Leading up to the Final Four on Saturday, Gregg Doyel reports on each team playing in St. Louis. The second installment is on Albuquerque Regional champion Louisville.
Illinois has to be the favorite. Illinois is 36-1, with its only loss coming at the buzzer at Ohio State, and 30 of the wins coming by a double-digit knockout. Illinois is also a No. 1 seed -- the No. 1 seed in the 2005 NCAA Tournament.
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| Rick Pitino's Cardinals own the two most notable wins of the tourney. (Getty Images) |
It can't be an upset, not if Louisville loses. Louisville is a No. 4 seed, and when that seeding was announced, it looked defensible. Conference USA was down this season. Louisville's non-conference schedule was weak. Its 29-4 record and No. 4 national ranking entering the NCAA Tournament smelled fraudulent.
Louisville doesn't smell like a fraud anymore. It is starting to smell like a favorite, at least against Illinois (nobody will be favored against North Carolina).
The Cardinals have been guilty of the occasional letdown -- struggling in the first round against Louisiana-Lafayette and falling behind by 20 to West Virginia in the Albuquerque Region final -- but when the Cardinals are on, no one is better. Louisville owns two of the most impressive victories of the NCAA Tournament, beating No. 5 seed Georgia Tech by 22 and No. 1 seed Washington by 14.
The NCAA Tournament is all about matchups and personnel, and while the Cardinals come out of the Albuquerque Region as its No. 4 seed, they match up with Illinois better than any of the top three seeds. No. 1 Washington plays like Illinois, guard-oriented and fast-paced, and no one is going to beat Illinois at its own game. No. 2 Wake Forest and No. 3 Gonzaga? The Illini played both this season … and won by a combined 35 points.
But Louisville? Louisville matches up with Illinois better than anyone the Illini have faced this season. Better, yes, than Arizona -- which led Illinois by 15 with four minutes to go in the Chicago Region final.
In particular, Louisville has three things that will trouble Illinois.
Huge backcourt: Illinois's three guards -- 6-foot-3 Deron Williams, 6-3 Luther Head and 6-foot Dee Brown -- form the best backcourt in college basketball, but they've struggled against bigger backcourts. And Louisville has one of the biggest backcourts in the country.
Against Arkansas, which features 6-7 Ronnie Brewer, 6-5 Olu Famutimi and 6-4 Jonathan Modica, Illinois' All-Big Ten trio was 9-for-25 from the floor (36 percent) with more turnovers (11) than assists (10). The final score was 72-60, but it was close until the final minutes.
Against Iowa, when the Hawkeyes had 6-4 Pierre Pierce along with 6-5 Adam Haluska and 6-3 Jeff Horner, Illinois' three guards were 13-for-32 from the floor (40.6 percent) with the same ratio of assists (10) to turnovers (11). Illinois needed overtime, at home, to win 73-68 on Jan. 20.
Louisville will be bigger than Illinois at every backcourt spot. Francisco Garcia is 6-7. Larry O'Bannon is 6-4 and powerful. Taquan Dean is 6-3.
