It's never the right time to be stupid, but for college underclassmen and high school seniors eyeing the 2004 NBA Draft, this is definitely the wrong time.
It's not the wrong time for everybody, mind you. If the buzz is right on projected top five picks Dwight Howard and Josh Smith, they would have little to gain and a lot to lose by spending a season or two in college.
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Some early entrants will be the next Ndudi Ebi instead of Al Harrington. (Getty Images) |
Connecticut's Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, Stanford's Josh Childress and Nevada's Kirk Snyder wouldn't be stupid to check out early, either. Their games and bodies are NBA-ready, and with three years of college for all them, their heads should be ready, too.
For almost everyone else ... dumb, dumb, dumb.
The reason is so elementary, it's practically high school. Actually, it is high school.
The high school class of 2004 has roughly 10 players considering the NBA Draft, and while most would be smart to go to college, scared NBA teams afraid of passing on the next Kobe or K.G. would probably take each of them in the first round.
That means high school seniors Al Jefferson and Shaun Livingston, J.R. Smith and Sebastian Telfair, Marvin Williams and Randolph Morris, even Robert Swift and Dorell Wright, probably would see their gamble pay off.
Most of them, anyway. If you or I were one of those guys, would iffy words like most and probably stop us from trying that other word, gamble?
Probably not. Let's be honest.
But let's be honest about this, too: Next year would be a much better year for most of these guys, and most underclassmen thinking about it, to enter the NBA Draft.
High school, remember?
While the high school class of 2004 has 10 players with a chance to go in the first round, the class of 2005 has one. Maybe.
It's way too early to know for sure. NBA scouts still haven't reached a consensus on most high school seniors, so it's way too soon to say which juniors will be ready for the 2005 Draft. But judging from the buzz, which is about the only way to measure such things this early in the game, only one prep junior has a good chance to be taken in the first round in 2005: Keith Brumbaugh, a 6-foot-8 wing from the Orlando area.
It comes down to this: Size matters.
The class of 2004 is filled with huge post players (Howard and Morris are 6-feet-11, Swift 7-0), rangy, prototypical NBA wings (Josh Smith and Williams are 6-9) and rare point guards (Livingston, Telfair).
In the class of 2005, only Brumbaugh has the size and skill to catch the NBA's eye right now. Among high school juniors, the best post players are 6-8 or 6-9. The best wings are 6-5 or 6-6. The best point guards aren't as skilled as Livingston or Telfair.
High school seniors might still flood the 2005 draft, but other than Brumbaugh, they're more likely to become the next Korleone (Young) than the next Kobe.
What does it mean? It means the 2005 NBA Draft will belong to college players and internationals, not high school players and internationals.
It means Washington's Nate Robinson, a miniature guard who lacks both the jump shot and playmaking skills to contribute in the NBA, needs to return to college.
It means Dijon Thompson and Trevor Ariza need to get serious and stay at UCLA. It means N.C. State's Julius Hodge was right deciding Wednesday to spend next season developing a jumper he'll be able to make against NBA athletes.
St. John's Darryl Hill? He is not nearly as NBA-ready as past Red Storm point guards Omar Cooke or Erick Barkley. Neither of those guys was ready, either -- but they weren't competing with 10 high school studs for draft spots.
It means some of those 10 high school studs, especially the skinny Livingston and the short Telfair, should be in no hurry to turn pro. The same goes for Marvin Williams, who looks more like Ndudi Ebi than Rashard Lewis or Al Harrington.
Who's Ndudi Ebi? Exactly.
There's plenty of time to make dumb decisions, youngsters, so wait a year. Whatever happened to the art of procrastination?
Most players considering the 2004 NBA Draft should put off for tomorrow what they want to do today.
