March 12, 2006
5:35 a.m.
FINAL PROJECTION.
Gettin' in: Hampton.
Steppin' out: Delaware State.
Check back daily for our lastest projections regarding the NCAA Tournament's field of 65 teams. Last year's final projection correctly identified all 65 teams.
Penn, the Ivy League champion earns an automatic bid, as do the winners of the 30 conference tournaments. At-large bids are handed out to 34 additional schools, based on the strength of their regular seasons (which takes into account won-loss record, conference mark and strength of schedule).
| America East (1) | |
| In: Albany | |
| Will Brown has been rewarded for his patience with a conference championship. He opened the season 40 games under .500 in his four-year stint with the Great Danes, but now has the school's first NCAA berth in his possession. Fittingly, they went through former league juggernaut Vermont, which surprisingly reached the league final but was overwhemed in Albany's gym. | |
| ACC (4) | |
| In: Duke. | |
| At-large: Boston College, N.C. State, North Carolina. | |
| Bubble burst: Florida State, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Virginia. | |
| The emergence of Greg Paulus in the ACC Tournament was a key factor in Duke surviving Miami, Wake and Boston College, each of which made runs. If the freshman point guard continues to play at a high level in the NCAAs, Duke is going to be tough to beat.. Florida State completely fell apart in the final minutes against Wake Forest on Thursday, and that's the cruelty life on the bubble; it is possible to lose a bid you've worked so hard all year to earn in a matter of moments. Wake Forest, looking to sneak into the NCAAs after underachieving all season, thrashed N.C. State in the quarters, but couldn't hang with the Blue Devils during the final minutes of Saturday's upset bid. | |
| Atlantic Sun (1) | |
| In: Belmont. | |
| The efforts of Justin Hare (32 points) were enough to hold off a game Lipscomb team, giving the Bruins bragging rights in the city of Nashville and their first trip to the NCAA Tournament. It was fitting that the game went overtime, as both regular-season co-champions left it all out there in a quality game. | |
| A-10 (2) | |
| In: Xavier. | |
| At-large: George Washington. | |
| Bubble burst: Saint Joseph's Charlotte, Saint Louis, Temple. | |
| Stanley Burrell caught fire during the latter stages of Saturday's league final, and the Musketeers displayed their perseverance in a nail-biter over worthy Saint Joseph's. Despite losing top players Brian Thornton (injury) and Dedrick Finn (suspension), Xavier dances once again. | |
| Big East (8) | |
| In: Syracuse | |
| At-large: Villanova, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall. | |
| Bubble burst: Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers. | |
| What Syracuse accomplished in the NCAA Tournament won't soon be forgotten, especially since Gerry McNamara cemented himself as one of the finest clutch college players of his era. Also important is the status of Allan Ray, whose eye injury may keep him out of a first round Villanova is unlikely to need him for. Beyond that, though, they need the talented guard's service. | |
| Big Sky (1) | |
| In: Montana. | |
| Give the Grizzlies credit, as they took it to the Lumberjacks, swiping the championship from them on their own home floor to spoil what would have been a very big party. At least NAU has the NIT, but Montana freshman Jordan Hasquet (20 points, 13 rebounds) helped ensure that's all it would have. | |
| Big South (1) | |
| In: Winthrop. | |
| Winthrop nearly suffered its third loss of the season against Buzz Peterson's vastly improved Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, but a big basket inside from junior Craig Bradshaw with 10 seconds left, followed by a vital defensive stop, allow the Eagles to march on. It hasn't been easy of late, but Gregg Marshall continues to find ways to keep his team on top, earning his sixth NCAA Tournament bid. | |
| Big Ten (6) | |
| In: Iowa. | |
| At-large: Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana. | |
| Bubble burst: Michigan, Minnesota. | |
| Ohio State failed to claim a No. 1 seed against Iowa in Sunday's final, but this weekend was substantial for the Buckeyes in that it avoided any ramifications for this year's team for the transgressions committed under former head coach Jim O'Brien, and following that up with a comeback win over Penn State. Mike Davis' run as Indiana coach will now certainly continue into the NCAAs, despite the discontent among Hoosiers fans and the narrow loss to the Buckeyes. The Spartans have also locked up a bid beyond any doubt following their semifinal berth by virtue of taking out Illinois. Michigan, in losing to Minnesota in round one, is out. | |
| Big 12 (4) | |
| In: Kansas. | |
| At-large: Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M. | |
| Bubble burst: Colorado, Nebraska. | |
| The Longhorns learned a valuable lesson in the conference final against Kansas, as they got sloppy with the ball, lost focus, and ultimately let a game they envisioned controlling slip away. While losing out on a conference championship is painful, it may be beneficial in giving Rick Barnes a few teaching points entering the NCAAs. The quarterfinal between Colorado and Texas A&M was likely an elimination game, and the better team, the Aggies, embraced the situation, routing the Buffs 86-53. Winning its eighth consecutive and reaching the Big 12 semis guaranteed Billy Gillespie's team its first bid since 1987, and they further impressed by taking Texas to the wire in the semis. | |
| Big West (1) | |
| In: Pacific. | |
| PPacific outlasted Cal Poly and Long Beach in the Big West to reach yet another NCAA Tournament. The season didn't start out smoothly, but the Tigers rallied around the league's top talent, forward Christian Maraker, and the phenomenal coaching of Bob Thomason. | |
| Colonial (3) | |
| In: UNC-Wilmington. | |
| At-large: George Mason, Hofstra. | |
| Bubble burst: Old Dominion. | |
| The Pride did what they had to do, putting the final touches on their resumé by reaching the conference tournament final despite only using six players. Although they fell behind from the jump in the championship game against UNC-Wilmington, they showed enough fortitude to battle back and lose by a margin that likely won't be held against them by the selection committee. Despite losing to Hofstra twice in the last 10 days, George Mason should also still have enough to gain an at-large bid, though it and the Pride are among the last teams in. | |
| Conference USA (2) | |
| In: Memphis. | |
| At-large: UAB. | |
| Bubble burst: UTEP, Houston. | |
| The Tigers may overcome the perception that C-USA weak due to its dominance in sweeping the regular season and tournament titles. Memphis has five pros on its roster and was impressive in handling UAB's pressure and containing its explosive offense. It also ended Houston 's dream of joining the at-large conversation, overcoming an early deficit to win comfortably. UAB's semifinal win over UTEP earned it a bid and helped redeem itself for its only recent loss. The two finalists are definitely in the field of 65. | |
| Horizon League (1) | |
| In: Wisconsin-Milwaukee. | |
| UWM slid comfortably past Butler in the Horizon final as four starters scored in double figures and the bench contributed 22 points on 9-for-12 shooting. The veteran Panthers are a team you don't want to face in the first round of the NCAAs. | |
| Ivy League (1) | |
| In: Pennsylvania. | |
| The Quakers aren't as formidable as they've been in the past, but will still be a tough out for a top-three seed after running through a tough Ivy League schedule where everyone was out to get them. A loss to Princeton in the regular-season finale yields no consequences. | |
| MAAC (1) | |
| In: Iona. | |
| Despite the efforts Keydren Clark, who finishes as the No. 6 scorer in Division I history, St. Peter's didn't have enough to challenge a loaded Iona squad in the MAAC Championship. As a result, Steve Burtt, Ricky Soliver and Co. are headed to the Big Dance and should provide tough opposition for a top-three seed. Burtt joined his father as the only players in Iona history to top the 2,000-point mark in a career. | |
| MAC (1) | |
| In: Kent State. | |
| Bubble burst: Akron, Miami (Ohio). | |
| Kent State made it 19 wins in its last 22 tries entering the NCAAs after surviving a late charge from Toledo in the MAC Final. Jim Christian's team is going to be dangerous in the NCAAs, as it sports an impressive senior backcourt in DeAndre Haynes and Jay Youngblood, and a disciplined defense that would give any team fits. | |
| MEAC (1) | |
| In: Hampton. | |
| The Pirates accomplished the improbable by knocking out the top-seeded Hornets, who eased their way to the regular-season title with a 16-2 mark and waltzed into the final. In truth, the Pirates beat Delaware State at its own game, prevailing in a squeaker through defensive and execution. | |
| Mid-Con (1) | |
| In: Oral Roberts. | |
| Preseason favorite Oral Roberts took advantage of an IUPUI collapse in the regular season's final week to claim a share of the league title and the No. 1 seed in the Mid-Con Tournament. They then took advantage of the Jaguars' shocking loss to Chicago State in the semifinals to have an easier road to the NCAA Tournament. Ken Tutt, who returned from a broken foot late in the season, led the Golden Eagles with 25 points vs. the Cougars in the final. | |
| Missouri Valley (5) | |
| In: Southern Illinois. | |
| At-large: Wichita State, Bradley, Northern Iowa, Missouri State. | |
| Bubble burst: Creighton. | |
| The Salukis put together some fabulous defense throughout the conference tournament to earn the automatic bid. Despite losing in the league final, Bradley is in the NCAAs through its work down the stretch, sealing the deal by dispatching regular-season champ Wichita State in the semis. Expect the Braves to be dangerous too, as forward Marcellus Somerville and 7-foot sophomore Patrick O'Bryant, a future pro, anchor a fantastic frontcourt. Missouri State and Northern Iowa are on pins and needles waiting to find out its fate, which will be one of the toughest decisions the selection committee will have to make. By our count, Creighton is out. | |
| Mountain West (1) | |
| In: San Diego State. | |
| Bubble burst: Air Force, BYU, UNLV. | |
| San Diego State completed a magical season by surviving gritty Wyoming in ovetime and emerging with an NCAA Tournament bid. The Aztecs may have been left out had they lost to the Cowboys, despite finishing as the Mountain West's regular season champ. Simply put, they had neither the RPI or quality wins to merit an at-large bid, but luckily for them, it didn't come to that. The burning question is, did Wyoming's shocking upset of Air Force send the academy to the NIT? In my opinion, it does. No, the Mountain West isn't a bad league, but a lot of its teams are pretty average, hindering the Falcons. Aside from a single win over regular season champ San Diego State, they're "quality" wins are over likely NIT participants Miami (FL), Georgia Tech and UNLV. That's not exactly murderer's row, so their 24-6 mark and solid RPI shouldn't be able to overcome a schedule strength in the 150s. | |
| Northeast (1) | |
| In: Monmouth. | |
| Chris Kenny caught Fairleigh Dickinson faltering in transition and hit a layup with just over two seconds remaining to send the Hawks to their second NCAA Tournament in three seasons. Monmouth could be in for additional face time if it is sent to the NCAA Play-in game, which appears to be a definite possibility. | |
| Ohio Valley (1) | |
| In: Murray State. | |
| Using their typical formula of depth and defense, the Racers made life miserable on Samford in the tournament final to reach their second NCAA Tournament in three years. After rallying from a double-digit deficit in the second half against Jacksonville State, Murray State pulled away handily against the Bulldogs. The Racers have won 19 of 21 games entering the Big Dance. | |
| Pac-10 (4) | |
| In: UCLA. | |
| At-large: Washington, California, Arizona. | |
| Bubble burst: Stanford, Southern California. | |
| UCLA solidified a top-three seed by doubling as Pac-10 regular season and conference tournament champs, capturing the tourney title for the first time in nearly a decade. The backcourt of Jordan Farmar and Aaron Afflalo, flanked by an extremely athletic frontcourt, should make signifant noise in the NCAAs. Championship game loser California cemented its NCAA Tournament bid by doing a number on USC in the quarters and outlasting Oregon in the semis. Stanford, meanwhile is out, as the crutch of a solid mark in conference play isn't going to cut it, given the rest of its resume. | |
| Patriot League (1) | |
| In: Bucknell. | |
| Bucknell eased the concerns of the nation's bubble teams with a 15-point win over Holy Cross in the Patriot final. It did make some sweat following a sluggish start, but ultimately, the Bison exerted their superiority and remain a team you want your team to avoid in the NCAAs. They may just be giant-killing, Sweet 16 material. | |
| SEC (6) | |
| In: Florida. | |
| At-large: LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas. | |
| Bubble burst: South Carolina. | |
| South Carolina made a noble effort, but its postseason will have to continue in the NIT, not the NCAAs. The Gamecocks improved throughout the year, progressing into a prototypical Dave Odom team by putting defense and effort at a premium. Florida, which finally stopped USC's run, has apparently overcome the slump it fell into over the last month. If Kentucky's tournament status was ever in doubt, that ended with their berth into Saturday's semis, and being upset by South Carolina did nothing to change that. The Wildcats improved throughout the course of the season and are certainly worthy of an at-large bid. The verdict remains out on Alabama though, and its likely the Tide will be one of the final teams in or out when Sunday's announcement is made. | |
| Southern (1) | |
| In: Davidson. | |
| The SoCon final was never close, as Chattanooga succumbed to Davidson, which was kept out of last year's NCAAs despite an undefeated regular-season record after faltering in the conference tournament. With so many seniors back, the Wildcats are going to be a tough out and figure to come out focused on making up for lost time. | |
| Southland (1) | |
| In: Northwestern State. | |
| The Demons lost once in conference play and they may just be the best Southland entry in quite some time, capping a strong year with an explosive performance in the conference final over Sam Houston State. Their experience and depth will make them a tough first round matchup. | |
| Sun Belt (1) | |
| In: South Alabama. | |
| Pulling out their perfect game at the most opportune of times, the Jaguars are going dancing for the first time in eight years. Tournament MVP Chey Christie, a Clemson transfer, went 6-for-6 in the title game and helped USA's backcourt outplay Western Kentucky's lauded tandem of Anthony Winchester and Courtney Lee. | |
| SWAC (1) | |
| In: Southern. | |
| The stingy Jaguars held upset-minded Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 31 percent shooting to stave off an upset bid in the SWAC title game. Former Alabama State coach Rob Spivery is a winner in his first season with Southern, thanks to Peter Cipriano's 21-point, nine-rebound effort. Expect to see the Jags in the NCAA Tournament Play-in game. | |
| WAC (1) | |
| In: Nevada. | |
| Bubble burst: Utah State, Louisiana Tech. | |
| Nevada state did everyone else in the country a favor by outlasting Utah State in overtime of the WAC Championship, likely ending the Aggies fleeting at-large hopes. Despite a pretty solid resume, the reality of the situation is that the Aggies needed to take out Nevada to keep the WAC from being a one-bid league. From the Wolf Pack's perspective, they probably improved their seed into a top-six. | |
| West Coast (1) | |
| In: Gonzaga. | |
| San Diego and Loyola Marymount didn't make it easy, but the Zags accomplished their mission in the WCC Tournament to roll through the conference regular season and postseason unscathed. A top-three seed awaits as their reward. |
Last four in: Seton Hall, Missouri State, George Mason, Hofstra.
Last four out: Cincinnati, Florida State, Creighton, Michigan.
