Projecting the Field - Preseason edition
SportsLine.com's preseason projections of the 65 schools that will make up this year's NCAA Tournament.
Click on Projecting the NCAA Tournament seeds to see what the projected bracket looks like.
The final Selection Sunday projection nailed 64 of the 65 entries in 2001 and 2002, and 63 in 2003 and 2004.
The Ivy League champion earns an automatic bid, as do the winners of the 30 conference tournaments. At-large bids are handed out to 34 additional schools, based on the strength of their regular seasons (which takes into account won-loss record, conference mark and strength of schedule).
Nov. 12, 2004
| America East (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Vermont | ||
| Taylor Coppenrath and T.J. Sorrentine, entering their fourth season as teammates, will make sure to give Tom Brennan a special going-away present. The veteran coach has already announced he plans on retiring at season's end. | ||
| ACC (6) | ||
| Conference champ: Wake Forest. | ||
| At-large: North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Duke, N.C. State, Maryland. | ||
| Bubble burst: Florida State, Clemson. | ||
| The year's best race should feature Wake, UNC and Georgia Tech jockeying for position atop the conference. Duke, N.C. State and Maryland form a strong second tier that should be able to put together enough quality performances to be no-brainer at-large selections. | ||
| Atlantic Sun (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Georgia State. | ||
| It might take the new-look Panthers some time to gel, but we expect them to be the class of the A-Sun by the time league play rolls around. New point guard Travis DeGroot is a heady playmaker and has an abundance of talent to create for. | ||
| A-10 (2) | ||
| Conference champ: Xavier. | ||
| At-large: George Washington. | ||
| Bubble burst: Saint Joseph's, UMass, Dayton. | ||
| The balance of power in this league has quickly swung to the Western division, where we project both Xavier and GW to merit bids. The loss of Jameer Nelson and Delonte West doesn't necessarily cripple the Hawks, but it does shoot them back to earth. They'll be one of the last teams out. | ||
| Big East (6) | ||
| Conference champ: Connecticut. | ||
| At-large: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, Villanova. | ||
| Bubble burst: Seton Hall, Rutgers, Providence. | ||
| The loss of Virginia Tech and Miami could affect the league's ability to land six berths again. Those three or four extra wins could make a difference, especially when you consider how close together the middle of the pack is. The pressure is on Jay Wright to find a way to earn a bid, while a point guard must be found to keep momentum at Seton Hall moving in a positive direction. We'll say it here first: Andre Barrett will be the league's most missed player, not Emeka Okafor or Ben Gordon. | ||
| Big Sky (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Montana | ||
| Former NBA player Larry Krystkowiak will find immediate success at his alma mater, as Pat Kennedy left some players for him to work with. The inside-outside combo of Kamarr Davis and Kevin Criswell can be dominant, while the loss of Ray Giacoletti and a standout backcourt brings Eastern Washington back to the pack. | ||
| Big South (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Birmingham Southern. | ||
| With the provisional period after its move to D-I now over, Birmingham Southern will waste no time in taking advantage of its new benefits. The Panthers are eligible to compete in both the Big South and NCAA Tournaments for the first time and have the talent to dance immediately. | ||
| Big Ten (5) | ||
| Conference champ: Illinois. | ||
| At-large: Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa. | ||
| Bubble burst: Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue. | ||
| Can Indiana and Purdue really miss the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons? The answer to that question is a definite yes. Though Bracey Wright's back is healthy enough for him to carry the team, the Hoosiers still appear to be too young to crack the top five. Purdue has already caught a bad break with the loss of David Teague for a few months and is relying too heavily on JC import Carl Landry, who will likely require some form of an adjustment period. | ||
| Big 12 (5) | ||
| Conference champ: Kansas. | ||
| At-large: Oklahoma State, Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State. | ||
| Bubble burst: Missouri, Texas Tech, Nebraska. | ||
| Yes, we're projecting Missouri to miss out again, only this time they won't be colossal under-achievers. Facts: They're relying on a freshman to fix their point guard problem, and although Jason Horton is a fabulous prospect, that's not ideal. Linas Kleiza is a beast inside, but he has little to no help. Jason Conley, once the nation's leading scorer as a freshman at VMI, has still yet to prove he can be consistent at this level. | ||
| Big West (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Pacific. | ||
| Bubble burst: Utah State, Northridge. | ||
| A 17-1 league mark and 25 total victories still wasn't enough to get Utah State into last year's NCAAs, so we're not going to be foolish and project this as a two-bid league again (though it should have been). An interesting race will develop between Pacific, which ousted Provdidence last year, the Aggies, and Northridge. | ||
| Colonial (1) | ||
| Conference champ: George Mason. | ||
| Seven of this league's 10 schools finished with .500 or better conference marks last season, so the fact this should again be a competitive race shouldn't come as a surprise. We're taking the Patriots to prevail thanks to the all-league inside-outside combo of Jai Lewis and Jamar Butler and an improving supporting cast. | ||
| Conference USA (5) | ||
| Conference champ: Louisville. | ||
| At-large: Memphis, Charlotte, UAB, Cincinnati. | ||
| Bubble burst: Marquette, DePaul. | ||
| The top of this league is as good and deep as any other major, which speaks volumes about how far the collection of schools have come in a decade's time. Freshmen will play a huge factor in this race, with the crown possibly riding on who fares best, Louisville's Tello Palacios or Memphis' Darius Washington. | ||
| Horizon League (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Illinois-Chicago. | ||
| The Flames are shooting for their third NCAA Tourney in four years, and have the focal points of the last two championship squads, super athletes Armond Williams and Cedrick Banks back as fifth-year seniors. Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Detroit will again be strong, but UIC has the experience and firepower to hold them off. | ||
| Ivy League (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Princeton. | ||
| Joe Scott revived Air Force and had a good thing going there, but a better situation awaits him at his alma mater, where he'll have a chance to be a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. The Tigers will continue to rule the Ivy League and have a clear advantage in talent with the likes of seniors Judson Wallace and Will Venable on board. | ||
| MAAC (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Manhattan. | ||
| Without Luis Flores to lean on, Bobby Gonzalez gets to prove what all the fuss is about regarding his coaching ability. There's a reason he's been such a hot name in recent years, and it combines being able to reload through recruiting (C.J. Anderson, Arturo Dubois) with molding role players into go-to guys (Peter Mulligan, Mike Konovelchick). Fairfield and Niagara are worthy challengers. | ||
| MAC (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Toledo. | ||
| Bubble burst: Western Michigan. | ||
| As usual, the MAC has a handful of strong contenders that could make it a multi-bid league, but the Rockets are clearly the best of the bunch. Keith Triplett, Sammy Villegas and Justin Ingram form a guard trio most of the nation would love to employ, and if they get defense and boards from the big guys, it's hard to imagine Toledo losing many games. | ||
| MEAC (1) | ||
| Conference champ: South Carolina State. | ||
| The Bulldogs won the regular season race last year, but stumbled in the conference tourney. All five starters return for another opportunity, leaving the team so stacked that it's hard to imagine them coming up short again. | ||
| Mid-Con (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Oral Roberts. | ||
| Oral Roberts seemed to run out of steam at the end of last season, a predictable outcome given its key players were freshmen. That shouldn't be a problem this year. Caleb Green and Ken Tutt are now experienced, and will have the benefit of standout senior point guard Luke Spencer-Gardner (medical redshirt- knee) back in the lineup. | ||
| Missouri Valley (2) | ||
| Conference champ: Wichita State. | ||
| At-large: Southern Illinois. | ||
| Bubble burst: SW Missouri State. | ||
| The Missouri Valley sends multiple schools to the NCAAs every season, so we're just going to go ahead and account for that now, especially since the top two look so strong. Wichita State returns four starters, including player of the year candidates Jamar Howard and Randy Burns, while Southern Illinois may as well be Gonzaga-East. The Salukis will be potent again, with first-year coach Chris Lowery unlikely to miss a beat as he takes over for Purdue-bound Matt Painter. | ||
| Mountain West (2) | ||
| Conference champ: UNLV. | ||
| At-large: Utah. | ||
| Bubble burst: New Mexico, Air Force, BYU. | ||
| Headliners UNLV and Utah look like the class of the league, which increases the likelihood of what would be a disappointing two-bid showing. We're projecting Air Force and BYU to fall off after losing substantial personnel, while lauding the Runnin' Rebels as our major sleeper. Lon Kruger will get the talented, athletic Rebs to play defense, which should make all the difference given the level of talent on the roster. | ||
| Northeast (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Monmouth. | ||
| The Hawks enjoyed their first NCAA Tournament trip so much, we think it's only natural they'd like to go again. Key pieces Blake Hamilton, Dwayne Byfield and Tyler Azzarelli return, and the arrival of 6-11 Central Michigan transfer Corey Hallett makes them even stronger. | ||
| Ohio Valley (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Tennessee State. | ||
| We're calling for a mild upset this year, with perennial OVC powers Austin Peay and Murray State being foiled in the conference tournament. Cy Alexander's Tigers, who add transfers Eric King (St. John's), Wayne Arnold (Georgia) and Rod Flowers (Cincinnati) to a mix that includes top scorers Bruce Fields and Roshaun Bowens, will gel down the stretch and make the school's first NCAA appearance in 11 years. | ||
| Pac-10 (4) | ||
| Conference champ: Arizona. | ||
| At-large: Washington, Stanford, UCLA. | ||
| Bubble burst: Oregon, Southern California, Washington State. | ||
| Last season was collectively awful for this league, which only salvaged three bids thanks to Washington's late push. Things should start to get back to normal this year, thanks in part to great freshmen classes at UCLA and Oregon. Both schools will have their share of ups and downs, but we're projecting the Bruins to edge the Ducks for the league's final bid due to better depth and a superior non-conference schedule. Anyone expecting Stanford to decline immediately under Trent Edwards should think again. Mike Montgomery left behind plenty of talent, all of it smart. | ||
| Patriot League (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Lehigh. | ||
| Coach Billy Taylor returns a roster filled with contributors from last season's special team, and the best of them, Oliver and Mgebroff, are just sophomores. Repeating won't be easy, though. The Mountain Hawks must replace PG Austen Rowland and hold off an emerging Bucknell squad which should be very tough come season's end. | ||
| SEC (6) | ||
| Conference champ: Kentucky. | ||
| At-large: Mississippi State, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt. | ||
| Bubble burst: Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina. | ||
| This is the space where we've been telling you Kentucky is missing something for the past three seasons, which of course made the Big Blue nation quite angry. Now, even though we've been absolutely right, we offer a truce. Given Tubby Smith's ability to teach and coach and the great young talent on board, the Wildcats are not only the class of the SEC, but a viable national championship contender as well. Let the love-fest begin. As for Vandy's inclusion, don't sell Kevin Stallings short. | ||
| Southern (1) | ||
| Conference champ: East Tennessee State. | ||
| Bubble burst: College of Charleston, Davidson. | ||
| The Bucs went 15-1 in league play last year, running away from everyone in the North division. Expect more of the same with Timmy Smith back running the show, although it will be a bit tougher considering tag-team partner Zakee Wadood is gone. Still, Smith is a major talent shining in a mid-major league, which makes a gigantic difference down the stretch and in big games. | ||
| Southland (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Sam Houston State. | ||
| The Bearkats feature the league's top frontcourt, which will be strengthened by the return of center Eddy Fobbs, who sat out last year with a knee injury. If they get consistent guard play, Sam Houston State will simply out-bully opponents this season. | ||
| Sun Belt (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Arkansas State. | ||
| Bubble burst: Louisiana-Lafayette, Middle Tennessee. | ||
| The Indians will re-emerge behind a terrific recruiting class that joins explosive scorers Dewarick Spencer and J.J. Montgomery. If Dickey Nutt can get the team to share the ball and hustle on the defensive end, they're going to be awfully difficult to contain. Robert Lee, new coach at UL-Lafayette, should keep his team on top of the West division given the abundance of talent that returns. | ||
| SWAC (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Southern. | ||
| After getting his feet wet replacing the legendary Ben Jobe, Michael Grant has the personnel in place to take the Jaguars to the NCAAs for the first time since 1993. Deon Saunders is the best big man in the league -- a stretch considering he's 6-5 -- and there's plenty of depth on the perimeter. | ||
| WAC (2) | ||
| Conference champ: UTEP. | ||
| At-large: Louisiana Tech. | ||
| Bubble burst: Rice, Nevada. | ||
| The Miners are a clear favorite despite the fact coach Billy Gillespie left for Texas A&M. Former assistant Doc Sadler inherits standout point guard Fili Rivera, the best of four double-digit scorers from last year's co-champions. The race for second should be tight. Rice will be in every game as long as beast Michael Harris remains healthy, while Louisiana Tech and Nevada will go as far as young big men Paul Millsap and Nick Fazekas take them. | ||
| West Coast (1) | ||
| Conference champ: Gonzaga. | ||
| Bubble burst: Pepperdine. | ||
| Pepperdine, Saint Mary's and most of the rest of the league is expected to be better, but the championship in this league continues to run through Spokane. The 'Zags feature tremendous forwards in Ronny Turiaf and Adam Morrison, and the early word is that point guard Derek Raivio has improved greatly after his freshman apprenticeship under Blake Stepp. | ||
Last four in: Villanova, Louisiana Tech, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Last four out: Seton Hall, Oregon, Saint Joseph's, Missouri
