Projecting the Field
Check back weekly for our lastest projections regarding the NCAA Tournament's field of 65 teams.
The Ivy League champion earns an automatic bid, as do the winners of the 30 conference tournaments. At-large bids are handed out to 34 additional schools, based on the strength of their regular seasons (which takes into account won-loss record, conference mark and strength of schedule).
January 19, 2006
| America East (1) | |
| Projected champ: Albany. | |
| The Great Danes have continued their steady ascent since joining D-I and appear to be the heavy favorite to end Vermont's lengthy reign atop the league. | |
| ACC (6) | |
| Projected champ: Duke. | |
| At-large: Boston College, N.C. State, Maryland, North Carolina, Miami (Fla.). | |
| Bubble burst: Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia. | |
| The Demon Deacons need to get their act together in conference play to get in the picture. It would be a disastrous waste of talent if they do get left out. | |
| Atlantic Sun (1) | |
| Projected champ: Florida Atlantic. | |
| Matt Doherty has the Owls playing the best ball in the league, quickly breathing life into a program that is seeking its second NCAA appearance. | |
| A-10 (3) | |
| Projected champ: George Washington. | |
| At-large: Xavier, Charlotte. | |
| Bubble burst: Richmond. | |
| The Colonials have risen to the challenge of being the targeted favorite. At the other end of the spectrum has been Dayton, which has yet to get its footing in conference play and appears headed for a disappointing .500 season. | |
| Big East (7) | |
| Projected champ: Villanova. | |
| At-large: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette. | |
| Bubble burst: Louisville, Notre Dame, Georgetown, DePaul, Rutgers. | |
| Carl Krauser has guided the Panthers to an unblemished start, quite possibly the season's biggest surprise. Meanwhile, Louisville has found its new home to have its fair share of pitfalls and currently finds itself out. That blowout loss to Kentucky doesn't help its cause either given the Wildcats struggles. | |
| Big Sky (1) | |
| Projected champ: Montana. | |
| The Griz lost just one senior from last year's conference champ and rely on a perimeter attack led by senior guards Kevin Criswell and Virgil Matthews. | |
| Big South (1) | |
| Projected champ: Winthrop. | |
| The Eagles own the league again. What else is new? | |
| Big Ten (7) | |
| Projected champ: Wisconsin. | |
| At-large: Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan. | |
| Bubble burst: Minnesota. | |
| The Big Ten is most certainly back. There appear to be seven clear-cut tournament teams, increasing the odds that they can duplicate last year's feat of landing three teams in the Elite Eight. | |
| Big 12 (4) | |
| Projected champ: Texas. | |
| At-large: Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State. | |
| Bubble burst: Kansas, Nebraska, Kansas State, Texas A&M. | |
| It's impossible to predict what is going to happen in a Big 12 race that seems jumbled with mediocrity. RPIs are in the toilet, and only the Longhorns appear to be a legitimate title contender, though even that's hard to say with a straight face given the Duke debacle. | |
| Big West (1) | |
| Projected champ: UC Irvine. | |
| Preseason favorites Pacific and UC Santa Barbara have gotten off to slow starts, opening the door for Pat Douglas' Anteaters, who are loaded with veterans and seem to be peaking at the right time. | |
| Colonial (2) | |
| Projected champ: Old Dominion. | |
| At-large: George Mason. | |
| Bubble burst: UNC Wilmington. | |
| Don't put multiple bids past this league, as its arguably the strongest it has ever been. | |
| Conference USA (2) | |
| Projected champ: Memphis. | |
| At-large: UAB. | |
| Bubble burst: UTEP. | |
| The Tigers might stumble once or twice in the conference season but should coast to the league title, which given their RPI, puts them in line for a No. 1 seed. | |
| Horizon League (1) | |
| Projected champ: Wisconsin-Milwaukee. | |
| Too many return for the Panthers to be dethroned despite losing Bruce Pearl, although if anyone catches them, it appears Wright State is set to make a run. If UWM is upset in the league tournament, its RPI may still be high enough to merit an at-large bid. | |
| Ivy League (1) | |
| Projected champ: Pennsylvania. | |
| The Quakers should have enough to hold off Harvard, Cornell and rival Princeton. | |
| MAAC (1) | |
| Projected champ: Manhattan. | |
| No one in the MAAC is more talented than sophomore forward C.J. Anderson, including Saint Peter's guard Keydren Clark, the nation's top returning scorer. | |
| MAC (1) | |
| Projected champ: Ohio. | |
| Bubble burst: Akron. | |
| Leon Williams and Jeremy Fears helped pace the Bobcats to an NCAA berth last year -- as freshmen. East division mates Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Akron are all off to undefeated starts, but Ohio is still hanging in there. | |
| MEAC (1) | |
| Projected champ: Delaware State. | |
| The Hornets are exceptionally coached and fight for every inch. That combo alone will win the conference. | |
| Mid-Con (1) | |
| Projected champ: Oral Roberts. | |
| The traditional rivalry of Valpo and ORU will ultimately end up deciding who dances. | |
| Missouri Valley (3) | |
| Projected champ: Northern Iowa. | |
| At-large: Southern Illinois, Wichita State. | |
| Bubble burst: Creighton, Missouri State. | |
| Due to remarkably high RPIs, the MVC appears to be a three-bid league again, with four a definite possibility. | |
| Mountain West (1) | |
| Projected champ: Air Force. | |
| Bubble burst: San Diego State. | |
| As expected, the Mountain West has been subpar, with only Air Force looming as a potential at-large possibility should it fail to secure the automatic bid. | |
| Northeast (1) | |
| Projected champ: Robert Morris. | |
| Everything seems to have together nicely for the Colonials, who welcomed in a host of transfers and freshmen and have taken hold of the league lead. | |
| Ohio Valley (1) | |
| Projected champ: Murray State. | |
| All five starters return for the Racers, who fell to second last year after running the league for most of the decade. Tennessee Tech appears to be a worthy challenger to their supremacy. | |
| Pac-10 (4) | |
| Projected champ: Arizona. | |
| At-large: Washington, UCLA, California. | |
| Bubble burst: Stanford, Oregon State, Southern California, Washington State. | |
| Early results throughout the conference indicate parity, so this projection is based on the teams with the most talent coming together and rising to the top. Stanford was expected to be among the core group of top teams but has thus far looked mediocre. | |
| Patriot League (1) | |
| Projected champ: Bucknell. | |
| The team that ended Kansas' season prematurely in the past NCAA Tournament returned pretty much everyone and looks improved. | |
| SEC (6) | |
| Projected champ: Florida. | |
| At-large: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, Kentucky, Alabama. | |
| Bubble burst: Ole Miss, Arkansas. | |
| Aside from the Gators, every team has work to do, even though there are plenty of solid resumes in place. At this point, Ole Miss and Arkansas are the teams we're leaving out, but they have plenty of opportunity to work their way in. The SEC race, with no real powerhouse this year, promises to be ultra competitive. | |
| Southern (1) | |
| Projected champ: Davidson. | |
| After faltering in the SoCon tourney following a 16-0 regular season in league play, the Wildcats will finish the deal this year. | |
| Southland (1) | |
| Projected champ: Northwestern State. | |
| The Demons return their top 11 players from last year's regular-season champs. | |
| Sun Belt (1) | |
| Projected champ: Western Kentucky. | |
| The Hilltoppers have one of the country's most underrated backcourts and should roll past their East Division competition. Out in the West, South Alabama, North Texas and Denver loom as potential rivals. | |
| SWAC (1) | |
| Projected champ: Southern. | |
| Expect to see the Jaguars in this year's play-in game. | |
| WAC (1) | |
| Projected champ: Nevada. | |
| Potential All-America center Nick Fazekas leads the WAC's best hope of making noise in the NCAAs. Frankly, they're its only hope. | |
| West Coast (1) | |
| Projected champ: Gonzaga. | |
| Everybody who sees Adam Morrison loves him. Come March, he'll be the nation's darling. |
