A select few should listen to their gut, not the coach

Agents are calling and draft projectors are projecting, but high school seniors Shaun Livingston and Al Jefferson are just kids. How could a kid possibly be ready to make the kind of lifetime decision they face concerning the 2004 NBA Draft?

To a lesser extent, Stanford junior Josh Childress and Duke freshman Luol Deng are still kids, too. They know more than Livingston and Jefferson, but do they know enough?

Arkansas recruit Al Jefferson doesn't like the idea of going to school for just one year. (AP)

To make a decision on the draft, they'll need the counsel of responsible adults speaking the truth. But what if some of the responsible adults aren't speaking the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth (so help them God)?

Not that any college coach, at least none in this story, would offer untrue advice. This is not a story about deceit. But this is a story about trust, and how much college underclassmen and high school seniors should trust their college coach in this process.

In all four cases, these players' coaches have indicated they would be better off in college than the NBA. In other words, given the chance to earn two semesters of college credit or a guaranteed contract worth multiple millions of dollars, these players should pick school.

That's a valid opinion, but it clearly smacks of self-interest. On the other end of the spectrum are agents hoping to add to their wealth by working for Livingston, Jefferson, et al. Does anyone think an agent would counsel a first-round pick to stay in school?

Livingston, a 6-foot-7 point guard from Peoria, Ill., is projected as a certain lottery pick, possibly a top five selection. He has yet to make a decision on the 2004 draft.

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski visited Livingston last week to deliver his stay-in-school message. It's a message other Duke players have heard, including Mike Dunleavy (the No. 3 overall pick in 2002), Jay Williams (No. 2 in 2002), Corey Maggette (No. 13 in 1999) and William Avery (No. 14 in 1999). Coach K gave sophomore Elton Brand his blessing to enter the 1999 draft, when Brand went No. 1 overall.

In Dunleavy's case, Krzyzewski exerted unsubtle pressure by naming him a team captain for the 2002-03 season, even as Dunleavy was wrestling with the draft. Of those Blue Devils advised to stay in school, only Williams did -- passing on the chance to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2001 to finish his education in 2002, graduating in three years.

Deng will enter the draft -- apparently against the advice of Krzyzewski. The 6-8 Deng, who averaged 15.1 points and 6.9 rebounds as a freshman, is projected as a top five pick. Deng's father told the Raleigh News & Observer the family "hope(d) that this does not make Duke unhappy with Luol," and also said, "We have to maintain a friendship of this kind, but I think it will work out smoothly."

Jefferson, a 6-9, 265-pound power player, has told SportsLine.com he'll probably enter the draft. He said Arkansas has promoted the benefits of playing for the Razorbacks as a freshman before entering the 2005 draft, but Jefferson sounded skeptical.

"Can't get no education in one year," he told SportsLine.com.

As for Childress, he wasn't swayed when coach Mike Montgomery volunteered in late March that "kids are supposed to ... finish college and get a degree. That's always been Josh's intention."

A few days later, Childress told Montgomery he was entering the draft.

Like Krzyzewski, Montgomery has a reputation for advising underclassmen to stay in school. Like Deng, Childress has not hired an agent. But like Deng, the 6-8 Childress -- who averaged 15.7 points and 7.5 rebounds as a junior -- is not expected to come back.

The question, again, is one of trust. Here you have four students who are basically assured of becoming millionaires. Their college coaches are advising them not to do that.

From the Duke-Arkansas-Stanford point of view, putting off the NBA Draft is a boon for everyone. Young players can advance their education, body and game while living the envious life of college celebrity. The school gets the services of a special player.

Yes, the player wins in the college scenario. But he wins bigger in the NBA scenario. Another year of education doesn't guarantee a thing in the real world, unlike a first-round NBA contract, which guarantees anywhere from $3 million to $10 million.

Draft stock can sink. Duke guard Chris Duhon was hailed as a first-round pick after his freshman and sophomore seasons before his shooting deficiencies were exposed.

Players get hurt. Look at another Blue Devil, Jay Williams, who suffered potentially career-ending injuries last year in a motorcycle accident. It happened after he had made his first few NBA millions, but one lesson is clear: Tomorrow isn't promised to anyone.

Either choice -- college or NBA -- is a good one. There is no wrong answer here. But if you're Shaun Livingston or Josh Childress, Al Jefferson or Luol Deng, the most sensible choice is the hardest one to make.

It's not easy telling a college coach he's wrong.