Wetzel: Move wouldn't make sense, just dollars
There are so many reasons why the Atlantic Coast Conference won't steal Miami, Boston College and Syracuse from the Big East and expand to 12 teams.
The pro-expansion faction won't be able to get the seven votes at the ACC meetings. BC and Syracuse will come to their senses, realize a move would be bad for business and stick to its roots. The ACC will be satisfied building in steps and grab only Miami.
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| Mike Tranghese's Big East seems to be in for a big overhaul. (AP) |
If it does, brace yourself for a seismic shift in the landscape of college athletics that could affect schools from coast to coast. Basically, unless your favorite team is a member of the Pac-10, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC or Ivy League, this could matter to you.
So while the future is unpredictable, especially as each succeeding domino falls and brings us further from the present, there is no better time for a speculative parlor game of what if ...
So we called up a host of college administrators, coaches, former commissioners, media and various insiders and promised anonymity. We talked, debated and played Rubik's Cube with the ultimate Fantasy League game. None of it may happen. Some of it may happen.
It's all a guess based on assumption based on perception. So take it for what it's worth.
But if it goes down, when it comes to what happens next and then after that, there is the consensus purely speculative buzz developing.
And it centers on two imperative questions.
- Can Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese keep his already awkward membership together by bringing in the perfect replacement schools for BC, Miami and Syracuse? If he can, the ripples won't spread too far. If he can't, look out.
- What becomes of the Big East's slot in the Bowl Coalition Series? If there is no Big East football, will another league get it? Can some former Big East members make a claim to it? Or would the remaining five BCS leagues play musical chairs and pull the slot out of the mix, assuring bigger revenue slices for them?
Either way, it all would start in Providence, R.I., home of the Big East, which would suddenly be without three key members and at a long-awaited crossroads.
Tranghese's challenge would be keeping his league from breaking apart. The fault lines are obvious.
On one side are Connecticut, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and West Virginia , which play football and basketball. Temple, which plays Big East football but is an Atlantic 10 basketball member, is with this group.
One the other are Georgetown, St. John's, Seton Hall, Providence and Villanova, all Catholic schools that only play basketball. Notre Dame, which is a football independent, but a basketball member, would go with the hoop group.
The key is finding replacements that are reasonable to both sides.
The first candidate would likely be Louisville, which is decent in football and excellent in basketball. It doesn't make sense regionally, but then again, neither did Miami in the Big East.
To maintain the league's presence in Florida and an entrée to all those recruits, South Florida, which has a fledgling but potentially strong I-A football program, makes sense.
There may be a push for Cincinnati, Memphis or Marshall but few believe there would be enough support.
If the Big East stopped with just Louisville and South Florida, the Big East would have 13 teams in basketball and a football league of UConn, Louisville, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Temple, Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Not as good as it was, but not terrible.
But the Big East would certainly retain its incredibly valuable BCS slot.
But getting that plan past the basketball-only membership without resistance won't be easy. The five basketball-only Catholic schools were never crazy about adding Miami in 1990 or making every expansion move based on football (adding West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Rutgers since the mid-'90s).
Which means enough pressure could emerge to cause a split -- football vs. basketball; the old Big East vs. the new Big East.
Caught right in the middle is one of the schools with its feet on both sides -- Connecticut. Pittsburgh is also a long-time Big East member that plays both sports well, but it will almost certainly stick with West Virginia and Virginia Tech. That axis makes sense geographically, traditionally and philosophically.
UConn isn't so certain, which is why the Huskies could be the most intriguing school in this entire speculative game. UConn does not want to leave the Big East, where both its men's and women's basketball teams have developed into national champions and the fan base is comfortable with the local rivalries.
However, the school has invested tens of millions in upgrading the football program from I-AA to I-A. The state of Connecticut even built the new $90-million, 40,000-seat Rentschler Stadium in East Hartford for the program.
UConn athletic director Lew Perkins pushed for a move to I-A during the 1990s so the Huskies would "have a seat at the table" when the inevitable shakedown came. That seat may force an uncomfortable decision.
UConn, the ultimate basketball school, may be beholden to football. Money, careers and clout with the state government that sets its operating budget are at stake. It can't turn back now.
So if this breaks the wrong way, UConn would either have to choose football over basketball or risk hanging a white elephant of a football stadium on lawmakers who would no doubt hold a grudge. If UConn didn't go with the football schools it would either have to drop back to I-AA or wind up playing as an independent.
If the basketball schools block the addition of Louisville and others, then the result would be a new Big East, and a football-minded convergence of Conference USA and the Big East would be created. UConn would probably have to choose the latter.
This would only happen, however, if these schools can lobby the BCS to get the Big East's membership in the series. Since a split would leave the Big East without I-A football, the sixth slot would be available.
If there is a split, two small groups of schools will stick together. One would be Pitt, Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The other would be Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis. These six could form the core for a new league.
South Florida would be a fine choice. Ditto for Rutgers, which like South Florida isn't particularly good but is in a fertile recruiting ground and TV market.
Then the tough part. The Big East schools may decide to break with Temple and UConn, since neither brings much to the football table. Temple was almost thrown out of the Big East before so the Owls are on shaky ground.
UConn could survive and get an invite based on the strength of its very powerful men's and women's basketball programs. That would make nine members.
The league would also have the chance to choose up to three from the remaining C-USA football schools -- UAB, East Carolina, Houston, Southern Miss, Texas Christian and Tulane. Army and Navy would likely be left out.
That leaves the remaining six Big East basketball schools, who would own the league's valuable name and its tradition, including the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden and its television contracts with ESPN and CBS.
The league would attempt to gobble up some likeminded, mostly Catholic schools that can bolster its already strong staple of television markets.
Marquette and DePaul are from the Midwest but fit that mold. Dayton and Xavier are also along those lines, although slightly less desirable.
The league may want to extend the 12th invitation to Massachusetts, which is a state institution, but has no I-A football aspirations and would help alleviate the loss of New England schools BC and UConn.
Saint Louis, a Catholic school long linked with Marquette and DePaul, is another option, but the old Big East would likely favor more local UMass, even though the Minutemen have fallen on hard times in hoops.
That would be a strong, TV friendly basketball league that may be a better and more appealing long-term fit for the Catholic schools than the current Big East.
Look at it this way: The six Catholic schools would be trading five large state schools, at least three of which care most about a sport they don't play, for a group of more like-minded schools, only one of which is a public institution.
But still, we have UConn.
The Huskies would be dealing with the strangest situation, trying to explain to its fan base that it should chase football fortunes and in a largely Midwest league. Can you imagine UConn playing in a conference basketball tournament in Memphis while all its traditional Northeast rivals gear up for the annual the Big East tourney in New York?
Could that happen? Tough to imagine, but anything is possible if this starts spinning.
Either way, the speculation continues. What of Conference USA and the Atlantic 10, which are now gutted?
The A-10 would look for what it could. Temple could still be around, left out of the shuffle and facing a bleak football picture.
Picking up Charlotte would make sense. After that the league could cull from the best of the mid-major crop with Boston University, Delaware, Hofstra, Holy Cross, Siena and UNC-Wilmington as possible choices.
The left out C-USA teams would scramble. If Houston and TCU don't get into the new league, then perhaps the Mountain West would jump at the chance to expand to 10 teams and get into Texas. The league has long cast its eyes on Fresno State though, so it may prefer to make a move in that direction, maybe adding Boise State too.
If it were the deep South schools -- Alabama-Birmingham, Southern Miss and Tulane -- the Sun Belt would be one alternative. So might linking up with Marshall, grabbing Army and Navy and stealing a couple of desirable Sun Belt teams -- North Texas? Lafayette? Or perhaps TCU and UH are still around.
Needless to say we are a long way down the domino line.
It may never get this far. It may. But from coast to coast, all eyes are on the ACC. The earthquake could be coming. The fallout could be considerable. Or maybe not.
With all of these scenarios in mind, here are SportsLine.com's predictions:
Most likely
Nothing.
Next likely
ACC adds:
- Boston College
- Miami
- Syracuse
New Big East
- Connecticut
- Georgetown (basketball only)
- Louisville
- Notre Dame (basketball only)
- Pittsburgh
- Providence (basketball only)
- Rutgers
- St. John's (basketball only)
- Seton Hall (basketball only)
- South Florida
- Temple (football only)
- Villanova (basketball only)
- Virginia Tech
- West Virginia
Quite possible
New Big East
- Dayton
- DePaul
- Georgetown
- Marquette
- Massachusetts
- Notre Dame
- Providence
- St. John's
- Seton Hall
- Villanova
- Xavier
New Conference USA (or newly named league)
- Cincinnati
- Connecticut
- Louisville
- Houston
- Memphis
- Pittsburgh
- Rutgers
- Southern Miss
- South Florida
- Texas Christian
- Virginia Tech
- West Virginia
New Atlantic 10
- Charlotte
- Fordham
- Duquesne
- George Washington
- LaSalle
- Rhode Island
- Richmond
- Siena
- St. Bonaventure
- Saint Joseph's
- Temple
