mississippi, Notre Dame, San Diego State, Virginia Tech
First four out: Connecticut, Charlotte, Illinois, Mississippi State
Quick breakdown
| Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids | Conference | Bids |
| ACC | 7 | Big 12 | 7 | MEAC | 1 | Southern | 1 |
| America East | 1 | Big West | 1 | Missouri Valley | 1 | Southland | 1 |
| Atlantic Sun | 1 | Colonial | 1 | Mountain West | 4 | Summit | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | 5 | C-USA | 1 | Northeast | 1 | Sun Belt | 1 |
| Big East | 8 | Horizon | 1 | Ohio Valley | 1 | SWAC | 1 |
| Big Sky | 1 | Ivy | 1 | Pac-10 | 1 | WAC | 1 |
| Big South | 1 | MAAC | 1 | Patriot | 1 | West Coast | 2 |
| Big Ten | 4 | MAC | 1 | SEC | 5 |
Detailed breakdown
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| |
| ||||||||||||
| | |||||||
