Ten for Tuesday: Some will find pro option most painful
Right now, these are the 10 most important players in college basketball. All 10 are underclassmen who are considering turning pro via the NBA Draft. If they do, the consequences will be dire for the college program they leave behind.
Ten for Tuesday is nothing if not negative.
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| Duke an NIT team? Without McRoberts it just may be. (Getty Images) |
2. Kyle Lowry, Villanova: Allan Ray and Randy Foye are gone, but there are enough pieces left for Villanova to stay in the top half of the brutal Big East, which means a likely spot in the Top 25 and a definite bid to the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Without Lowry? Look, Mike Nardi is a great third or fourth guard, but if he's your lead guard ... you're in trouble. Lowry's decision will make or break Villanova next season. Which doesn't change the fact that Jay Wright looks like Antonio Banderas.
3. Leon Powe, Cal: Cal's not a one-man team, but it's close. And here's the one man. With his history of knee problems and the thin draft pool this year, Powe should turn pro. Assuming Powe reads Ten for Tuesday religiously and is preparing his NBA application this very second, the Bears are going to drop back into the Pac-10 pack next season. That means Ben Braun goes back to life on the coaching bubble. I happen to like Braun, but that's just the way it is. We're all about truth, justice and chocolate ice cream here at Ten for Tuesday.
4. Jordan Farmar, UCLA: The Bruins will be an NCAA Tournament team next season even if he does turn pro, but Farmar would be the difference between just another NCAA Tournament team ... and another run to the Final Four. Darren Collison is better than most people realize, but he's a change-of-pace guard who's best suited, for now, in a complementary role. If Farmar goes pro, Collison becomes a 35-minute player. UCLA would be in good hands, but not great hands. As for you, sophomore Arron Afflalo, what are you thinking? Don't enter the draft. Use your free pass next year, when you might have a shot at the first round. Now? No shot. Is that clear enough? None. Zero.
5. Shannon Brown, Michigan State: Since I'm all about patting myself on the back, let me remind you that last season I thought Michigan State was a borderline Top 25 team. I was right. You were wrong. Does that earn me credibility to say this? Probably not in your eyes but here goes: If Brown turns pro, Michigan State won't make it into the 2007 NCAA Tournament. And there's no borderline there. With Brown, the Spartans are (probably) an NCAA tourney team. Without him? Definite NIT material. MSU fans, it is what it is ... not what you want it to be.
6. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas: Tactically speaking, Stan Heath doesn't do much for me. He's in fine company, considering Final Four coach John Brady of LSU and ex-Michigan national champ Steve Fisher of San Diego State don't do much for me, either. Having said that, Ronnie Brewer is the brains behind Arkansas basketball, and if he turns pro, Arkansas will become the most talented mid-level SEC team you've ever seen -- and Heath will be looking for an opening in the MAC.
7. Nick Fazekas, Nevada: The Wolf Pack has talent, but there's only one Fazekas, and if he leaves ... the WAC just got real interesting. With a horde of talented transfers set to become eligible in 2006-07, New Mexico State is poised to unseat Nevada, even if Fazekas returns. If Fazekas stays in the draft, New Mexico State will pass the Wolf Pack in a league where a second NCAA Tournament bid is no given.
8. Alexander Johnson, FSU: Florida State would be very good -- and only a notch or two below great -- if Johnson returns. He's a dominant center in a league losing some of its best big men (Craig Smith, Shelden Williams, Eric Williams, possibly Cedric Simmons and McRoberts). With Johnson, FSU is a no-brainer NCAA Tournament team in 2007, possibly a Sweet 16 contender. Without him, the Seminoles will slog into late February as they do every year, on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble.
9. Quincy Douby, Rutgers: With Douby, Rutgers has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament in Fred Hill's first year. And if that happens, watch out. Hill is a monster recruiter, New Jersey is loaded with talent, and a splashy debut season would set up Rutgers as a Big East heavyweight for years to come. However, if Douby goes pro and Rutgers falters, recruits (and fans) might start thinking, "Here we go again" -- and once hope is gone, so is the future. Ooh ... that was deep.
10. Will Blalock, Iowa State: The Cyclones won't be very good next year, regardless of what Blalock does. But "very good" isn't the goal -- respectability is. With point guard Blalock leading a decent cast of big men and wings, Iowa State would be respectable in Greg McDermott's first year, building crucial momentum for the future. This assumes a few things, however. One, Iowa State's other junior NBA hopeful, Curtis Stinson, is definitely not returning. And, two, Blalock is more receptive to the coaching of McDermott than he was to Wayne Morgan.
