Predicting the 2011 NCAA tournament field

Updated Jan. 25, 2011

The format for the 2011 NCAA tournament gives us 37 at-large teams instead of 34, and four play-in games.

More Bracketology

Usually, we have a pretty good idea who at least one or two of the No. 1 seeds are going to be in the final bracket on Selection Sunday. This year, that's not really the case. Palm's Blog >>

Related links

Breaking down the bracket (Jan. 25) At-large exam: Duquesne vs. Oklahoma State All the latest polls | CBSSports.com RPI

Two of the "First Four" games will feature the four lowest-seeded teams in the field, and the other two will have the four lowest-rated at-large teams. The four lowest-rated teams will play to become 16-seeds, as they have in the past. The four at-large teams will play for a seed in the lower part of the bracket, wherever the last seeds would fit. Most of the time, it will likely fall into the 12- or 13-seed range.

Bracket projections are always based on "as if the tournament started today." I am not predicting how teams will finish the season.

The committee tries to place teams as close to home as possible without violating any of their other bracket rules (like conference separation). However, teams cannot play on their home floors or where they are the host school.

The conference "champion" is the team with the fewest conference losses, with ties broken by RPI. I am not predicting that team will win the league. It is just the current leader. As conference tournament seeding gets determined, the leader will be the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.

Predicted Bracket

First Four
East			Southeast			Southwest			West
16 16	Jackson State Lamar		16 16	Long Beach Bethune Cookman		11 11	Washington State Oklahoma State		12 12	Miami (FL) Gonzaga

East 1 16 Ohio State First Four Cleveland March 18, 20 Newark March 25, 27 8 9 St. John's Virginia Tech 5 12 Cincinnati Cleveland State Tampa March 17, 19 4 13 Missouri VCU 6 11 Illinois Kansas State Chicago March 18, 20 3 14 Notre Dame Coastal Carolina 7 10 North Carolina Arizona Washington, DC March 17, 19 2 15 Villanova Fairfield

West Anaheim March 24, 26 Tucson March 17, 19 San Diego State Austin Peay 1 16 Florida State Tennessee 8 9 Tucson March 17, 19 Georgetown First Four 5 12 Wisconsin Utah State 4 13 Charlotte March 18, 20 Vanderbilt UCLA 6 11 Syracuse Bucknell 3 14 Tulsa March 18, 20 Michigan State Marquette 7 10 Kansas Maine 2 15

Final Four: Houston (April 2, 4)

Southwest 1 16 Duke Long Island Charlotte March 18, 20 San Antonio March 25, 27 8 9 UNLV Georgia 5 12 West Virginia Missouri State Denver March 17, 19 4 13 Texas A&M Coll of Charleston 6 11 Florida First Four Chicago March 18, 20 3 14 Purdue Belmont 7 10 St. Mary's Temple Cleveland March 18, 20 2 15 Pittsburgh Ball State

Southeast New Orleans March 24, 26 Washington, DC March 17, 19 Connecticut First Four 1 16 Boston College Old Dominion 8 9 Tampa March 17, 19 Minnesota Harvard 5 12 Kentucky Oakland 4 13 Denver March 17, 19 Washington Memphis 6 11 BYU Florida Atlantic 3 14 Tulsa March 18, 20 Louisville Xavier 7 10 Texas Northern Colorado 2 15

Last four in: Gonzaga, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State, Washington State
First four out: Butler, Colorado State, Dayton, Richmond

Quick Breakdown
Conference	Bids	Conference	Bids	Conference	Bids	Conference	Bids
ACC	6	Big 12	6	MEAC	1	Southern	1
America East	1	Big West	1	Missouri Valley	1	Southland	1
Atlantic Sun	1	Colonial	2	Mountain West	3	Summit	1
Atlantic 10	2	C-USA	1	Northeast	1	Sun Belt	1
Big East	11	Horizon	1	Ohio Valley	1	SWAC	1
Big Sky	1	Ivy	1	Pac-10	4	WAC	1
Big South	1	MAAC	1	Patriot	1	West Coast	2
Big Ten	6	MAC	1	SEC	5

Detailed Breakdown

ACC (6) Projected champ: Duke At-large: Boston College, Florida State, Miami (FL), North Carolina, Virginia Tech On the fence: Clemson

AMERICA EAST (1) Projected champ: Maine At-large: None On the fence: None

ATLANTIC SUN (1) Projected champ: Belmont At-large: None On the fence: None

ATLANTIC 10 (2) Projected champ: Xavier At-large: Temple On the fence: Dayton, Richmond

BIG EAST (11) Projected champ: Pittsburgh At-large: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, St. John's, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia On the fence: None

BIG SKY (1) Projected champ: Northern Colorado At-large: None On the fence: None

BIG SOUTH (1) Projected champ: Coastal Carolina At-large: None On the fence: None

BIG TEN (6) Projected champ: Ohio State At-large: Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin On the fence: None

BIG 12 (6) Projected champ: Texas At-large: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M On the fence: None

BIG WEST (1) Projected champ: Long Beach At-large: None On the fence: None

COLONIAL (2) Projected champ: VCU At-large: Old Dominion On the fence: Drexel, George Mason

C-USA (1) Projected champ: Memphis At-large: None On the fence: UCF

HORIZON (1) Projected champ: Cleveland State At-large: None On the fence: Butler

IVY (1) Projected champ: Harvard At-large: None On the fence: None

MAAC (1) Projected champ: Fairfield At-large: None On the fence: None

MAC (1) Projected champ: Ball State At-large: None On the fence: None

MEAC (1) Projected champ: Bethune Cookman At-large: None On the fence: None

MISSOURI VALLEY (1) Projected champ: Missouri State At-large: None On the fence: None

MOUNTAIN WEST (3) Projected champ: BYU At-large: San Diego State, UNLV On the fence: Colorado State

NORTHEAST (1) Projected champ: Long Island At-large: None On the fence: None

OHIO VALLEY (1) Projected champ: Austin Peay At-large: None On the fence: None

PAC-10 (4) Projected champ: Washington At-large: Arizona, UCLA, Washington State On the fence: None

PATRIOT (1) Projected champ: Bucknell At-large: None On the fence: None

SEC (5) Projected champ: Florida At-large: Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt On the fence: South Carolina

SOUTHERN (1) Projected champ: Coll of Charleston At-large: None On the fence: None

SOUTHLAND (1) Projected champ: Lamar At-large: None On the fence: None

SUMMIT (1) Projected champ: Oakland At-large: None On the fence: None

SUN BELT (1) Projected champ: Florida Atlantic At-large: None On the fence: None

SWAC (1) Projected champ: Jackson State At-large: None On the fence: None

WAC (1) Projected champ: Utah State At-large: None On the fence: None

WEST COAST (2) Projected champ: St. Mary's At-large: Gonzaga On the fence: None